Fareham: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Fareham: Overview

 Prediction: CON hold 

MP at 2017: Suella Fernandes  (CON)
County/Area: Hampshire (South East)
Electorate: 79,495
Turnout: 71.7%
2017
Votes
2017
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON35,91563.0%59.3%
LAB14,36025.2%25.6%
LIB3,8966.8%6.8%
UKIP1,5412.7%5.1%
Green1,3022.3%2.8%
OTH00.0%0.5%
CON Majority21,55537.8%Pred Maj 33.7%
Chance of
winning
CON
94%
LAB
6%
LIB
0%
UKIP
0%
Green
0%
OTH
0%

Fareham : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Fareham constituency, the 'South East' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatSouth EastAll GB
Party WinnerCONCONCON
Economic Position7° Right4° Right
National Position5° Nat3° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %54%52%52%
British Identity30%29%29%
Good Health49%49%48%
UK Born94%88%88%
Good Education43%43%39%
Good Job58%56%51%
High SEC62%57%51%
Average Age50.949.248.5
ABC1 Class64%60%53%

Fareham ranks #310 for "Leave", #178 for "Right" and #252 for "National" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Fareham: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Fareham: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Fareham

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Fareham at the general election of 2017. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Fareham. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results. The final block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

FarehamActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
FarehamFareham East20148353301,075000
FarehamFareham North2014973167379403143253
FarehamFareham North-West20147491974264230102
FarehamFareham South20147003371205190148
FarehamFareham West20141,4051781684670216
FarehamLocks Heath20141,620271261000
FarehamPark Gate20141,196391237000
FarehamPortchester East20141,3468594,096000
FarehamPortchester West201483920979754800
FarehamSarisbury20141,579217287000
FarehamTitchfield20141,31326620500404
FarehamTitchfield Common20145901221163510989
FarehamWarsash20141,428157893241700

FarehamTurnout-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
FarehamFareham East5,9191,6296442,0970004,370
FarehamFareham North5,7711,7883076977412634654,261
FarehamFareham North-West5,8391,70244896896102324,311
FarehamFareham South5,7301,6237822781,20403434,230
FarehamFareham West5,0622,15727325871703323,737
FarehamLocks Heath5,6383,1335245050004,162
FarehamPark Gate6,2183,0109845960004,590
FarehamPortchester East8,6281,3618684,1400006,369
FarehamPortchester West5,4751,4173531,346926004,042
FarehamSarisbury5,8573,2784505960004,324
FarehamTitchfield5,8012,570521401007914,283
FarehamTitchfield Common5,6131,12823322267101,8904,144
FarehamWarsash5,6822,76330417262732904,195
 Total77,23327,5596,69112,2765,8475924,05357,018

The turnout-adjusted results are now combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

FarehamEst. 2017 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
FarehamFareham East6,0922,4931,259514228204,370
FarehamFareham North5,9402,57698434612822604,260
FarehamFareham North-West6,0102,3801,3113222277104,311
FarehamFareham South5,8982,1161,5302222719004,229
FarehamFareham West5,2102,6406632251614803,737
FarehamLocks Heath5,8033,153803149193704,161
FarehamPark Gate6,4002,9701,2521966410704,589
FarehamPortchester East8,8813,2031,94296015211306,370
FarehamPortchester West5,6352,3831,0713731565904,042
FarehamSarisbury6,0293,37473915584804,324
FarehamTitchfield5,9713,051921220197204,283
FarehamTitchfield Common5,7772,5091,22514615411004,144
FarehamWarsash5,8483,0696596716024004,195
 Total77,23335,91714,3593,8951,5411,303057,018

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Fareham

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Fareham.

FarehamPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
FarehamFareham East6,0922,3301,276514125104204,369
FarehamFareham North5,9402,4171,001346229248204,261
FarehamFareham North-West6,0102,2191,32832232993204,311
FarehamFareham South5,8981,9581,546222371112204,229
FarehamFareham West5,2102,50167722524967173,736
FarehamLocks Heath5,8032,99881914911758194,160
FarehamPark Gate6,4002,7991,270196172131214,589
FarehamPortchester East8,8812,9651,967960302146296,369
FarehamPortchester West5,6352,2321,08737325180194,042
FarehamSarisbury6,0293,21375615511070204,324
FarehamTitchfield5,9712,89193822012094204,283
FarehamTitchfield Common5,7772,3541,241146252131194,143
FarehamWarsash5,8482,91267567259262194,194
 Total77,23333,78914,5813,8952,8861,59626357,010

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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