Esher and Walton: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Esher and Walton: Overview

 Prediction: CON hold 

MP at 2017: Dominic Raab  (CON)
County/Area: Surrey (South East)
Electorate: 80,938
Turnout: 73.9%
2017
Votes
2017
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON35,07158.6%55.6%
LAB11,77319.7%18.6%
LIB10,37417.3%17.4%
Green1,0741.8%3.1%
UKIP1,0341.7%5.1%
OTH5160.9%0.2%
CON Majority23,29838.9%Pred Maj 37.0%
Chance of
winning
CON
93%
LAB
5%
LIB
2%
Green
0%
UKIP
0%
OTH
0%

Esher and Walton : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Esher and Walton constituency, the 'South East' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatSouth EastAll GB
Party WinnerCONCONCON
Economic Position8° Right4° Right
National Position3° Int3° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %41%52%52%
British Identity32%29%29%
Good Health56%49%48%
UK Born83%88%88%
Good Education54%43%39%
Good Job70%56%51%
High SEC72%57%51%
Average Age50.149.248.5
ABC1 Class74%60%53%

Esher and Walton ranks #533 for "Leave", #151 for "Right" and #447 for "National" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Esher and Walton: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Esher and Walton: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Esher and Walton

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Esher and Walton at the general election of 2017. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Esher and Walton. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results. The final block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

Esher and WaltonActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
ElmbridgeClaygate20151,83701,99032600
ElmbridgeCobham Fairmile201446678101197098
ElmbridgeCobham and Downside20152,23728452240100
ElmbridgeEsher20151,838016101801,363
ElmbridgeHersham North20151,5975402744172450
ElmbridgeHersham South20152,3053862593862550
ElmbridgeHinchley Wood201563200002,208
ElmbridgeLong Ditton20151,58601,63531300
ElmbridgeMolesey East20151,64427524415301,396
ElmbridgeMolesey North201561329213832901,925
ElmbridgeMolesey South201561839614838801,724
ElmbridgeOxshott and Stoke D'Abernon20152,58820832932100
ElmbridgeThames Ditton20157753021551701711,985
ElmbridgeWalton Ambleside20151,14242716329800
ElmbridgeWalton Central20151,5630029101,749
ElmbridgeWalton North20151,45255427973000
ElmbridgeWalton South20151,916032927601,054
ElmbridgeWeston Green20156430010701,478

Esher and WaltonTurnout-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
ElmbridgeClaygate5,2561,74101,886309003,936
ElmbridgeCobham Fairmile3,4941,29721728154802732,616
ElmbridgeCobham and Downside4,8092,340297546419003,602
ElmbridgeEsher4,9351,918016801881,4223,696
ElmbridgeHersham North4,4041,71458029444826303,299
ElmbridgeHersham South4,6752,24837625337624903,502
ElmbridgeHinchley Wood3,70561800002,1582,776
ElmbridgeLong Ditton4,6381,55901,607308003,474
ElmbridgeMolesey East4,6681,54925923014401,3153,497
ElmbridgeMolesey North4,37660929013732701,9143,277
ElmbridgeMolesey South4,94469944816743901,9503,703
ElmbridgeOxshott and Stoke D'Abernon4,8292,716218345337003,616
ElmbridgeThames Ditton4,6357562951511661671,9373,472
ElmbridgeWalton Ambleside3,0721,294484185338002,301
ElmbridgeWalton Central4,9771,6170030101,8103,728
ElmbridgeWalton North4,7721,721657331865003,574
ElmbridgeWalton South4,8671,954033528101,0753,645
ElmbridgeWeston Green2,8376130010201,4102,125
 Total79,89326,9634,1216,9165,70886715,26459,839

The turnout-adjusted results are now combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

Esher and WaltonEst. 2017 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
ElmbridgeClaygate5,3252,0174711,3533845133,937
ElmbridgeCobham Fairmile3,5401,6184374359613182,617
ElmbridgeCobham and Downside4,8722,4654725785316173,601
ElmbridgeEsher5,0002,53654144023119373,696
ElmbridgeHersham North4,4621,81170154061170153,298
ElmbridgeHersham South4,7362,30352342590143193,503
ElmbridgeHinchley Wood3,7531,528720442133512,775
ElmbridgeLong Ditton4,6991,7564651,1843226123,475
ElmbridgeMolesey East4,7292,03179751914100343,495
ElmbridgeMolesey North4,4331,6489005548440513,277
ElmbridgeMolesey South5,0091,6671,20756516645543,704
ElmbridgeOxshott and Stoke D'Abernon4,8922,689408466368103,617
ElmbridgeThames Ditton4,6961,76990358516155433,471
ElmbridgeWalton Ambleside3,1121,3245723086421112,300
ElmbridgeWalton Central5,0422,3607264995835493,727
ElmbridgeWalton North4,8341,91791951315751163,573
ElmbridgeWalton South4,9312,3615776113333313,646
ElmbridgeWeston Green2,8741,2704343561023332,126
 Total79,89335,07011,77310,3731,0321,07651459,839

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Esher and Walton

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Esher and Walton.

Esher and WaltonPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
ElmbridgeClaygate5,3251,8984421,3551508833,936
ElmbridgeCobham Fairmile3,5401,5394104371814652,618
ElmbridgeCobham and Downside4,8722,3564435801605743,600
ElmbridgeEsher5,0002,42550844214616693,696
ElmbridgeHersham North4,4621,71266154216821243,299
ElmbridgeHersham South4,7362,19749142719818553,503
ElmbridgeHinchley Wood3,7531,44468644411276132,775
ElmbridgeLong Ditton4,6991,6514371,1861336533,475
ElmbridgeMolesey East4,7291,92675452113714893,495
ElmbridgeMolesey North4,4331,54986055621089133,277
ElmbridgeMolesey South5,0091,5551,16256830699143,704
ElmbridgeOxshott and Stoke D'Abernon4,8922,5803834681374733,618
ElmbridgeThames Ditton4,6961,664861587144204113,471
ElmbridgeWalton Ambleside3,1121,2555443091395032,300
ElmbridgeWalton Central5,0422,24868250119688123,727
ElmbridgeWalton North4,8341,8098755152739643,572
ElmbridgeWalton South4,9312,2515426131537983,646
ElmbridgeWeston Green2,8741,206408357925582,126
 Total79,89333,26511,14910,4083,0351,85013159,838

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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