Down South: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Down South: Overview

 Prediction: SF hold 

MP at 2017: Chris Hazzard  (SF)
County/Area: Down (Northern Ireland)
Electorate: 75,685
Turnout: 67.2%
2017
Votes
2017
Share
SF20,32839.9%
SDLP17,88235.1%
DUP8,86717.4%
UUP2,0023.9%
MIN1,8143.6%
NAT Majority2,4464.8%

EU Referendum vote:

Remain 67%
33% Leave

Down South ranks #601 for "Leave" out of 650 seats.

Down South: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Down South: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Down South

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Down South at the general election of 2017. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Down South. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results. The final block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

Down SouthActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
UUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
Other
Votes
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonBanbridge East201461321635600184124
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonGransha2014525636810054349
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonLoughbrickland201468024039500204138
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonRathfriland201468824340000207139
Newry, Mourne and DownAbbey201457415000486356
Newry, Mourne and DownAnnalong2014265372140282044559
Newry, Mourne and DownBallydugan2014130310184730405145
Newry, Mourne and DownBallyward2014141337201800441157
Newry, Mourne and DownBinnian2014262367138279043958
Newry, Mourne and DownBurren20141346113200486143
Newry, Mourne and DownCastlewellan2014155369220880483172
Newry, Mourne and DownCathedral2014756662900370168
Newry, Mourne and DownCrossgar and Killyleagh201438127739800116285
Newry, Mourne and DownDamolly201464462000540396
Newry, Mourne and DownDerryboy201436026137500109269
Newry, Mourne and DownDerryleckagh20141516873700546161
Newry, Mourne and DownDonard2014249348131264041755
Newry, Mourne and DownDrumaness2014144344205820450161
Newry, Mourne and DownDundrum2014149356212840465166
Newry, Mourne and DownHilltown20141657534000599177
Newry, Mourne and DownKilkeel2014251351132267042155
Newry, Mourne and DownKnocknashinna2014847433200413188
Newry, Mourne and DownLecale2014766752900375171
Newry, Mourne and DownLisnacree2014305427161325051167
Newry, Mourne and DownMayobridge20141617353900585173
Newry, Mourne and DownMurlough2014257359135273043057
Newry, Mourne and DownQuoile2014686072600337154
Newry, Mourne and DownRostrevor20141587193800572169
Newry, Mourne and DownSt Patrick's201469501000586429
Newry, Mourne and DownStrangford2014706252700347158
Newry, Mourne and DownTollymore2014257360135273043157
Newry, Mourne and DownWarrenpoint20141647464000593175

Down SouthTurnout-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
UUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonBanbridge East77021475124006443520
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonGransha68514617189001597464
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonLoughbrickland98627497159008256668
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonRathfriland3,298915323532002751852,230
Newry, Mourne and DownAbbey2397510006044162
Newry, Mourne and DownAnnalong2,8453264581723470548731,924
Newry, Mourne and DownBallydugan2,52717842525210005551991,709
Newry, Mourne and DownBallyward2,62318444126310505772051,775
Newry, Mourne and DownBinnian2,8093234521703440541711,901
Newry, Mourne and DownBurren2,72517680142006371881,844
Newry, Mourne and DownCastlewellan3,01321350630212106622362,040
Newry, Mourne and DownCathedral2,81310996942005382441,902
Newry, Mourne and DownCrossgar and Killyleagh1,1872101532190064157803
Newry, Mourne and DownDamolly55716119000139102376
Newry, Mourne and DownDerryboy409735376002254278
Newry, Mourne and DownDerryleckagh3,06519890149007162112,075
Newry, Mourne and DownDonard2,6643074281613250513681,802
Newry, Mourne and DownDrumaness2,80619747128111206162211,898
Newry, Mourne and DownDundrum2,90220448829111506382281,964
Newry, Mourne and DownHilltown3,36021698752007852322,272
Newry, Mourne and DownKilkeel2,6913094331633290519681,821
Newry, Mourne and DownKnocknashinna3,1411221,08247006012742,126
Newry, Mourne and DownLecale2,85211198242005462491,930
Newry, Mourne and DownLisnacree3,2713765261984010630832,214
Newry, Mourne and DownMayobridge2,98519287747006982062,020
Newry, Mourne and DownMurlough2,7513174421663360530701,861
Newry, Mourne and DownQuoile2,5649988338004902241,734
Newry, Mourne and DownRostrevor3,20620794250007492212,169
Newry, Mourne and DownSt Patrick's74922160000187137506
Newry, Mourne and DownStrangford2,63910291039005052301,786
Newry, Mourne and DownTollymore2,7553174441663360531701,864
Newry, Mourne and DownWarrenpoint3,32921597852007772292,251
 Total75,2166,87516,8744,3842,971014,8104,97550,889

