Fylde: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Fylde: Overview

 Prediction: CON hold 

MP at 2017: Mark Menzies  (CON)
County/Area: Lancashire (North West)
Electorate: 70,324
Turnout: 66.1%
2017
Votes
2017
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON27,33458.8%54.9%
LAB15,52933.4%33.8%
LIB2,3415.0%5.0%
Green1,2632.7%3.3%
UKIP00.0%2.5%
OTH00.0%0.5%
CON Majority11,80525.4%Pred Maj 21.0%
Chance of
winning
CON
81%
LAB
19%
LIB
0%
Green
0%
UKIP
0%
OTH
0%

Fylde : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Fylde constituency, the 'North West' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatNorth WestAll GB
Party WinnerCONLABCON
Economic Position6° Right6° Left
National Position9° Nat2° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %56%54%52%
British Identity30%28%29%
Good Health45%46%48%
UK Born95%92%88%
Good Education42%37%39%
Good Job58%49%51%
High SEC61%48%51%
Average Age53.148.648.5
ABC1 Class62%50%53%

Fylde ranks #255 for "Leave", #190 for "Right" and #165 for "National" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Fylde: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Fylde: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Fylde

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Fylde at the general election of 2017. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Fylde. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results. The final block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

FyldeActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
FyldeAnsdell20153,998613000727
FyldeAshton20152,7435998970523727
FyldeCentral20152,13468649991700
FyldeClifton20153,6085540001,081
FyldeElswick and Little Eccleston20152770000668
FyldeFairhaven20153,42659150100853
FyldeFreckleton East20157112380001,510
FyldeFreckleton West20157643390001,185
FyldeHeyhouses20153,550843601000
FyldeKilnhouse20152,3805771,20903840
FyldeKirkham North20154693370002,391
FyldeKirkham South201503440001,703
FyldeMedlar-with-Wesham20155065000001,595
FyldeNewton and Treales201502460002,543
FyldePark20154,5967490001,211
FyldeRibby-with-Wrea2015527560000
FyldeSingleton and Greenhalgh20152980000481
FyldeSt Johns20152,357473192003,025
FyldeSt Leonards20152,5476131,25303820
FyldeStaining and Weeton20151,7175310000
FyldeWarton and Westby20152,0455660002,927
PrestonLea20151,589964496000

FyldeTurnout-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
FyldeAnsdell3,2971,7472680003182,333
FyldeAshton3,6281,28328041902453402,567
FyldeCentral3,3861,207388282519002,396
FyldeClifton3,2111,5632400004682,271
FyldeElswick and Little Eccleston1,2062500000603853
FyldeFairhaven3,4191,543266226003842,419
FyldeFreckleton East2,5595231750001,1121,810
FyldeFreckleton West2,2415292350008211,585
FyldeHeyhouses3,8481,9354603280002,723
FyldeKilnhouse3,1541,167283593018802,231
FyldeKirkham North3,1073222320001,6442,198
FyldeKirkham South2,65703160001,5641,880
FyldeMedlar-with-Wesham2,8553933880001,2392,020
FyldeNewton and Treales2,58901620001,6701,832
FyldePark4,0181,9933250005252,843
FyldeRibby-with-Wrea1,102705750000780
FyldeSingleton and Greenhalgh1,0782920000471763
FyldeSt Johns3,6431,00520282001,2892,578
FyldeSt Leonards3,3331,253301616018802,358
FyldeStaining and Weeton2,5381,37142400001,795
FyldeWarton and Westby3,8381,0032780001,4352,716
PrestonLea4,9741,8341,1135720003,519
 Total65,68121,9186,4113,11851962113,88346,470

The turnout-adjusted results are now combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

FyldeEst. 2017 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
FyldeAnsdell3,5301,7565253201902,332
FyldeAshton3,8841,550593238018502,566
FyldeCentral3,6251,35078916109602,396
FyldeClifton3,4381,6914807402602,271
FyldeElswick and Little Eccleston1,291517295160240852
FyldeFairhaven3,6611,64756216504602,420
FyldeFreckleton East2,7409677255406401,810
FyldeFreckleton West2,3998856264403001,585
FyldeHeyhouses4,1201,75572820303702,723
FyldeKilnhouse3,3771,169615318012802,230
FyldeKirkham North3,3279821,0677507402,198
FyldeKirkham South2,8457341,0673504301,879
FyldeMedlar-with-Wesham3,0579249905205302,019
FyldeNewton and Treales2,7728978632404801,832
FyldePark4,3022,0487184503202,843
FyldeRibby-with-Wrea1,1806251429040780
FyldeSingleton and Greenhalgh1,15450324220150762
FyldeSt Johns3,9011,46187816807102,578
FyldeSt Leonards3,5691,306642275013402,357
FyldeStaining and Weeton2,7171,1805761902001,795
FyldeWarton and Westby4,1091,6149983007302,715
PrestonLea5,3261,7721,40830103803,519
 Total65,68127,33315,5292,34001,260046,470

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Fylde

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Fylde.

FyldePredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
FyldeAnsdell3,5301,663535325932112,332
FyldeAshton3,8841,44860423864199132,566
FyldeCentral3,6251,25579916160109122,396
FyldeClifton3,4381,601489745738112,270
FyldeElswick and Little Eccleston1,2914832991621294852
FyldeFairhaven3,6611,5515721656159122,420
FyldeFreckleton East2,74089573254457491,809
FyldeFreckleton West2,39982263344403981,586
FyldeHeyhouses4,1201,6477392036852132,722
FyldeKilnhouse3,3771,08062431856140112,229
FyldeKirkham North3,3278951,076755586112,198
FyldeKirkham South2,8456591,07535475391,878
FyldeMedlar-with-Wesham3,057844998525164102,019
FyldeNewton and Treales2,77282487124465891,832
FyldePark4,3021,935730457148142,843
FyldeRibby-with-Wrea1,18059414592084780
FyldeSingleton and Greenhalgh1,154473245219194762
FyldeSt Johns3,9011,3598891686585132,579
FyldeSt Leonards3,5691,21265227559147122,357
FyldeStaining and Weeton2,7171,10958319453091,795
FyldeWarton and Westby4,1091,5061,009306888132,714
PrestonLea5,3261,6321,4233018857173,518
 Total65,68125,48715,7222,3401,1651,51422946,457

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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