Forest of Dean: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Forest of Dean: Overview

 Prediction: CON hold 

MP at 2017: Mark Harper  (CON)
County/Area: Gloucestershire (South West)
Electorate: 70,898
Turnout: 73.0%
2017
Votes
2017
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON28,09654.3%50.5%
LAB18,59435.9%36.3%
LIB2,0293.9%3.9%
Green1,2412.4%2.9%
UKIP1,2372.4%4.8%
OTH5701.1%1.6%
CON Majority9,50218.4%Pred Maj 14.2%
Chance of
winning
CON
76%
LAB
23%
LIB
0%
Green
0%
UKIP
0%
OTH
0%

Forest of Dean : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Forest of Dean constituency, the 'South West' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatSouth WestAll GB
Party WinnerCONCONCON
Economic Position1° Left1° Right
National Position6° Nat1° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %58%53%52%
British Identity26%27%29%
Good Health45%47%48%
UK Born96%92%88%
Good Education37%40%39%
Good Job47%50%51%
High SEC49%52%51%
Average Age52.050.548.5
ABC1 Class49%54%53%

Forest of Dean ranks #204 for "Leave", #371 for "Right" and #239 for "National" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Forest of Dean: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Forest of Dean: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Forest of Dean

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Forest of Dean at the general election of 2017. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Forest of Dean. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results. The final block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

Forest of DeanActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Forest of DeanAlvington, Aylburton and West Lydney20151,4015990659405119
Forest of DeanAwre2015353002573410
Forest of DeanBerry Hill2015319459001220
Forest of DeanBlaisdon and Longhope2015260142013760551
Forest of DeanBream20158061,11009332150
Forest of DeanBromesberrow and Dymock2015686003091900
Forest of DeanChristchurch and English Bicknor201541325301507587
Forest of DeanChurcham and Huntley2015413115023269272
Forest of DeanCinderford East20156611,43803361890
Forest of DeanCinderford West20151,4802,60701,2254020
Forest of DeanColeford Central20159078522720212487
Forest of DeanColeford East20151,6322,4990914436554
Forest of DeanHartpury201537800099601
Forest of DeanHewelsfield and Woolaston201560516601671920
Forest of DeanLittledean and Ruspidge20151,2491,04408688600
Forest of DeanLydbrook and Ruardean20151,8392,21201,521621927
Forest of DeanLydney East20152,1481,60501,614484276
Forest of DeanLydney North201534826104141070
Forest of DeanMitcheldean and Drybrook20151,6371,9297091,132271517
Forest of DeanNewent Central20151,3394182610302986
Forest of DeanNewland and St Briavels20151,338487006331,020
Forest of DeanNewnham and Westbury20151,055002934441,121
Forest of DeanOxenhall and Newent North East20153981190078443
Forest of DeanPillowell20151,2591,10701,1884420
Forest of DeanRedmarley201573012701841240
Forest of DeanTibberton20157481387301690
Forest of DeanTidenham20152,851823776680634674
TewkesburyHighnam with Haw Bridge20153,5677410000

Forest of DeanTurnout-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
Forest of DeanAlvington, Aylburton and West Lydney2,5048163490384236691,854
Forest of DeanAwre1,4043860028137301,040
Forest of DeanBerry Hill1,3913655260014001,031
Forest of DeanBlaisdon and Longhope1,4202381300125555041,052
Forest of DeanBream2,554498685057613301,892
Forest of DeanBromesberrow and Dymock1,5646710030218601,159
Forest of DeanChristchurch and English Bicknor1,19837523001366879888
Forest of DeanChurcham and Huntley1,4434011120225672641,069
Forest of DeanCinderford East2,8855381,171027415402,137
Forest of DeanCinderford West4,0117701,356063720902,972
Forest of DeanColeford Central2,48261157418301433281,839
Forest of DeanColeford East4,3008611,31904822302923,184
Forest of DeanHartpury1,9875160001358211,472
Forest of DeanHewelsfield and Woolaston1,356538148014817101,005
Forest of DeanLittledean and Ruspidge3,057703588048948402,264
Forest of DeanLydbrook and Ruardean3,91174890006192533772,897
Forest of DeanLydney East4,0781,05979107962391363,021
Forest of DeanLydney North1,507344258040910601,117
Forest of DeanMitcheldean and Drybrook3,7497348653185071212322,777
Forest of DeanNewent Central3,06592028717902076772,270
Forest of DeanNewland and St Briavels2,652756275003585761,965
Forest of DeanNewnham and Westbury2,498670001862827121,850
Forest of DeanOxenhall and Newent North East1,2733621080071402943
Forest of DeanPillowell2,855666586062923402,115
Forest of DeanRedmarley1,531711124017912101,135
Forest of DeanTibberton1,3476621226501500999
Forest of DeanTidenham4,4701,4664233993503263473,311
TewkesburyHighnam with Haw Bridge3,3872,07843200002,510
 Total69,87919,46312,3591,1447,7345,2525,81651,768

