Dwyfor Meirionnydd: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Dwyfor Meirionnydd: Overview

 Prediction: Plaid hold 

MP at 2017: Liz Roberts  (Plaid)
County/Area: Gwynedd (Wales)
Electorate: 44,699
Turnout: 67.9%
2017
Votes
2017
Share
Predicted
Votes
Plaid13,68745.1%45.1%
CON8,83729.1%26.0%
LAB6,27320.7%19.7%
LIB9373.1%3.1%
UKIP6142.0%4.9%
Green00.0%1.1%
NAT Majority4,85016.0%Pred Maj 19.1%
Chance of
winning
Plaid
68%
CON
19%
LAB
13%
LIB
0%
UKIP
0%
Green
0%

Dwyfor Meirionnydd : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Dwyfor Meirionnydd constituency, the 'Wales' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatWalesAll GB
Party WinnerPlaidLABCON
Economic Position14° Left10° Left
National Position5° Int3° Int1° Int
EU Leave %45%53%52%
British Identity22%26%29%
Good Health48%47%48%
UK Born97%95%88%
Good Education36%36%39%
Good Job41%46%51%
High SEC43%46%51%
Average Age54.049.648.5
ABC1 Class42%47%53%

Dwyfor Meirionnydd ranks #495 for "Leave", #573 for "Right" and #471 for "National" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Dwyfor Meirionnydd: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Dwyfor Meirionnydd: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Dwyfor Meirionnydd

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Dwyfor Meirionnydd at the general election of 2017. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Dwyfor Meirionnydd. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results. The final block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

Dwyfor MeirionnyddActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
Other
Votes
GwyneddAberdaron201200000274211
GwyneddAberdovey2012000000-1
GwyneddAbererch201200000101403
GwyneddAbermaw201202570003620
GwyneddAbersoch201200000-10
GwyneddBala201200000-10
GwyneddBotwnnog201200000193208
GwyneddBowydd and Rhiw201200000-10
GwyneddBrithdir and Llanfachreth / Ganllwyd / Llanelltyd201200000527121
GwyneddBryn-crug / Llanfihangel201200000136364
GwyneddClynnog201200000156329
GwyneddCorris / Mawddwy2012000000-1
GwyneddCriccieth2012980000133461
GwyneddDiffwys and Maenofferen20120000030992
GwyneddDolbenmaen201200-10000
GwyneddDolgellau North201200000243199
GwyneddDolgellau South201200000326222
GwyneddDyffryn Ardudwy2012000000-1
GwyneddEfail-newydd / Buan201200000157399
GwyneddHarlech201200000471187
GwyneddLlanaelhaearn20120000085623
GwyneddLlanbedr201200000261184
GwyneddLlanbedrog201200000219255
GwyneddLlandderfel201200000-10
GwyneddLlanengan201200000145274
GwyneddLlangelynin2012000000731
GwyneddLlanuwchllyn201200000-10
GwyneddLlanystumdwy201200000512212
GwyneddMorfa Nefyn201200000378110
GwyneddNefyn201200000199415
GwyneddPenrhyndeudraeth201200000655258
GwyneddPorthmadog East201200000195340
GwyneddPorthmadog West201200000-10
GwyneddPorthmadog-Tremadog201200000175392
GwyneddPwllheli North201200000358336
GwyneddPwllheli South201200000252374
GwyneddTeigl201200000-10
GwyneddTrawsfynydd2012000000-1
GwyneddTudweiliog201200000141220
GwyneddTywyn201224700004011,555

Dwyfor MeirionnyddTurnout-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
GwyneddAberdaron68500000265204469
GwyneddAberdovey915000000625625
GwyneddAbererch97400000133532665
GwyneddAbermaw1,835052100073401,255
GwyneddAbersoch571000003900390
GwyneddBala1,437000009820982
GwyneddBotwnnog70900000233251484
GwyneddBowydd and Rhiw1,376000009410941
GwyneddBrithdir and Llanfachreth / Ganllwyd / Llanelltyd1,05900000589135724
GwyneddBryn-crug / Llanfihangel69700000130347477
GwyneddClynnog72400000159336495
GwyneddCorris / Mawddwy981000000671671
GwyneddCriccieth1,2671230000166577866
GwyneddDiffwys and Maenofferen80700000425127552
GwyneddDolbenmaen881006020000602
GwyneddDolgellau North88100000331271602
GwyneddDolgellau South1,07400000437297734
GwyneddDyffryn Ardudwy1,109000000758758
GwyneddEfail-newydd / Buan90300000174443617
GwyneddHarlech1,45700000713283996
GwyneddLlanaelhaearn1,22200000100735835
GwyneddLlanbedr78900000316223539
GwyneddLlanbedrog71600000226263489
GwyneddLlandderfel1,076000007360736
GwyneddLlanengan88100000208394602
GwyneddLlangelynin1,439000000984984
GwyneddLlanuwchllyn640000004370437
GwyneddLlanystumdwy1,523000007363051,041
GwyneddMorfa Nefyn90700000480140620
GwyneddNefyn99700000221461682
GwyneddPenrhyndeudraeth1,874000009193621,281
GwyneddPorthmadog East1,29100000322561883
GwyneddPorthmadog West1,256000008590859
GwyneddPorthmadog-Tremadog90800000192429621
GwyneddPwllheli North1,587000005605251,085
GwyneddPwllheli South1,36600000376558934
GwyneddTeigl1,364000009320932
GwyneddTrawsfynydd1,136000000777777
GwyneddTudweiliog70900000189295484
GwyneddTywyn2,37218200002951,1451,622
 Total44,3953055216020014,90614,01430,348

