Down North: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Down North: Overview

 Prediction: MIN hold 

MP at 2017: Lady Sylvia Hermon  (MIN)
County/Area: Down (Northern Ireland)
Electorate: 64,334
Turnout: 55.3%
2017
Votes
2017
Share
MIN16,14845.4%
DUP14,94042.0%
Green2,5497.2%
OTH9782.8%
SF5311.5%
SDLP4001.1%
MIN Majority1,2083.4%

EU Referendum vote:

Remain 52%
48% Leave

Down North ranks #451 for "Leave" out of 650 seats.

Down North: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Down North: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Down North

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Down North at the general election of 2017. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Down North. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results. The final block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

Down NorthActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
UUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
Other
Votes
BelfastGarnerville201435914492881188783
North Down and ArdsBallycrochan2014172029449350359
North Down and ArdsBallygrainey2014199035474960542
North Down and ArdsBallyholme2014154027357740419
North Down and ArdsBallymagee2014233039966480486
North Down and ArdsBloomfield2014168030063810459
North Down and ArdsBroadway2014152027157730415
North Down and ArdsBryansburn2014168513310670422
North Down and ArdsCarrowdore20142042365810066147
North Down and ArdsCastle2014166029662800454
North Down and ArdsClandeboye20142005635901670342
North Down and ArdsCultra20142035736401700347
North Down and ArdsDonaghadee2014230039465470480
North Down and ArdsGroomsport2014202034557410421
North Down and ArdsHarbour2014192034172920522
North Down and ArdsHelen's Bay20141935434701620331
North Down and ArdsHolywood20142386742701990407
North Down and ArdsKilcooley2014195593860780492
North Down and ArdsLoughries20141802095130058129
North Down and ArdsLoughview20142607346702180446
North Down and ArdsRathgael2014160483150640402
North Down and ArdsRathmore2014169513340670426
North Down and ArdsSilverbirch2014237040567480494
North Down and ArdsSilverstream2014178543510710447
North Down and ArdsWarren2014221037963450461

Down NorthTurnout-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
UUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
BelfastGarnerville2192313268151122
North Down and ArdsBallycrochan2,1872290392654704781,211
North Down and ArdsBallygrainey3,413297052911114308101,890
North Down and ArdsBallyholme2,63823004088511106261,460
North Down and ArdsBallymagee2,9613100531886406471,640
North Down and ArdsBloomfield2,89325104499412106861,601
North Down and ArdsBroadway2,61322704058510906201,446
North Down and ArdsBryansburn2,5812317045509205801,428
North Down and ArdsCarrowdore8417789219002555465
North Down and ArdsCastle2,85824804439312006791,583
North Down and ArdsClandeboye2,64126073467021704451,462
North Down and ArdsCultra2,67626474473022104511,483
North Down and ArdsDonaghadee2,9243060525876306391,620
North Down and ArdsGroomsport2,5642690459765505611,420
North Down and ArdsHarbour3,290287051010813707801,822
North Down and ArdsHelen's Bay2,55025170451021004301,412
North Down and ArdsHolywood3,14030987555025905291,739
North Down and ArdsKilcooley3,00726881531010706771,664
North Down and ArdsLoughries1,155106123301003476640
North Down and ArdsLoughview3,43833895607028305801,903
North Down and ArdsRathgael2,4572206643308805531,360
North Down and ArdsRathmore2,6062337046009205871,442
North Down and ArdsSilverbirch3,0103160539896406581,666
North Down and ArdsSilverstream2,7332457448209806141,513
North Down and ArdsWarren2,8122940505846006141,557
 Total64,2076,08997311,1611,0712,7696013,42635,549

The turnout-adjusted results are now combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

Down NorthEst. 2017 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
UUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
BelfastGarnerville219004607365121
North Down and ArdsBallycrochan2,19100534043186161,211
North Down and ArdsBallygrainey3,420007280132251,0051,890
North Down and ArdsBallyholme2,643005620102197761,459
North Down and ArdsBallymagee2,96700723059248351,641
North Down and ArdsBloomfield2,899006180111218511,601
North Down and ArdsBroadway2,618005570100197691,445
North Down and ArdsBryansburn2,586029588085177111,430
North Down and ArdsCarrowdore8430372810033116467
North Down and ArdsCastle2,864006100110218421,583
North Down and ArdsClandeboye2,6460306190200195941,462
North Down and ArdsCultra2,6810306280203196021,482
North Down and ArdsDonaghadee2,93000714058248241,620
North Down and ArdsGroomsport2,56900625051217231,420
North Down and ArdsHarbour3,297007030126249691,822
North Down and ArdsHelen's Bay2,5550295980193185741,412
North Down and ArdsHolywood3,1460367360238237061,739
North Down and ArdsKilcooley3,013033685098198281,663
North Down and ArdsLoughries1,1570513860045159641
North Down and ArdsLoughview3,4450398050261257741,904
North Down and ArdsRathgael2,462027559081166771,360
North Down and ArdsRathmore2,611029594085177181,443
North Down and ArdsSilverbirch3,01600734059248481,665
North Down and ArdsSilverstream2,738030623090187521,513
North Down and ArdsWarren2,81800687055237921,557
 Total64,207040014,94302,54753517,12635,549

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Down North

This table shows the estimated 2017 general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Down North.

Down NorthEst. 2017 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
UUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
BelfastGarnerville219004607365121
North Down and ArdsBallycrochan2,19100534043186161,211
North Down and ArdsBallygrainey3,420007280132251,0051,890
North Down and ArdsBallyholme2,643005620102197761,459
North Down and ArdsBallymagee2,96700723059248351,641
North Down and ArdsBloomfield2,899006180111218511,601
North Down and ArdsBroadway2,618005570100197691,445
North Down and ArdsBryansburn2,586029588085177111,430
North Down and ArdsCarrowdore8430372810033116467
North Down and ArdsCastle2,864006100110218421,583
North Down and ArdsClandeboye2,6460306190200195941,462
North Down and ArdsCultra2,6810306280203196021,482
North Down and ArdsDonaghadee2,93000714058248241,620
North Down and ArdsGroomsport2,56900625051217231,420
North Down and ArdsHarbour3,297007030126249691,822
North Down and ArdsHelen's Bay2,5550295980193185741,412
North Down and ArdsHolywood3,1460367360238237061,739
North Down and ArdsKilcooley3,013033685098198281,663
North Down and ArdsLoughries1,1570513860045159641
North Down and ArdsLoughview3,4450398050261257741,904
North Down and ArdsRathgael2,462027559081166771,360
North Down and ArdsRathmore2,611029594085177181,443
North Down and ArdsSilverbirch3,01600734059248481,665
North Down and ArdsSilverstream2,738030623090187521,513
North Down and ArdsWarren2,81800687055237921,557
 Total64,207040014,94302,54753517,12635,551

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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