Dorset West: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Dorset West: Overview

 Prediction: CON hold 

MP at 2017: Oliver Letwin  (CON)
County/Area: Dorset (South West)
Electorate: 79,043
Turnout: 75.4%
2017
Votes
2017
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON33,08155.5%52.5%
LIB13,99023.5%23.5%
LAB10,89618.3%17.3%
Green1,6312.7%3.8%
UKIP00.0%2.9%
CON Majority19,09132.0%Pred Maj 28.9%
Chance of
winning
CON
90%
LIB
6%
LAB
5%
Green
0%
UKIP
0%

Dorset West : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Dorset West constituency, the 'South West' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatSouth WestAll GB
Party WinnerCONCONCON
Economic Position2° Right1° Right
National Position1° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %51%53%52%
British Identity29%27%29%
Good Health44%47%48%
UK Born94%92%88%
Good Education43%40%39%
Good Job51%50%51%
High SEC55%52%51%
Average Age55.150.548.5
ABC1 Class54%54%53%

Dorset West ranks #384 for "Leave", #298 for "Right" and #395 for "National" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Dorset West: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Dorset West: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Dorset West

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Dorset West at the general election of 2017. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Dorset West. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results. The final block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

Dorset WestActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
West DorsetBeaminster20152,75702,10905480
West DorsetBridport North20154,7331,6213,69308240
West DorsetBridport South20152,7501,2142,86801,445961
West DorsetBroadmayne and Crossways20151,6162741,0760280168
West DorsetBroadwindsor201592203142272080
West DorsetBurton Bradstock2015935039003920
West DorsetCerne Valley20152,9005091,50706430
West DorsetChickerell and Chesil Bank20155,3349751,03909860
West DorsetChideock and Symondsbury2015823031803490
West DorsetDorchester East20157525082,19408830
West DorsetDorchester North20152,0864932,7164551,147762
West DorsetDorchester South20157864542,3094347210
West DorsetDorchester West20151,4096761,85405770
West DorsetFrome Valley20151,0990004240
West DorsetLyme Regis and Charmouth20152,93101,3870606196
West DorsetMaiden Newton2015940237003750
West DorsetNetherbury2015919040602750
West DorsetPiddle Valley20151,095182003150
West DorsetPuddletown201589322030001500
West DorsetQueen Thorne20151,017002742260
West DorsetSherborne East20152,33308715308020
West DorsetSherborne West20151,71201,71941000
West DorsetWinterborne St Martin201566620602312980
West DorsetYetminster and Cam Vale20152,86802,362000

Dorset WestTurnout-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
West DorsetBeaminster4,2651,65001,263032803,241
West DorsetBridport North6,1892,0487011,598035604,703
West DorsetBridport South5,3291,2055321,25706334214,048
West DorsetBroadmayne and Crossways1,2994677931108149987
West DorsetBroadwindsor2,096879029921619801,592
West DorsetBurton Bradstock2,1158750365036701,607
West DorsetCerne Valley4,0941,623285843036003,111
West DorsetChickerell and Chesil Bank5,7272,785509543051504,352
West DorsetChideock and Symondsbury1,9828320321035301,506
West DorsetDorchester East4,0625353621,562062803,087
West DorsetDorchester North4,4349182171,1952005053353,370
West DorsetDorchester South3,4254352511,27824039902,603
West DorsetDorchester West3,7288844241,163036202,833
West DorsetFrome Valley1,9051,04500040301,448
West DorsetLyme Regis and Charmouth4,0891,779084203681193,108
West DorsetMaiden Newton2,1669972510039801,646
West DorsetNetherbury2,0548970396026801,561
West DorsetPiddle Valley2,1091,1021830031701,602
West DorsetPuddletown1,802782193263013101,369
West DorsetQueen Thorne1,9881,0130027322501,511
West DorsetSherborne East3,9351,538057434952902,990
West DorsetSherborne West3,8841,31601,321315002,952
West DorsetWinterborne St Martin1,968711220024731801,496
West DorsetYetminster and Cam Vale3,7841,57701,2990002,876
 Total78,42927,8934,20716,6931,8408,04292459,599

The turnout-adjusted results are now combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

Dorset WestEst. 2017 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
West DorsetBeaminster4,2981,90834591107703,241
West DorsetBridport North6,2372,2951,0041,266013804,703
West DorsetBridport South5,3711,8979761,018015704,048
West DorsetBroadmayne and Crossways1,3095661512580120987
West DorsetBroadwindsor2,1121,09819225205001,592
West DorsetBurton Bradstock2,13296322234707501,607
West DorsetCerne Valley4,1261,85154964806203,110
West DorsetChickerell and Chesil Bank5,7722,72691863607204,352
West DorsetChideock and Symondsbury1,99894518032305901,507
West DorsetDorchester East4,0941,1038141,07709203,086
West DorsetDorchester North4,4691,382981893011403,370
West DorsetDorchester South3,45295771287306002,602
West DorsetDorchester West3,7571,18472585207102,832
West DorsetFrome Valley1,9201,07216715505401,448
West DorsetLyme Regis and Charmouth4,1211,93333174509903,108
West DorsetMaiden Newton2,1831,05537814806501,646
West DorsetNetherbury2,07099216932807201,561
West DorsetPiddle Valley2,1261,08826919604801,601
West DorsetPuddletown1,81684522127502801,369
West DorsetQueen Thorne2,0041,11623612403601,512
West DorsetSherborne East3,9661,84443960809902,990
West DorsetSherborne West3,9141,5963301,00602002,952
West DorsetWinterborne St Martin1,98391035318504801,496
West DorsetYetminster and Cam Vale3,8141,75623486602002,876
 Total78,42933,08210,89613,99001,628059,599

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Dorset West

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Dorset West.

Dorset WestPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
West DorsetBeaminster4,2981,8103249138511003,242
West DorsetBridport North6,2372,1529461,26914319304,703
West DorsetBridport South5,3711,7749261,02012320504,048
West DorsetBroadmayne and Crossways1,30953614225928230988
West DorsetBroadwindsor2,1121,050180253436701,593
West DorsetBurton Bradstock2,132914208348459201,607
West DorsetCerne Valley4,1261,757515650919703,110
West DorsetChickerell and Chesil Bank5,7722,59486463813212304,351
West DorsetChideock and Symondsbury1,998899169324417501,508
West DorsetDorchester East4,0941,0097761,0799412803,086
West DorsetDorchester North4,4691,28093989510315403,371
West DorsetDorchester South3,452878680874799102,602
West DorsetDorchester West3,7571,0986908548610402,832
West DorsetFrome Valley1,9201,028157156396901,449
West DorsetLyme Regis and Charmouth4,1211,8393107468213103,108
West DorsetMaiden Newton2,1831,005358149508401,646
West DorsetNetherbury2,070945159329418801,562
West DorsetPiddle Valley2,1261,039252197466601,600
West DorsetPuddletown1,816803207276394301,368
West DorsetQueen Thorne2,0041,070221125435301,512
West DorsetSherborne East3,9661,7534126108413102,990
West DorsetSherborne West3,9141,5063101,007785002,951
West DorsetWinterborne St Martin1,983865334186466601,497
West DorsetYetminster and Cam Vale3,8141,669219867724802,875
 Total78,42931,27310,29814,0241,7132,291059,599

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
Powered by TigerLib (11-Sep-2017 15:41)