Eddisbury: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Eddisbury: Overview

 Prediction: CON hold 

MP at 2017: Antoinette Sandbach  (CON)
County/Area: Cheshire (North West)
Electorate: 70,272
Turnout: 73.0%
2017
Votes
2017
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON29,19256.9%52.9%
LAB17,25033.6%34.0%
LIB2,8045.5%5.5%
UKIP1,1092.2%4.7%
Green7851.5%2.1%
OTH1790.3%0.8%
CON Majority11,94223.3%Pred Maj 18.9%
Chance of
winning
CON
79%
LAB
21%
LIB
0%
UKIP
0%
Green
0%
OTH
0%

Eddisbury : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Eddisbury constituency, the 'North West' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatNorth WestAll GB
Party WinnerCONLABCON
Economic Position6° Right6° Left
National Position6° Nat2° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %53%54%52%
British Identity29%28%29%
Good Health49%46%48%
UK Born97%92%88%
Good Education42%37%39%
Good Job54%49%51%
High SEC56%48%51%
Average Age51.748.648.5
ABC1 Class56%50%53%

Eddisbury ranks #331 for "Leave", #205 for "Right" and #237 for "National" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Eddisbury: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Eddisbury: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Eddisbury

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Eddisbury at the general election of 2017. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Eddisbury. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results. The final block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

EddisburyActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Cheshire EastAudlem20151,7063721623172430
Cheshire EastBrereton Rural20152,062445416000
Cheshire EastBunbury20151,864470003200
Cheshire EastLeighton20151,08962104520448
Cheshire EastWrenbury20151,89032702892070
Cheshire West and ChesterChester Villages20155,4782,2605875858770
Cheshire West and ChesterDavenham and Moulton20159,5166,5297981,89400
Cheshire West and ChesterFarndon20151,13824499001240
Cheshire West and ChesterGowy20151,3673671462111510
Cheshire West and ChesterMalpas20151,24120600162777
Cheshire West and ChesterTarporley20151,938429510000
Cheshire West and ChesterTarvin and Kelsall20155,0021,2972,02304910
Cheshire West and ChesterTattenhall20151,41443944840600
Cheshire West and ChesterWeaver and Cuddington20158,9545,1209281,3578201,764
Cheshire West and ChesterWinsford Over and Verdin20154,7466,1172,0001,0596960
Cheshire West and ChesterWinsford Swanlow and Dene20151,6052,9831,7127052240
Cheshire West and ChesterWinsford Wharton20151,8293,70578805160

EddisburyTurnout-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
Cheshire EastAudlem3,7861,72537616432024602,831
Cheshire EastBrereton Rural1981042321000148
Cheshire EastBunbury3,6831,9344880033202,754
Cheshire EastLeighton111352001401483
Cheshire EastWrenbury3,6991,927333029521102,766
Cheshire West and ChesterChester Villages1,639686283747311001,226
Cheshire West and ChesterDavenham and Moulton4,2811,6261,115136324003,201
Cheshire West and ChesterFarndon3,0181,029221895011202,257
Cheshire West and ChesterGowy2,2341,01827310915711301,670
Cheshire West and ChesterMalpas3,1921,241206001627772,386
Cheshire West and ChesterTarporley3,5371,7813944690002,644
Cheshire West and ChesterTarvin and Kelsall6,6322,8147301,138027604,958
Cheshire West and ChesterTattenhall3,4841,361422431391002,605
Cheshire West and ChesterWeaver and Cuddington4,2691,5098631562291382973,192
Cheshire West and ChesterWinsford Over and Verdin9,8152,3833,0711,00453234907,339
Cheshire West and ChesterWinsford Swanlow and Dene7,2291,2002,2301,28052716705,404
Cheshire West and ChesterWinsford Wharton7,8281,5663,171674044205,853
 Total68,63523,93914,2196,5512,8622,6581,08851,317

The turnout-adjusted results are now combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

EddisburyEst. 2017 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
Cheshire EastAudlem3,8762,02758870806142,830
Cheshire EastBrereton Rural203111306010148
Cheshire EastBunbury3,7712,0005897667762,754
Cheshire EastLeighton1144727440183
Cheshire EastWrenbury3,7872,09251739664942,767
Cheshire West and ChesterChester Villages1,67875735369143111,225
Cheshire West and ChesterDavenham and Moulton4,3831,8141,163967544103,202
Cheshire West and ChesterFarndon3,0901,46951422554212,256
Cheshire West and ChesterGowy2,2871,12542362352321,670
Cheshire West and ChesterMalpas3,2681,700520462034662,386
Cheshire West and ChesterTarporley3,6211,9035132097842,644
Cheshire West and ChesterTarvin and Kelsall6,7903,3101,12144187454,959
Cheshire West and ChesterTattenhall3,5671,703662147801222,606
Cheshire West and ChesterWeaver and Cuddington4,3711,7611,0951787157313,193
Cheshire West and ChesterWinsford Over and Verdin10,0493,1653,42135729090177,340
Cheshire West and ChesterWinsford Swanlow and Dene7,4012,0332,61347220770105,405
Cheshire West and ChesterWinsford Wharton8,0152,1773,101308143110155,854
 Total68,63529,19417,2502,8051,11178317951,317

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Eddisbury

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Eddisbury.

EddisburyPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
Cheshire EastAudlem3,8761,9156007015176182,830
Cheshire EastBrereton Rural203105316421149
Cheshire EastBunbury3,7711,891600767592202,754
Cheshire EastLeighton1144427460182
Cheshire EastWrenbury3,7871,9825283913564182,766
Cheshire West and ChesterChester Villages1,67870835869453871,225
Cheshire West and ChesterDavenham and Moulton4,3831,6871,1769615562263,202
Cheshire West and ChesterFarndon3,0901,3795232256254122,255
Cheshire West and ChesterGowy2,2871,059430627732101,670
Cheshire West and ChesterMalpas3,2681,605530468047782,386
Cheshire West and ChesterTarporley3,6211,7985242097322172,643
Cheshire West and ChesterTarvin and Kelsall6,7903,1131,141441132101294,957
Cheshire West and ChesterTattenhall3,5671,60067314714526152,606
Cheshire West and ChesterWeaver and Cuddington4,3711,6341,10817815174473,192
Cheshire West and ChesterWinsford Over and Verdin10,0492,8743,451358474130537,340
Cheshire West and ChesterWinsford Swanlow and Dene7,4011,8182,635472343100375,405
Cheshire West and ChesterWinsford Wharton8,0151,9453,125308290142445,854
 Total68,63527,15717,4602,8062,3981,06243351,316

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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