Foyle: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Foyle: Overview

 Prediction: SF hold 

MP at 2017: Elisha McCallion  (SF)
County/Area: Londonderry (Northern Ireland)
Electorate: 70,324
Turnout: 65.4%
2017
Votes
2017
Share
SF18,25639.7%
SDLP18,08739.3%
DUP7,39816.1%
MIN1,3773.0%
OTH8471.8%
NAT Majority1690.4%

EU Referendum vote:

Remain 78%
22% Leave

Foyle ranks #643 for "Leave" out of 650 seats.

Foyle: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Foyle: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Foyle

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Foyle at the general election of 2017. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Foyle. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results. The final block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

FoyleActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
UUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
Other
Votes
Derry and StrabaneBallymagroarty20140583000511325
Derry and StrabaneBrandywell20140425000729262
Derry and StrabaneCarn Hill20140447000442161
Derry and StrabaneCaw201423430438779026697
Derry and StrabaneCity Walls20140414000710255
Derry and StrabaneClaudy2014102270369340229153
Derry and StrabaneClondermot201419425332166022181
Derry and StrabaneCreggan20140407000697250
Derry and StrabaneCreggan South20140381000653234
Derry and StrabaneCulmore20140590000584212
Derry and StrabaneDrumahoe201423029938178026296
Derry and StrabaneEbrington201421728135873024690
Derry and StrabaneEglinton2014118314428390266178
Derry and StrabaneEnagh2014124329448410279186
Derry and StrabaneFoyle Springs20140445000390249
Derry and StrabaneGalliagh20140577000571207
Derry and StrabaneKilfennan201422829737777026095
Derry and StrabaneLisnagelvin201419525332266022281
Derry and StrabaneMadam's Bank20140506000444283
Derry and StrabaneNew Buildings2014110292399370248166
Derry and StrabaneNorthland20140628000551351
Derry and StrabaneShantallow20140493000488177
Derry and StrabaneShantallow East20140600000594216
Derry and StrabaneSheriff's Mountain20140432000740266
Derry and StrabaneSkeoge20140566000560203
Derry and StrabaneSlievekirk2014102271369340230154
Derry and StrabaneSpringtown20140453000397253
Derry and StrabaneVictoria201421327735272024289

FoyleTurnout-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
UUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
Derry and StrabaneBallymagroarty2,89907820006854361,903
Derry and StrabaneBrandywell2,45804840008312981,613
Derry and StrabaneCarn Hill2,22806220006162241,462
Derry and StrabaneCaw2,97333443455211303801381,951
Derry and StrabaneCity Walls2,39504720008092911,572
Derry and StrabaneClaudy1312300219
Derry and StrabaneClondermot2,4682773614589403151151,620
Derry and StrabaneCreggan2,35204640007952851,544
Derry and StrabaneCreggan South2,20304340007452671,446
Derry and StrabaneCulmore2,94208220008142951,931
Derry and StrabaneDrumahoe2,92432842654311103741371,919
Derry and StrabaneEbrington2,75131040151110403511281,805
Derry and StrabaneEglinton2,7201574175695203542371,786
Derry and StrabaneEnagh2,8501654375965503712471,871
Derry and StrabaneFoyle Springs2,21605970005233341,454
Derry and StrabaneGalliagh2,87908050007962891,890
Derry and StrabaneKilfennan2,89932542453811003711351,903
Derry and StrabaneLisnagelvin2,4752783614599403171161,625
Derry and StrabaneMadam's Bank2,52006790005963801,655
Derry and StrabaneNew Buildings2,5341463885304903292211,663
Derry and StrabaneNorthland3,12708420007394712,052
Derry and StrabaneShantallow2,46006870006802471,614
Derry and StrabaneShantallow East2,99208360008273011,964
Derry and StrabaneSheriff's Mountain2,49704920008433031,638
Derry and StrabaneSkeoge2,82307890007812831,853
Derry and StrabaneSlievekirk1,48185227309280193129971
Derry and StrabaneSpringtown2,25206070005323391,478
Derry and StrabaneVictoria2,70630439550210303451271,776
 Total70,0372,71014,6875,570913015,3146,77445,968