The turnout-adjusted results are now combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

Dwyfor MeirionnyddEst. 2017 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
GwyneddAberdaron6901287810502460467
GwyneddAberdovey92131116941130910625
GwyneddAbererch981251168121902160666
GwyneddAbermaw1,8482703586118054801,255
GwyneddAbersoch5751053911402320391
GwyneddBala1,4471358313707450983
GwyneddBotwnnog7141457721702350485
GwyneddBowydd and Rhiw1,3857617422006690941
GwyneddBrithdir and Llanfachreth / Ganllwyd / Llanelltyd1,0662066521704250724
GwyneddBryn-crug / Llanfihangel70220110115801520477
GwyneddClynnog72914613951801870495
GwyneddCorris / Mawddwy988268205162601550670
GwyneddCriccieth1,276376184271302650865
GwyneddDiffwys and Maenofferen813801379903180553
GwyneddDolbenmaen8876766320901410603
GwyneddDolgellau North887185115191202710602
GwyneddDolgellau South1,0811931757703520734
GwyneddDyffryn Ardudwy1,117357211242301440759
GwyneddEfail-newydd / Buan90921312571402580617
GwyneddHarlech1,467226191262405280995
GwyneddLlanaelhaearn1,230263283182202490835
GwyneddLlanbedr794179978502500539
GwyneddLlanbedrog721168874702240490
GwyneddLlandderfel1,083133483905440737
GwyneddLlanengan88723399161602390603
GwyneddLlangelynin1,449470256464701660985
GwyneddLlanuwchllyn64474382303200437
GwyneddLlanystumdwy1,533231190413060301,041
GwyneddMorfa Nefyn913170815403590619
GwyneddNefyn1,004198169162802700681
GwyneddPenrhyndeudraeth1,8872252941210074101,282
GwyneddPorthmadog East1,300262240111503560884
GwyneddPorthmadog West1,26519973111205650860
GwyneddPorthmadog-Tremadog914208139181002450620
GwyneddPwllheli North1,5983252451319048301,085
GwyneddPwllheli South1,37527722782204000934
GwyneddTeigl1,3731051305406890933
GwyneddTrawsfynydd1,144298246112701950777
GwyneddTudweiliog7141619015702110484
GwyneddTywyn2,3887193825860040401,623
 Total44,3958,8376,274941613013,691030,348

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Dwyfor Meirionnydd

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Dwyfor Meirionnydd.

Dwyfor MeirionnyddPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
GwyneddAberdaron69011373101952460466
GwyneddAberdovey92129016241338910625
GwyneddAbererch981229160124082160665
GwyneddAbermaw1,84822834362581554801,254
GwyneddAbersoch575923712542320391
GwyneddBala1,44711378132677450982
GwyneddBotwnnog71412973212262350486
GwyneddBowydd and Rhiw1,3856316423666690940
GwyneddBrithdir and Llanfachreth / Ganllwyd / Llanelltyd1,06618261212784250724
GwyneddBryn-crug / Llanfihangel70218595152361520476
GwyneddClynnog72913013353461870495
GwyneddCorris / Mawddwy988246197164781550669
GwyneddCriccieth1,2763471742741112650865
GwyneddDiffwys and Maenofferen8136713192353180553
GwyneddDolbenmaen88756623202041410603
GwyneddDolgellau North887165108193172710601
GwyneddDolgellau South1,08116916773093520734
GwyneddDyffryn Ardudwy1,117332202244791440758
GwyneddEfail-newydd / Buan90919311873482580618
GwyneddHarlech1,4671931802755125280995
GwyneddLlanaelhaearn1,2302352731849102490834
GwyneddLlanbedr7941619182262500538
GwyneddLlanbedrog7211528242262240490
GwyneddLlandderfel1,0831114532775440737
GwyneddLlanengan88721393163472390602
GwyneddLlangelynin1,4494372454778121660985
GwyneddLlanuwchllyn644623621343200437
GwyneddLlanystumdwy1,5331971795451360301,042
GwyneddMorfa Nefyn9131507652273590619
GwyneddNefyn1,004175161165082700680
GwyneddPenrhyndeudraeth1,88718827913471474101,282
GwyneddPorthmadog East1,3002332301243113560885
GwyneddPorthmadog West1,26517169113595650860
GwyneddPorthmadog-Tremadog914187132183082450620
GwyneddPwllheli North1,59828923214541348301,085
GwyneddPwllheli South1,375246216952114000934
GwyneddTeigl1,3738812252276890933
GwyneddTrawsfynydd1,1442722371152101950777
GwyneddTudweiliog71414585152262110484
GwyneddTywyn2,388665363591122040401,623
 Total44,3957,8995,9649501,50234113,691030,347

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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