Folkestone and Hythe: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Folkestone and Hythe: Overview

 Prediction: CON hold 

MP at 2017: Damian Collins  (CON)
County/Area: Kent (South East)
Electorate: 84,090
Turnout: 70.0%
2017
Votes
2017
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON32,19754.7%51.0%
LAB16,78628.5%28.9%
LIB4,2227.2%7.2%
UKIP2,5654.4%6.7%
Green2,4984.2%4.8%
OTH6071.0%1.5%
CON Majority15,41126.2%Pred Maj 22.1%
Chance of
winning
CON
84%
LAB
16%
LIB
0%
UKIP
0%
Green
0%
OTH
0%

Folkestone and Hythe : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Folkestone and Hythe constituency, the 'South East' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatSouth EastAll GB
Party WinnerCONCONCON
Economic Position5° Right4° Right
National Position11° Nat3° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %62%52%52%
British Identity26%29%29%
Good Health42%49%48%
UK Born91%88%88%
Good Education34%43%39%
Good Job48%56%51%
High SEC50%57%51%
Average Age51.649.248.5
ABC1 Class51%60%53%

Folkestone and Hythe ranks #124 for "Leave", #229 for "Right" and #106 for "National" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Folkestone and Hythe: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Folkestone and Hythe: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Folkestone and Hythe

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Folkestone and Hythe at the general election of 2017. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Folkestone and Hythe. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results. The final block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

Folkestone and HytheActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
AshfordSaxon Shore20153,832932000645
ShepwayBroadmead201585824542436500
ShepwayCheriton20154,9092,8241,1932,685681374
ShepwayEast Folkestone20152,6262,8583763,29501,886
ShepwayFolkestone Central20153,4541,5551,4662,588781283
ShepwayFolkestone Harbour20151,4161,0573041,4310154
ShepwayHythe20158,7800006,040994
ShepwayHythe Rural20153,1370009651,133
ShepwayNew Romney20152,3044513492,143270668
ShepwayNorth Downs East20157,3411,4507332,9761,3600
ShepwayNorth Downs West20154,420085409090
ShepwayRomney Marsh20152,5779362162,6360518
ShepwaySandgate and West Folkestone20152,3676337911,0994630
ShepwayWalland and Denge Marsh20153,0978644951,4203480

Folkestone and HytheTurnout-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
AshfordSaxon Shore3,7061,8494500003112,610
ShepwayBroadmead2,753879251434374001,938
ShepwayCheriton9,3452,5501,4676201,3953541946,580
ShepwayEast Folkestone8,7121,4591,5882091,83101,0486,135
ShepwayFolkestone Central7,7481,8618387901,3944211525,456
ShepwayFolkestone Harbour5,2661,2048992581,21601313,708
ShepwayHythe8,1353,1800002,1883605,728
ShepwayHythe Rural4,3821,8490005696683,086
ShepwayNew Romney5,1751,3572662061,2631593943,645
ShepwayNorth Downs East8,3623,1196163111,26457805,888
ShepwayNorth Downs West4,5842,3070446047503,228
ShepwayRomney Marsh5,3241,4045101181,43602823,750
ShepwaySandgate and West Folkestone4,1751,30034843460425402,940
ShepwayWalland and Denge Marsh5,9462,08358133395523404,186
 Total83,61326,4017,8144,15911,7325,2323,54058,878

The turnout-adjusted results are now combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

Folkestone and HytheEst. 2017 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
AshfordSaxon Shore3,7271,8545181131665442,610
ShepwayBroadmead2,7691,0394852737156141,938
ShepwayCheriton9,3983,1052,392569290183416,580
ShepwayEast Folkestone8,7622,4972,7252883661281306,134
ShepwayFolkestone Central7,7922,5541,743587244278505,456
ShepwayFolkestone Harbour5,2961,5751,48726126485353,707
ShepwayHythe8,1813,5941,02931341697545,728
ShepwayHythe Rural4,4071,99064510076195793,085
ShepwayNew Romney5,2052,06991726327577453,646
ShepwayNorth Downs East8,4103,6021,486320195250365,889
ShepwayNorth Downs West4,6102,27337134119204193,227
ShepwayRomney Marsh5,3541,9571,15723132642363,749
ShepwaySandgate and West Folkestone4,1991,63080227095133102,940
ShepwayWalland and Denge Marsh5,9802,4571,028295287105144,186
 Total83,61332,19616,7854,2242,5652,49860758,878

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Folkestone and Hythe

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Folkestone and Hythe.

Folkestone and HythePredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
AshfordSaxon Shore3,7271,7575281137878562,610
ShepwayBroadmead2,76996749227311766231,938
ShepwayCheriton9,3982,8602,417569445217726,580
ShepwayEast Folkestone8,7622,2682,7492885111601586,134
ShepwayFolkestone Central7,7922,3501,764587373306755,455
ShepwayFolkestone Harbour5,2961,4371,501261351104523,706
ShepwayHythe8,1813,3801,051313176726815,727
ShepwayHythe Rural4,4071,875657100149211933,085
ShepwayNew Romney5,2051,93393126336196623,646
ShepwayNorth Downs East8,4103,3821,509320334280635,888
ShepwayNorth Downs West4,6102,15338334195221343,227
ShepwayRomney Marsh5,3541,8171,17123141461533,747
ShepwaySandgate and West Folkestone4,1991,520813270164148242,939
ShepwayWalland and Denge Marsh5,9802,3011,044295386127334,186
 Total83,61330,00017,0104,2243,9542,80187958,868

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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