Fermanagh and South Tyrone: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Fermanagh and South Tyrone: Overview

 Prediction: SF hold 

MP at 2017: Michelle Gildernew  (SF)
County/Area: Fermanagh (Northern Ireland)
Electorate: 70,601
Turnout: 75.8%
2017
Votes
2017
Share
SF25,23047.2%
UUP24,35545.5%
SDLP2,5874.8%
MIN8861.7%
Green4230.8%
NAT Majority8751.6%

EU Referendum vote:

Remain 59%
41% Leave

Fermanagh and South Tyrone ranks #534 for "Leave" out of 650 seats.

Fermanagh and South Tyrone: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Fermanagh and South Tyrone: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Fermanagh and South Tyrone

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Fermanagh and South Tyrone at the general election of 2017. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Fermanagh and South Tyrone. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results. The final block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

Fermanagh and South TyroneActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
UUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
Other
Votes
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonLoughgall20143541595961410304269
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonThe Birches20143681656201470316280
Fermanagh and OmaghBallinamallard20145182251830033498
Fermanagh and OmaghBelcoo and Garrison20143031808000510224
Fermanagh and OmaghBelleek and Boa20144581991620029687
Fermanagh and OmaghBoho, Cleenish and Letterbreen20143662189600616270
Fermanagh and OmaghBrookeborough20141901511864406000
Fermanagh and OmaghCastlecoole2014299118235013268303
Fermanagh and OmaghDerrygonnelly20143402028900571251
Fermanagh and OmaghDerrylin20143101848100522229
Fermanagh and OmaghDonagh20141871501844405930
Fermanagh and OmaghEderney and Kesh20144441931570028784
Fermanagh and OmaghErne2014280110220012251284
Fermanagh and OmaghFlorence Court and Kinawley20142991787900504221
Fermanagh and OmaghIrvinestown201455624219700359105
Fermanagh and OmaghLisbellaw2014275108216012246279
Fermanagh and OmaghLisnarrick2014278109219012250282
Fermanagh and OmaghLisnaskea20142491992445807890
Fermanagh and OmaghMaguiresbridge20142652112606208380
Fermanagh and OmaghNewtownbutler20142061642024806510
Fermanagh and OmaghPortora2014280110220012251284
Fermanagh and OmaghRosslea20141751391714105520
Fermanagh and OmaghRossorry20142188617109195221
Fermanagh and OmaghTempo20144221831490027280
Mid UlsterAugher and Clogher2014346186392004560
Mid UlsterAughnacloy2014366197414004820
Mid UlsterBallygawley2014366197414004820
Mid UlsterBallysaggart201429513330300295430
Mid UlsterCaledon2014376202426004950
Mid UlsterCastlecaulfield2014355191402004680
Mid UlsterFivemiletown2014330178374004350
Mid UlsterKillyman20142179822200217316
Mid UlsterKillymeal201427112227700270394
Mid UlsterMoy201423810724400238346
Mid UlsterMoygashel201422910323500229334
Mid UlsterMullaghmore201425311425900253368

Fermanagh and South TyroneTurnout-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
UUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonLoughgall50975341273006557388
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonThe Birches3745525932204842285
Fermanagh and OmaghBallinamallard2,129620269219003991171,624
Fermanagh and OmaghBelcoo and Garrison1,69330217980005082231,292
Fermanagh and OmaghBelleek and Boa1,883547238194003541041,437
Fermanagh and OmaghBoho, Cleenish and Letterbreen2,04536521796006142691,561
Fermanagh and OmaghBrookeborough1,46618114417842057301,118
Fermanagh and OmaghCastlecoole2,3234291693370193844341,772
Fermanagh and OmaghDerrygonnelly1,89733920189005692501,448
Fermanagh and OmaghDerrylin1,73230918381005202281,321
Fermanagh and OmaghDonagh1,44817814317642056601,105
Fermanagh and OmaghEderney and Kesh1,826531231188003431001,393
Fermanagh and OmaghErne2,1754021583160173604071,660
Fermanagh and OmaghFlorence Court and Kinawley1,67229817779005022201,276
Fermanagh and OmaghIrvinestown2,285664289235004291251,742
Fermanagh and OmaghLisbellaw2,1353941553100173534001,629
Fermanagh and OmaghLisnarrick2,1623991563140173594041,649
Fermanagh and OmaghLisnaskea1,92723819023355075401,470
Fermanagh and OmaghMaguiresbridge2,04825320224859080001,562
Fermanagh and OmaghNewtownbutler1,59119715719346062201,215
Fermanagh and OmaghPortora2,1764021583160173604071,660
Fermanagh and OmaghRosslea1,34916713316339052701,029
Fermanagh and OmaghRossorry1,6933131232450132803171,291
Fermanagh and OmaghTempo1,73450521917800325961,323
Mid UlsterAugher and Clogher2,2244252294820056101,697
Mid UlsterAughnacloy2,3514502425090059301,794
Mid UlsterBallygawley1,9513732014220049201,488
Mid UlsterBallysaggart3,106480216493004807002,369
Mid UlsterCaledon2,4174632485240060901,844
Mid UlsterCastlecaulfield1,5953051643450040201,216
Mid UlsterFivemiletown2,1214052194590053401,617
Mid UlsterKillyman1,872290131296002904221,429
Mid UlsterKillymeal2,617406183415004045901,998
Mid UlsterMoy2,504388174397003885631,910
Mid UlsterMoygashel2,412373168383003735441,841
Mid UlsterMullaghmore2,662412186422004125992,031
 Total70,10412,9336,5119,83533510016,1527,61853,484