The turnout-adjusted results are now combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

FoyleEst. 2017 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
UUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
Derry and StrabaneBallymagroarty2,911090466007901441,904
Derry and StrabaneBrandywell2,46805674500903981,613
Derry and StrabaneCarn Hill2,23706853400670741,463
Derry and StrabaneCaw2,985065967300574451,951
Derry and StrabaneCity Walls2,40505534400879951,571
Derry and StrabaneClaudy1303300309
Derry and StrabaneClondermot2,478054855800476371,619
Derry and StrabaneCreggan2,36205444300864941,545
Derry and StrabaneCreggan South2,21205094000810871,446
Derry and StrabaneCulmore2,95409044400885971,930
Derry and StrabaneDrumahoe2,936064766200565451,919
Derry and StrabaneEbrington2,762060962300531421,805
Derry and StrabaneEglinton2,731057065100487781,786
Derry and StrabaneEnagh2,862059868200510811,871
Derry and StrabaneFoyle Springs2,225069050006041101,454
Derry and StrabaneGalliagh2,89108864300866951,890
Derry and StrabaneKilfennan2,911064365600560441,903
Derry and StrabaneLisnagelvin2,485054856000479391,626
Derry and StrabaneMadam's Bank2,530078557006881251,655
Derry and StrabaneNew Buildings2,544053160700453731,664
Derry and StrabaneNorthland3,140097471008531552,053
Derry and StrabaneShantallow2,47007563700740811,614
Derry and StrabaneShantallow East3,00409204500900991,964
Derry and StrabaneSheriff's Mountain2,507057746009161001,639
Derry and StrabaneSkeoge2,83508684300849931,853
Derry and StrabaneSlievekirk1,48703103540026542971
Derry and StrabaneSpringtown2,261070251006141111,478
Derry and StrabaneVictoria2,717060061200522421,776
 Total70,037018,0907,4000018,2562,22645,968

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Foyle

This table shows the estimated 2017 general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Foyle.

FoyleEst. 2017 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
UUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
Derry and StrabaneBallymagroarty2,911090466007901441,904
Derry and StrabaneBrandywell2,46805674500903981,613
Derry and StrabaneCarn Hill2,23706853400670741,463
Derry and StrabaneCaw2,985065967300574451,951
Derry and StrabaneCity Walls2,40505534400879951,571
Derry and StrabaneClaudy1303300309
Derry and StrabaneClondermot2,478054855800476371,619
Derry and StrabaneCreggan2,36205444300864941,545
Derry and StrabaneCreggan South2,21205094000810871,446
Derry and StrabaneCulmore2,95409044400885971,930
Derry and StrabaneDrumahoe2,936064766200565451,919
Derry and StrabaneEbrington2,762060962300531421,805
Derry and StrabaneEglinton2,731057065100487781,786
Derry and StrabaneEnagh2,862059868200510811,871
Derry and StrabaneFoyle Springs2,225069050006041101,454
Derry and StrabaneGalliagh2,89108864300866951,890
Derry and StrabaneKilfennan2,911064365600560441,903
Derry and StrabaneLisnagelvin2,485054856000479391,626
Derry and StrabaneMadam's Bank2,530078557006881251,655
Derry and StrabaneNew Buildings2,544053160700453731,664
Derry and StrabaneNorthland3,140097471008531552,053
Derry and StrabaneShantallow2,47007563700740811,614
Derry and StrabaneShantallow East3,00409204500900991,964
Derry and StrabaneSheriff's Mountain2,507057746009161001,639
Derry and StrabaneSkeoge2,83508684300849931,853
Derry and StrabaneSlievekirk1,48703103540026542971
Derry and StrabaneSpringtown2,261070251006141111,478
Derry and StrabaneVictoria2,717060061200522421,776
 Total70,037018,0907,4000018,2562,22645,972

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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