Faversham and Kent Mid: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Faversham and Kent Mid: Overview

 Prediction: CON hold 

MP at 2017: Helen Whately  (CON)
County/Area: Kent (South East)
Electorate: 76,008
Turnout: 65.5%
2017
Votes
2017
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON30,39061.1%57.4%
LAB12,97726.1%26.5%
LIB3,2496.5%6.5%
UKIP1,7023.4%5.8%
Green1,4312.9%3.4%
OTH00.0%0.5%
CON Majority17,41335.0%Pred Maj 30.9%
Chance of
winning
CON
93%
LAB
7%
LIB
0%
UKIP
0%
Green
0%
OTH
0%

Faversham and Kent Mid : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Faversham and Kent Mid constituency, the 'South East' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatSouth EastAll GB
Party WinnerCONCONCON
Economic Position7° Right4° Right
National Position9° Nat3° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %59%52%52%
British Identity26%29%29%
Good Health48%49%48%
UK Born94%88%88%
Good Education37%43%39%
Good Job54%56%51%
High SEC54%57%51%
Average Age50.549.248.5
ABC1 Class56%60%53%

Faversham and Kent Mid ranks #189 for "Leave", #179 for "Right" and #160 for "National" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Faversham and Kent Mid: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Faversham and Kent Mid: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Faversham and Kent Mid

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Faversham and Kent Mid at the general election of 2017. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Faversham and Kent Mid. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results. The final block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

Faversham and Kent MidActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
MaidstoneBearsted20153,9536663496512180
MaidstoneBoughton Monchelsea and Chart Sutton201219239000707
MaidstoneBoxley20152,61157445796200
MaidstoneDetling and Thurnham20151,05218022630400
MaidstoneDownswood and Otham2015536109017050569
MaidstoneHarrietsham and Lenham20151,05320011360101,308
MaidstoneHeadcorn2012-1000-10
MaidstoneLeeds201581313012131500
MaidstoneNorth Downs2012442840066115
MaidstonePark Wood20157374601776220241
MaidstoneShepway North20151,61464929794118638
MaidstoneShepway South2012265418000260
MaidstoneSutton Valence and Langley20151,01718315801280
SwaleAbbey20151,6381,1720365720753
SwaleBoughton and Courtenay20152,9699210676479579
SwaleEast Downs20151,027294002740
SwalePriory20153561960061610
SwaleSt Ann's20151,9751,2770451550623
SwaleWatling20152,5671,51301,1194860

Faversham and Kent MidTurnout-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
MaidstoneBearsted6,2053,00750726549516604,440
MaidstoneBoughton Monchelsea and Chart Sutton1,983290590001,0701,419
MaidstoneBoxley6,3922,594570454956004,574
MaidstoneDetling and Thurnham2,302983168211284001,646
MaidstoneDownswood and Otham2,1255681160180536031,520
MaidstoneHarrietsham and Lenham4,10194417910153901,1722,935
MaidstoneHeadcorn3,7971,3590001,35902,718
MaidstoneLeeds1,853782125116303001,326
MaidstoneNorth Downs1,875839159001252181,341
MaidstonePark Wood4,6651,10068626492803603,338
MaidstoneShepway North6,8032,1098483881,230243504,868
MaidstoneShepway South4,4508951,4110008783,184
MaidstoneSutton Valence and Langley2,1451,050189163013201,534
SwaleAbbey4,0381,01872902274484682,890
SwaleBoughton and Courtenay4,2481,60549803652593133,040
SwaleEast Downs2,0949652760025701,498
SwalePriory1,95440722400706971,398
SwaleSt Ann's4,0801,18376502703293732,920
SwaleWatling4,4131,426840062227003,158
 Total69,52323,1248,3491,9626,3993,7116,20249,747

The turnout-adjusted results are now combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

Faversham and Kent MidEst. 2017 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
MaidstoneBearsted6,7843,233766286886604,439
MaidstoneBoughton Monchelsea and Chart Sutton2,16898631971212201,419
MaidstoneBoxley6,9883,1488633321993204,574
MaidstoneDetling and Thurnham2,5171,12129717544901,646
MaidstoneDownswood and Otham2,323975350123383501,521
MaidstoneHarrietsham and Lenham4,4841,9296481901323602,935
MaidstoneHeadcorn4,1511,900412861630502,719
MaidstoneLeeds2,02692123097542501,327
MaidstoneNorth Downs2,0501,01923237143901,341
MaidstonePark Wood5,1001,6271,1542762522903,338
MaidstoneShepway North7,4382,5221,4914453278404,869
MaidstoneShepway South4,8651,3771,4722091002503,183
MaidstoneSutton Valence and Langley2,3451,092254109265201,533
SwaleAbbey4,4151,4761,0661215716902,889
SwaleBoughton and Courtenay4,6442,0906561286610003,040
SwaleEast Downs2,2891,04229556188701,498
SwalePriory2,13675547199423001,397
SwaleSt Ann's4,4611,4759282699715102,920
SwaleWatling4,8251,7001,07114111213403,158
 Total69,52330,38812,9753,2501,7031,430049,747

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Faversham and Kent Mid

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Faversham and Kent Mid.

Faversham and Kent MidPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
MaidstoneBearsted6,7843,06778328619389214,439
MaidstoneBoughton Monchelsea and Chart Sutton2,16893332571542971,419
MaidstoneBoxley6,9882,97788133230756214,574
MaidstoneDetling and Thurnham2,5171,060303175831781,646
MaidstoneDownswood and Otham2,323918356123744371,521
MaidstoneHarrietsham and Lenham4,4841,82065919020151142,935
MaidstoneHeadcorn4,1511,7994238680319132,720
MaidstoneLeeds2,02687223597853261,327
MaidstoneNorth Downs2,05096923737464661,341
MaidstonePark Wood5,1001,5031,16727633146153,338
MaidstoneShepway North7,4382,3401,510445442109234,869
MaidstoneShepway South4,8651,2581,48420917541153,182
MaidstoneSutton Valence and Langley2,3451,035260109626071,533
SwaleAbbey4,4151,3681,077121125184132,888
SwaleBoughton and Courtenay4,6441,977668128138116143,041
SwaleEast Downs2,28998630156539571,498
SwalePriory2,13670347699753761,396
SwaleSt Ann's4,4611,366939269166166132,919
SwaleWatling4,8251,5821,083141186150153,157
 Total69,52328,53313,1673,2502,8761,68623149,743

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
Powered by TigerLib (11-Sep-2017 15:41)