The turnout-adjusted results are now combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

Fermanagh and South TyroneEst. 2017 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
UUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonLoughgall513200140041647389
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonThe Birches377147100031215286
Fermanagh and OmaghBallinamallard2,144886107008610141,625
Fermanagh and OmaghBelcoo and Garrison1,70551371006676261,292
Fermanagh and OmaghBelleek and Boa1,89678395007541121,438
Fermanagh and OmaghBoho, Cleenish and Letterbreen2,05962086007817311,561
Fermanagh and OmaghBrookeborough1,4763495700570701,118
Fermanagh and OmaghCastlecoole2,339880670032743501,772
Fermanagh and OmaghDerrygonnelly1,91057580007757291,448
Fermanagh and OmaghDerrylin1,74452473006691271,321
Fermanagh and OmaghDonagh1,4583455700569901,106
Fermanagh and OmaghEderney and Kesh1,83975992006524121,393
Fermanagh and OmaghErne2,190825630029696471,660
Fermanagh and OmaghFlorence Court and Kinawley1,68450670006668261,276
Fermanagh and OmaghIrvinestown2,301949115008656151,743
Fermanagh and OmaghLisbellaw2,150809620029683471,630
Fermanagh and OmaghLisnarrick2,177819620029693471,650
Fermanagh and OmaghLisnaskea1,9414597500692901,469
Fermanagh and OmaghMaguiresbridge2,0634888000798701,562
Fermanagh and OmaghNewtownbutler1,6023806200576701,214
Fermanagh and OmaghPortora2,191825630029696471,660
Fermanagh and OmaghRosslea1,3593225300465001,029
Fermanagh and OmaghRossorry1,705642490022541371,291
Fermanagh and OmaghTempo1,74672287006497111,323
Mid UlsterAugher and Clogher2,24076591001083101,697
Mid UlsterAughnacloy2,36880996001087801,793
Mid UlsterBallygawley1,9656718000872901,488
Mid UlsterBallysaggart3,1281,1618600191,021812,368
Mid UlsterCaledon2,43483299001090301,844
Mid UlsterCastlecaulfield1,6065486500759501,215
Mid UlsterFivemiletown2,1367298700979201,617
Mid UlsterKillyman1,885700520012616491,429
Mid UlsterKillymeal2,636980730016860691,998
Mid UlsterMoy2,522936690016824651,910
Mid UlsterMoygashel2,429902670015794631,841
Mid UlsterMullaghmore2,681995740016876702,031
 Total70,10424,3552,5890042425,23288753,484

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Fermanagh and South Tyrone

This table shows the estimated 2017 general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Fermanagh and South Tyrone.

Fermanagh and South TyroneEst. 2017 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
UUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonLoughgall513200140041647389
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonThe Birches377147100031215286
Fermanagh and OmaghBallinamallard2,144886107008610141,625
Fermanagh and OmaghBelcoo and Garrison1,70551371006676261,292
Fermanagh and OmaghBelleek and Boa1,89678395007541121,438
Fermanagh and OmaghBoho, Cleenish and Letterbreen2,05962086007817311,561
Fermanagh and OmaghBrookeborough1,4763495700570701,118
Fermanagh and OmaghCastlecoole2,339880670032743501,772
Fermanagh and OmaghDerrygonnelly1,91057580007757291,448
Fermanagh and OmaghDerrylin1,74452473006691271,321
Fermanagh and OmaghDonagh1,4583455700569901,106
Fermanagh and OmaghEderney and Kesh1,83975992006524121,393
Fermanagh and OmaghErne2,190825630029696471,660
Fermanagh and OmaghFlorence Court and Kinawley1,68450670006668261,276
Fermanagh and OmaghIrvinestown2,301949115008656151,743
Fermanagh and OmaghLisbellaw2,150809620029683471,630
Fermanagh and OmaghLisnarrick2,177819620029693471,650
Fermanagh and OmaghLisnaskea1,9414597500692901,469
Fermanagh and OmaghMaguiresbridge2,0634888000798701,562
Fermanagh and OmaghNewtownbutler1,6023806200576701,214
Fermanagh and OmaghPortora2,191825630029696471,660
Fermanagh and OmaghRosslea1,3593225300465001,029
Fermanagh and OmaghRossorry1,705642490022541371,291
Fermanagh and OmaghTempo1,74672287006497111,323
Mid UlsterAugher and Clogher2,24076591001083101,697
Mid UlsterAughnacloy2,36880996001087801,793
Mid UlsterBallygawley1,9656718000872901,488
Mid UlsterBallysaggart3,1281,1618600191,021812,368
Mid UlsterCaledon2,43483299001090301,844
Mid UlsterCastlecaulfield1,6065486500759501,215
Mid UlsterFivemiletown2,1367298700979201,617
Mid UlsterKillyman1,885700520012616491,429
Mid UlsterKillymeal2,636980730016860691,998
Mid UlsterMoy2,522936690016824651,910
Mid UlsterMoygashel2,429902670015794631,841
Mid UlsterMullaghmore2,681995740016876702,031
 Total70,10424,3552,5890042425,23288753,487

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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