Gedling: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Gedling: Overview

 Prediction: LAB hold 

MP at 2017: Vernon Coaker  (LAB)
County/Area: Nottinghamshire (East Midlands)
Electorate: 71,221
Turnout: 72.6%
2017
Votes
2017
Share
Predicted
Votes
LAB26,83351.9%52.3%
CON22,13942.8%39.1%
UKIP1,1432.2%4.6%
LIB1,0522.0%2.0%
Green5151.0%1.5%
OTH00.0%0.5%
LAB Majority4,6949.1%Pred Maj 13.2%
Chance of
winning
LAB
69%
CON
31%
UKIP
0%
LIB
0%
Green
0%
OTH
0%

Gedling : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Gedling constituency, the 'East Midlands' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatEast MidlandsAll GB
Party WinnerLABCONCON
Economic Position4° Left3° Right
National Position4° Nat9° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %55%59%52%
British Identity25%27%29%
Good Health45%45%48%
UK Born94%91%88%
Good Education37%36%39%
Good Job52%48%51%
High SEC52%47%51%
Average Age49.849.148.5
ABC1 Class54%50%53%

Gedling ranks #296 for "Leave", #436 for "Right" and #271 for "National" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Gedling: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Gedling: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Gedling

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Gedling at the general election of 2017. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Gedling. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results. The final block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

GedlingActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
GedlingBestwood St Albans20151,6402,002099400
GedlingCarlton20151,5042,4812331,01000
GedlingCarlton Hill20152,8405,4946492,16200
GedlingCavendish20151,0891,8961,24287600
GedlingColwick20155155660204810
GedlingCoppice20152,0412,44101,1173340
GedlingDaybrook20151,1182,73601,02300
GedlingErnehale20151,8042,1283011,076180288
GedlingGedling20151,6872,1031,1007562030
GedlingNetherfield20159972,3111888432760
GedlingPhoenix20158711,7201,62888100
GedlingPlains20155,8814,3076432,1265680
GedlingPorchester20154,4676,63101,81400
GedlingRedhill20152,2332,85501,07400
GedlingTrent Valley20152,3761,7151,11882400
GedlingWoodthorpe20152,6802,625585573094

GedlingTurnout-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
GedlingBestwood St Albans2,5476658120403001,880
GedlingCarlton4,1328771,447136589003,049
GedlingCarlton Hill6,4791,2182,357278927004,780
GedlingCavendish4,1856591,147752530003,088
GedlingColwick2,14559765602369401,583
GedlingCoppice4,5221,1481,373062818803,337
GedlingDaybrook4,4347501,8350686003,271
GedlingErnehale4,6521,0721,2641796391071713,432
GedlingGedling4,5009581,19462442911503,320
GedlingNetherfield4,4217051,63313359619503,262
GedlingPhoenix4,3125431,0731,016550003,182
GedlingPlains5,1631,6561,21318159916003,809
GedlingPorchester6,1231,5632,3200635004,518
GedlingRedhill4,1321,1051,4130531003,049
GedlingTrent Valley3,9601,151831541399002,922
GedlingWoodthorpe4,3381,3081,2812862800463,201
 Total70,04515,97521,8494,1268,65785921751,683

The turnout-adjusted results are now combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

GedlingEst. 2017 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
GedlingBestwood St Albans2,5908061,004660301,879
GedlingCarlton4,2011,2481,69719751003,049
GedlingCarlton Hill6,5881,8572,747451201004,779
GedlingCavendish4,2551,2451,63598107203,087
GedlingColwick2,18169879228174701,582
GedlingCoppice4,5981,4861,659311006003,336
GedlingDaybrook4,5081,0522,1198632903,271
GedlingErnehale4,7301,4521,77091794003,432
GedlingGedling4,5761,4911,64493524103,321
GedlingNetherfield4,4951,0771,929601148203,262
GedlingPhoenix4,3841,2371,6431691171603,182
GedlingPlains5,2502,0681,59541545103,809
GedlingPorchester6,2261,8652,44879458004,517
GedlingRedhill4,2011,3841,5433188303,049
GedlingTrent Valley4,0261,6231,13912633102,922
GedlingWoodthorpe4,4111,5481,467127194003,201
 Total70,04522,13726,8311,0521,143515051,683

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Gedling

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Gedling.

GedlingPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
GedlingBestwood St Albans2,5907361,01161041391,879
GedlingCarlton4,2011,1341,7091914726143,049
GedlingCarlton Hill6,5881,6792,7664523335224,780
GedlingCavendish4,2551,1301,6479818018143,087
GedlingColwick2,18163979828545571,581
GedlingCoppice4,5981,3621,6723117977153,336
GedlingDaybrook4,5089302,132814046153,271
GedlingErnehale4,7301,3241,7839116058163,432
GedlingGedling4,5761,3671,6579313058153,320
GedlingNetherfield4,4959551,9426019199153,262
GedlingPhoenix4,3841,1181,65516919232153,181
GedlingPlains5,2501,9261,6104114471183,810
GedlingPorchester6,2261,6972,46679151103214,517
GedlingRedhill4,2011,2701,5553116019143,049
GedlingTrent Valley4,0261,5141,15012610216142,922
GedlingWoodthorpe4,4111,4291,4791279456153,200
 Total70,04520,21027,0321,0522,36178223951,676

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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