The turnout-adjusted results are now combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

Forest of DeanEst. 2017 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
Forest of DeanAlvington, Aylburton and West Lydney2,5411,022673526632101,855
Forest of DeanAwre1,42466025720267331,039
Forest of DeanBerry Hill1,4114494974952751,032
Forest of DeanBlaisdon and Longhope1,441616332291630291,052
Forest of DeanBream2,591832892427537151,893
Forest of DeanBromesberrow and Dymock1,58786620516263961,158
Forest of DeanChristchurch and English Bicknor1,2155412951713148888
Forest of DeanChurcham and Huntley1,464669282591921191,069
Forest of DeanCinderford East2,9278471,078697947172,137
Forest of DeanCinderford West4,0691,1351,47415213559172,972
Forest of DeanColeford Central2,5188188251311031241,839
Forest of DeanColeford East4,3631,4161,5244810460333,185
Forest of DeanHartpury2,0161,03133332224501,472
Forest of DeanHewelsfield and Woolaston1,37666126829133131,005
Forest of DeanLittledean and Ruspidge3,1021,1308784299103112,263
Forest of DeanLydbrook and Ruardean3,9681,3151,2719310084352,898
Forest of DeanLydney East4,1371,4411,2749813749213,020
Forest of DeanLydney North1,52961438541551741,116
Forest of DeanMitcheldean and Drybrook3,8041,1891,2292107353242,778
Forest of DeanNewent Central3,1101,2836771832752482,270
Forest of DeanNewland and St Briavels2,6911,12265172674411,966
Forest of DeanNewnham and Westbury2,5341,196461461979481,849
Forest of DeanOxenhall and Newent North East1,2926512094211425942
Forest of DeanPillowell2,8971,098825478248172,117
Forest of DeanRedmarley1,55380825319163271,135
Forest of DeanTibberton1,367706180811246998
Forest of DeanTidenham4,5352,0678352823363313,311
TewkesburyHighnam with Haw Bridge3,4361,91253128222142,509
 Total69,87928,09518,5942,0291,2401,23957151,768

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Forest of Dean

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Forest of Dean.

Forest of DeanPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
Forest of DeanAlvington, Aylburton and West Lydney2,5419526805211042191,855
Forest of DeanAwre1,42462126120517881,039
Forest of DeanBerry Hill1,411410501492932101,031
Forest of DeanBlaisdon and Longhope1,441577336294135341,052
Forest of DeanBream2,5917618994212047241,893
Forest of DeanBromesberrow and Dymock1,587823210165345111,158
Forest of DeanChristchurch and English Bicknor1,21550829817341912888
Forest of DeanChurcham and Huntley1,464629286594427241,069
Forest of DeanCinderford East2,9277671,0866913058272,137
Forest of DeanCinderford West4,0691,0231,48615220674312,972
Forest of DeanColeford Central2,5187498321315441331,840
Forest of DeanColeford East4,3631,2961,5364818076483,184
Forest of DeanHartpury2,016976339323732571,473
Forest of DeanHewelsfield and Woolaston1,37662327229373681,005
Forest of DeanLittledean and Ruspidge3,1021,04588742153115222,264
Forest of DeanLydbrook and Ruardean3,9681,2061,2829316999482,897
Forest of DeanLydney East4,1371,3281,2869820965353,021
Forest of DeanLydney North1,52957238941812391,115
Forest of DeanMitcheldean and Drybrook3,8041,0851,24021013967372,778
Forest of DeanNewent Central3,1101,1986861838164592,271
Forest of DeanNewland and St Briavels2,6911,048659725384501,966
Forest of DeanNewnham and Westbury2,5341,127468466389571,850
Forest of DeanOxenhall and Newent North East1,29261621342231929942
Forest of DeanPillowell2,8971,0198334713259272,117
Forest of DeanRedmarley1,553765257194338121,134
Forest of DeanTibberton1,36766918481252911999
Forest of DeanTidenham4,5351,94384828211280463,311
TewkesburyHighnam with Haw Bridge3,4361,818541286235262,510
 Total69,87926,15418,7952,0292,4711,50881451,771

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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