The turnout-adjusted results are now combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

Down SouthEst. 2017 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
UUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonBanbridge East77562911970015416520
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonGransha6894332256009835464
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonLoughbrickland992801182530019720668
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonRathfriland3,31926639384400659672,229
Newry, Mourne and DownAbbey24025413007616161
Newry, Mourne and DownAnnalong2,8639551542600861271,924
Newry, Mourne and DownBallydugan2,5435245739600732731,710
Newry, Mourne and DownBallyward2,6395447441200760751,775
Newry, Mourne and DownBinnian2,8279450942200851261,902
Newry, Mourne and DownBurren2,7425182314100759691,843
Newry, Mourne and DownCastlewellan3,0326254547400873862,040
Newry, Mourne and DownCathedral2,8313299013700654891,902
Newry, Mourne and DownCrossgar and Killyleagh1,194611763200018957803
Newry, Mourne and DownDamolly5605126310017737376
Newry, Mourne and DownDerryboy4122161111006520278
Newry, Mourne and DownDerryleckagh3,0845892616100854772,076
Newry, Mourne and DownDonard2,6818948240000807251,803
Newry, Mourne and DownDrumaness2,8235750744100813811,899
Newry, Mourne and DownDundrum2,9205952545600841831,964
Newry, Mourne and DownHilltown3,381631,01517400936852,273
Newry, Mourne and DownKilkeel2,7089048740400815251,821
Newry, Mourne and DownKnocknashinna3,161361,106153007321002,127
Newry, Mourne and DownLecale2,870321,00413800665911,930
Newry, Mourne and DownLisnacree3,29110959249100991302,213
Newry, Mourne and DownMayobridge3,0045690115600832752,020
Newry, Mourne and DownMurlough2,7689249741200833261,860
Newry, Mourne and DownQuoile2,5802990212500597821,735
Newry, Mourne and DownRostrevor3,2266096816700893812,169
Newry, Mourne and DownSt Patrick's7546169420023850505
Newry, Mourne and DownStrangford2,6553093012800614841,786
Newry, Mourne and DownTollymore2,7729249941200834261,863
Newry, Mourne and DownWarrenpoint3,350631,00517300926832,250
 Total75,2162,00117,8798,8660020,3261,81750,889

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Down South

This table shows the estimated 2017 general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Down South.

Down SouthEst. 2017 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
UUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonBanbridge East77562911970015416520
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonGransha6894332256009835464
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonLoughbrickland992801182530019720668
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonRathfriland3,31926639384400659672,229
Newry, Mourne and DownAbbey24025413007616161
Newry, Mourne and DownAnnalong2,8639551542600861271,924
Newry, Mourne and DownBallydugan2,5435245739600732731,710
Newry, Mourne and DownBallyward2,6395447441200760751,775
Newry, Mourne and DownBinnian2,8279450942200851261,902
Newry, Mourne and DownBurren2,7425182314100759691,843
Newry, Mourne and DownCastlewellan3,0326254547400873862,040
Newry, Mourne and DownCathedral2,8313299013700654891,902
Newry, Mourne and DownCrossgar and Killyleagh1,194611763200018957803
Newry, Mourne and DownDamolly5605126310017737376
Newry, Mourne and DownDerryboy4122161111006520278
Newry, Mourne and DownDerryleckagh3,0845892616100854772,076
Newry, Mourne and DownDonard2,6818948240000807251,803
Newry, Mourne and DownDrumaness2,8235750744100813811,899
Newry, Mourne and DownDundrum2,9205952545600841831,964
Newry, Mourne and DownHilltown3,381631,01517400936852,273
Newry, Mourne and DownKilkeel2,7089048740400815251,821
Newry, Mourne and DownKnocknashinna3,161361,106153007321002,127
Newry, Mourne and DownLecale2,870321,00413800665911,930
Newry, Mourne and DownLisnacree3,29110959249100991302,213
Newry, Mourne and DownMayobridge3,0045690115600832752,020
Newry, Mourne and DownMurlough2,7689249741200833261,860
Newry, Mourne and DownQuoile2,5802990212500597821,735
Newry, Mourne and DownRostrevor3,2266096816700893812,169
Newry, Mourne and DownSt Patrick's7546169420023850505
Newry, Mourne and DownStrangford2,6553093012800614841,786
Newry, Mourne and DownTollymore2,7729249941200834261,863
Newry, Mourne and DownWarrenpoint3,350631,00517300926832,250
 Total75,2162,00117,8798,8660020,3261,81750,889

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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