Epping Forest: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Epping Forest: Overview

 Prediction: CON hold 

MP at 2017: Eleanor Laing  (CON)
County/Area: Essex (Anglia)
Electorate: 74,737
Turnout: 67.9%
2017
Votes
2017
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON31,46262.0%58.2%
LAB13,21926.0%26.4%
LIB2,8845.7%5.7%
UKIP1,8713.7%6.0%
Green1,2332.4%2.9%
OTH1100.2%0.7%
CON Majority18,24335.9%Pred Maj 31.8%
Chance of
winning
CON
92%
LAB
8%
LIB
0%
UKIP
0%
Green
0%
OTH
0%

Epping Forest : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Epping Forest constituency, the 'Anglia' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatAngliaAll GB
Party WinnerCONCONCON
Economic Position14° Right8° Right
National Position16° Nat10° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %62%57%52%
British Identity26%27%29%
Good Health50%47%48%
UK Born90%89%88%
Good Education37%37%39%
Good Job62%53%51%
High SEC59%53%51%
Average Age49.749.448.5
ABC1 Class62%55%53%

Epping Forest ranks #118 for "Leave", #46 for "Right" and #33 for "National" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Epping Forest: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Epping Forest: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Epping Forest

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Epping Forest at the general election of 2017. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Epping Forest. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results. The final block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

Epping ForestActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Epping ForestBroadley Common, Epping Upland and Nazeing2015761062256770
Epping ForestBuckhurst Hill East201457411521006350
Epping ForestBuckhurst Hill West20152,45045560403630
Epping ForestChigwell Row201239964300600
Epping ForestChigwell Village201468212338187630
Epping ForestEpping Hemnall20151,3683021,1315321730
Epping ForestEpping Lindsey and Thornwood Common20152,18252455802720
Epping ForestGrange Hill20151,80267819458400
Epping ForestLoughton Alderton20141941472400643
Epping ForestLoughton Broadway201410215703570423
Epping ForestLoughton Fairmead20141539902620523
Epping ForestLoughton Forest2014488743800755
Epping ForestLoughton Roding20141645900501,207
Epping ForestLoughton St John's2014274932400904
Epping ForestLoughton St Mary's20143161032900915
Epping ForestTheydon Bois20148980378000
Epping ForestWaltham Abbey High Beach20158390000402
Epping ForestWaltham Abbey Honey Lane20152,0020569000
Epping ForestWaltham Abbey North East20151,4270533000
Epping ForestWaltham Abbey Paternoster2015-100000
Epping ForestWaltham Abbey South West201583701645742430

Epping ForestTurnout-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
Epping ForestBroadley Common, Epping Upland and Nazeing1,5667120582397201,081
Epping ForestBuckhurst Hill East3,57192318533801,02102,467
Epping ForestBuckhurst Hill West5,2282,284424563033803,609
Epping ForestChigwell Row1,69784513664012701,172
Epping ForestChigwell Village3,2071,3822497737912802,215
Epping ForestEpping Hemnall4,7961,2922851,06850216303,310
Epping ForestEpping Lindsey and Thornwood Common4,7942,043491522025503,311
Epping ForestGrange Hill5,1261,958737211634003,540
Epping ForestLoughton Alderton3,49746535257001,5402,414
Epping ForestLoughton Broadway3,241220338076909112,238
Epping ForestLoughton Fairmead3,403347224059401,1852,350
Epping ForestLoughton Forest3,37683912765001,2992,330
Epping ForestLoughton Roding3,64127910000852,0502,514
Epping ForestLoughton St John's3,33148716543001,6052,300
Epping ForestLoughton St Mary's3,58457418753001,6612,475
Epping ForestTheydon Bois3,1391,52506420002,167
Epping ForestWaltham Abbey High Beach1,71079800003821,180
Epping ForestWaltham Abbey Honey Lane4,8472,60607410003,347
Epping ForestWaltham Abbey North East3,1181,56705850002,152
Epping ForestWaltham Abbey Paternoster3,4092,354000002,354
Epping ForestWaltham Abbey South West3,2651,038020371230102,254
 Total73,54624,5384,0005,2903,8292,49010,63350,780

The turnout-adjusted results are now combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

Epping ForestEst. 2017 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
Epping ForestBroadley Common, Epping Upland and Nazeing1,59179914826832421,082
Epping ForestBuckhurst Hill East3,6291,3456461551730232,468
Epping ForestBuckhurst Hill West5,3132,487739253712223,610
Epping ForestChigwell Row1,72485623336103601,171
Epping ForestChigwell Village3,2591,647379401103812,215
Epping ForestEpping Hemnall4,8741,90271942715310453,310
Epping ForestEpping Lindsey and Thornwood Common4,8722,1298132233310673,311
Epping ForestGrange Hill5,2092,1701,0441211752903,539
Epping ForestLoughton Alderton3,5541,1801,02594545392,415
Epping ForestLoughton Broadway3,293900962782741852,237
Epping ForestLoughton Fairmead3,4581,06989910723727102,349
Epping ForestLoughton Forest3,4311,55466179521102,330
Epping ForestLoughton Roding3,7001,3031,003886049112,514
Epping ForestLoughton St John's3,3851,35281873934132,299
Epping ForestLoughton St Mary's3,6421,46487578291992,474
Epping ForestTheydon Bois3,1901,614240238383702,167
Epping ForestWaltham Abbey High Beach1,7389102083023541,180
Epping ForestWaltham Abbey Honey Lane4,9252,3395283111194463,347
Epping ForestWaltham Abbey North East3,1681,477336230871932,152
Epping ForestWaltham Abbey Paternoster3,4641,713421831013332,354
Epping ForestWaltham Abbey South West3,3181,25152211524611552,254
 Total73,54631,46113,2192,8851,8701,23510850,780

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Epping Forest

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Epping Forest.

Epping ForestPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
Epping ForestBroadley Common, Epping Upland and Nazeing1,591759152261093071,083
Epping ForestBuckhurst Hill East3,6291,25365615575315142,468
Epping ForestBuckhurst Hill West5,3132,35275325392141193,610
Epping ForestChigwell Row1,72481223836384251,171
Epping ForestChigwell Village3,2591,5643884016249112,214
Epping ForestEpping Hemnall4,8741,778732427231121203,309
Epping ForestEpping Lindsey and Thornwood Common4,8722,005826223111123223,310
Epping ForestGrange Hill5,2092,0381,05812125947163,539
Epping ForestLoughton Alderton3,5541,0901,0349411165202,414
Epping ForestLoughton Broadway3,2938169717832730152,237
Epping ForestLoughton Fairmead3,45898190810729339212,349
Epping ForestLoughton Forest3,4311,467670796033212,330
Epping ForestLoughton Roding3,7001,2091,0138811962232,514
Epping ForestLoughton St John's3,3851,266827736346242,299
Epping ForestLoughton St Mary's3,6421,371885788832202,474
Epping ForestTheydon Bois3,1901,5332482388948102,166
Epping ForestWaltham Abbey High Beach1,73886621330511191,180
Epping ForestWaltham Abbey Honey Lane4,9252,21454131119861223,347
Epping ForestWaltham Abbey North East3,1681,39734423013830132,152
Epping ForestWaltham Abbey Paternoster3,4641,6254308315745142,354
Epping ForestWaltham Abbey South West3,3181,167531115299127152,254
 Total73,54629,56313,4182,8853,0701,49734150,774

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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