Durham North West: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Durham North West: Overview

 Prediction: LAB hold 

MP at 2017: Laura Pidcock  (LAB)
County/Area: Durham (North East)
Electorate: 71,982
Turnout: 66.5%
2017
Votes
2017
Share
Predicted
Votes
LAB25,30852.8%51.8%
CON16,51634.5%31.5%
LIB3,3987.1%7.1%
UKIP2,1504.5%7.3%
Green5301.1%2.2%
LAB Majority8,79218.4%Pred Maj 20.4%
Chance of
winning
LAB
81%
CON
19%
LIB
0%
UKIP
0%
Green
0%

Durham North West : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Durham North West constituency, the 'North East' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatNorth EastAll GB
Party WinnerLABLABCON
Economic Position10° Left8° Left
National Position3° Nat4° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %58%58%52%
British Identity25%26%29%
Good Health43%44%48%
UK Born97%95%88%
Good Education36%35%39%
Good Job47%46%51%
High SEC45%44%51%
Average Age50.449.048.5
ABC1 Class46%47%53%

Durham North West ranks #225 for "Leave", #516 for "Right" and #292 for "National" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Durham North West: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Durham North West: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Durham North West

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Durham North West at the general election of 2017. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Durham North West. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results. The final block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

Durham North WestActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
DurhamBenfieldside201301,386441002,005
DurhamBurnopfield and Dipton201301,3890002,236
DurhamConsett North201309721,41525301,173
DurhamConsett South20130265000306
DurhamCrook201302,05242903003,480
DurhamDeerness20134314,8441,348001,367
DurhamDelves Lane201301,842000581
DurhamEsh and Witton Gilbert20131911,7621,32980000
DurhamLanchester20132751,94707530876
DurhamLeadgate and Medomsley20132061,6850002,560
DurhamTow Law20130399000488
DurhamWeardale20133399830003,178
DurhamWillington and Hunwick20134861,778000731

Durham North WestTurnout-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
DurhamBenfieldside6,07301,507480002,1804,167
DurhamBurnopfield and Dipton6,02301,5830002,5494,132
DurhamConsett North6,14401,0751,56428001,2974,216
DurhamConsett South2,90009230001,0661,989
DurhamCrook9,07902,04242702983,4626,229
DurhamDeerness76728319890090526
DurhamDelves Lane6,27403,2720001,0324,304
DurhamEsh and Witton Gilbert4,1941351,242937564002,878
DurhamLanchester5,6572771,962075908833,881
DurhamLeadgate and Medomsley6,6722121,7330002,6334,578
DurhamTow Law3,42601,0570001,2932,350
DurhamWeardale6,1243179180002,9674,202
DurhamWillington and Hunwick6,4837222,6410001,0864,449
 Total69,8161,69120,2743,4971,60329820,53847,901

The turnout-adjusted results are now combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

Durham North WestEst. 2017 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
DurhamBenfieldside6,2611,5432,0254621092904,168
DurhamBurnopfield and Dipton6,2101,6952,0881441307604,133
DurhamConsett North6,3351,0472,0018892354304,215
DurhamConsett South2,9906381,20657701801,989
DurhamCrook9,3612,2173,12645725117906,230
DurhamDeerness79112233557930526
DurhamDelves Lane6,4691,0962,9201441351004,305
DurhamEsh and Witton Gilbert4,3246241,3545623211702,878
DurhamLanchester5,8331,3221,9701264402403,882
DurhamLeadgate and Medomsley6,8791,7442,5001731253504,577
DurhamTow Law3,5327731,420361031902,351
DurhamWeardale6,3142,2161,638189986204,203
DurhamWillington and Hunwick6,6841,4782,7271021251704,449
 Total69,81616,51525,3103,3982,151532047,901

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Durham North West

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Durham North West.

Durham North WestPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
DurhamBenfieldside6,2611,4171,9834642287504,167
DurhamBurnopfield and Dipton6,2101,5702,04614624812204,132
DurhamConsett North6,3359201,9598913569004,216
DurhamConsett South2,9905781,186581274001,989
DurhamCrook9,3612,0293,06346042924806,229
DurhamDeerness791106330572490526
DurhamDelves Lane6,4699662,8771462585804,305
DurhamEsh and Witton Gilbert4,3245371,3255644034902,878
DurhamLanchester5,8331,2051,9311285516703,882
DurhamLeadgate and Medomsley6,8791,6062,4541752568604,577
DurhamTow Law3,5327021,396371704502,350
DurhamWeardale6,3142,0891,59619121810804,202
DurhamWillington and Hunwick6,6841,3442,6821042526604,448
 Total69,81615,06924,8283,4213,5201,063047,901

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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