Gainsborough: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Gainsborough: Overview

 Prediction: CON hold 

MP at 2017: Edward Leigh  (CON)
County/Area: Lincolnshire (East Midlands)
Electorate: 75,893
Turnout: 67.8%
2017
Votes
2017
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON31,79061.8%58.1%
LAB14,76728.7%29.1%
LIB3,6307.1%7.1%
Green1,2382.4%2.9%
UKIP00.0%2.4%
OTH00.0%0.5%
CON Majority17,02333.1%Pred Maj 29.0%
Chance of
winning
CON
89%
LAB
11%
LIB
0%
Green
0%
UKIP
0%
OTH
0%

Gainsborough : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Gainsborough constituency, the 'East Midlands' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatEast MidlandsAll GB
Party WinnerCONCONCON
Economic Position10° Right3° Right
National Position12° Nat9° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %62%59%52%
British Identity26%27%29%
Good Health44%45%48%
UK Born96%91%88%
Good Education37%36%39%
Good Job49%48%51%
High SEC51%47%51%
Average Age52.249.148.5
ABC1 Class50%50%53%

Gainsborough ranks #122 for "Leave", #95 for "Right" and #85 for "National" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Gainsborough: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Gainsborough: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Gainsborough

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Gainsborough at the general election of 2017. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Gainsborough. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results. The final block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

GainsboroughActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
East LindseyWragby20157310000582
West LindseyBardney20157150913180221
West LindseyCaistor and Yarborough20152,3391,16405270955
West LindseyCherry Willingham20154,9622,1480001,561
West LindseyDunholme and Welton20155,88802,249001,820
West LindseyGainsborough East20151,6332,4861,47900330
West LindseyGainsborough North20152,5212,0032,068000
West LindseyGainsborough South-West20157109461,41300197
West LindseyHemswell201581821411825100
West LindseyKelsey Wold20151,00919410728300
West LindseyLea2015783208023000
West LindseyMarket Rasen20155,3161,3862,7871,0750384
West LindseyNettleham20152,32102,047000
West LindseySaxilby20152,8514991,39946700
West LindseyScampton20159715160000
West LindseyScotter and Blyton20154,1671,3773,038001,136
West LindseyStow20155160858000
West LindseySudbrooke20151,121324181000
West LindseyTorksey2015-100000
West LindseyWaddingham and Spital20151,0890350000
West LindseyWold View2015799340187000

GainsboroughTurnout-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
East LindseyWragby1,95776500006091,374
West LindseyBardney1,88870509031402181,327
West LindseyCaistor and Yarborough4,1841,379686031105632,939
West LindseyCherry Willingham5,6142,2579770007103,944
West LindseyDunholme and Welton6,6092,74501,049008494,643
West LindseyGainsborough East5,6271,0891,658986002203,953
West LindseyGainsborough North5,2031,3981,1101,1460003,654
West LindseyGainsborough South-West3,9496038031,200001672,773
West LindseyHemswell2,296942246136289001,613
West LindseyKelsey Wold2,10893818099263001,480
West LindseyLea1,7067682040226001,198
West LindseyMarket Rasen6,5462,2335821,17045101614,597
West LindseyNettleham3,0961,15601,0190002,175
West LindseySaxilby4,0961,573275772258002,878
West LindseyScampton2,2991,05456000001,614
West LindseyScotter and Blyton5,9641,7965941,310004904,190
West LindseyStow1,75646307700001,233
West LindseySudbrooke2,1141,0242961650001,485
West LindseyTorksey2,2031,547000001,547
West LindseyWaddingham and Spital1,9371,03003310001,361
West LindseyWold View2,0618723712040001,447
 Total73,21326,3378,54210,4472,11203,98751,425

The turnout-adjusted results are now combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

GainsboroughEst. 2017 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
East LindseyWragby2,0299693065204701,374
West LindseyBardney1,9578923207104301,326
West LindseyCaistor and Yarborough4,3371,7441,0408806702,939
West LindseyCherry Willingham5,8202,5481,11919308403,944
West LindseyDunholme and Welton6,8513,161963384013404,642
West LindseyGainsborough East5,8331,6121,98627807803,954
West LindseyGainsborough North5,3931,6701,54236807403,654
West LindseyGainsborough South-West4,0941,1741,24727507802,774
West LindseyHemswell2,3801,0983937205001,613
West LindseyKelsey Wold2,1851,0443694402401,481
West LindseyLea1,7688502804901901,198
West LindseyMarket Rasen6,7862,9611,105386014604,598
West LindseyNettleham3,2091,38142030207202,175
West LindseySaxilby4,2461,90968422705802,878
West LindseyScampton2,3831,0414717902401,615
West LindseyScotter and Blyton6,1822,5901,172313011404,189
West LindseyStow1,82073125919305001,233
West LindseySudbrooke2,1911,0563476701401,484
West LindseyTorksey2,2841,3371762001501,548
West LindseyWaddingham and Spital2,0081,06117610501901,361
West LindseyWold View2,1369603936602801,447
 Total73,21331,78914,7683,63201,238051,425

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Gainsborough

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Gainsborough.

GainsboroughPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
East LindseyWragby2,02991831152325461,373
West LindseyBardney1,95784332571315061,326
West LindseyCaistor and Yarborough4,3371,6341,051886982142,938
West LindseyCherry Willingham5,8202,4011,13419393104183,943
West LindseyDunholme and Welton6,8512,988981384109158214,641
West LindseyGainsborough East5,8331,4652,0012789398183,953
West LindseyGainsborough North5,3931,5341,5563688693173,654
West LindseyGainsborough South-West4,0941,0711,2582756592132,774
West LindseyHemswell2,3801,03839972385871,612
West LindseyKelsey Wold2,18598937544353271,482
West LindseyLea1,76880528549282561,198
West LindseyMarket Rasen6,7862,7901,123386108170214,598
West LindseyNettleham3,2091,3004283025183102,174
West LindseySaxilby4,2461,8026952276873132,878
West LindseyScampton2,38398147779383271,614
West LindseyScotter and Blyton6,1822,4341,18831399136194,189
West LindseyStow1,820685264193295661,233
West LindseySudbrooke2,1911,00135367352271,485
West LindseyTorksey2,2841,27918220362371,547
West LindseyWaddingham and Spital2,0081,010181105322661,360
West LindseyWold View2,13690639966343571,447
 Total73,21329,87414,9663,6321,2091,50223651,419

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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