Grantham and Stamford: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Grantham and Stamford: Overview

 Prediction: CON hold 

MP at 2017: Nick Boles  (CON)
County/Area: Lincolnshire (East Midlands)
Electorate: 81,762
Turnout: 69.2%
2017
Votes
2017
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON35,09062.0%58.3%
LAB14,99626.5%26.9%
LIB3,1205.5%5.5%
UKIP1,7453.1%5.4%
MIN8601.5%1.5%
Green7821.4%1.9%
OTH00.0%0.5%
CON Majority20,09435.5%Pred Maj 31.4%
Chance of
winning
CON
91%
LAB
9%
LIB
0%
UKIP
0%
MIN
0%
Green
0%
OTH
0%

Grantham and Stamford : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Grantham and Stamford constituency, the 'East Midlands' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatEast MidlandsAll GB
Party WinnerCONCONCON
Economic Position12° Right3° Right
National Position13° Nat9° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %61%59%52%
British Identity26%27%29%
Good Health47%45%48%
UK Born92%91%88%
Good Education37%36%39%
Good Job49%48%51%
High SEC50%47%51%
Average Age50.749.148.5
ABC1 Class51%50%53%

Grantham and Stamford ranks #139 for "Leave", #64 for "Right" and #65 for "National" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Grantham and Stamford: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Grantham and Stamford: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Grantham and Stamford

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Grantham and Stamford at the general election of 2017. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Grantham and Stamford. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results. The final block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

Grantham and StamfordActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
South KestevenAveland20151,1143270000
South KestevenBelmont20152,5421,3210000
South KestevenBelvoir20153,3197630000
South KestevenBourne Austerby20154,1726470001,388
South KestevenBourne East20152,279691071500
South KestevenBourne West20152,33965408370940
South KestevenCasewick20153,38900001,889
South KestevenCastle2015842319028600
South KestevenDole Wood20158930000554
South KestevenGlen20159510042200
South KestevenGrantham Arnoldfield20152,08973109990335
South KestevenGrantham Barrowby Gate20151,93786901,099249354
South KestevenGrantham Earlesfield201501,490090300
South KestevenGrantham Harrowby20157491,0500001,693
South KestevenGrantham Springfield20151,5121,03005912540
South KestevenGrantham St Vincent's20152,7782,2760801502659
South KestevenGrantham St Wulfram's20152,7051,259068500
South KestevenIsaac Newton20152,279486073400
South KestevenLincrest20151,1263720000
South KestevenMorton20156800000667
South KestevenStamford All Saints20151,926529060301,255
South KestevenStamford St George's20151,5148820539346928
South KestevenStamford St John's20152,6580062001,604
South KestevenStamford St Mary's20151,857099005921,078
South KestevenToller20159430448000

Grantham and StamfordTurnout-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
South KestevenAveland1,9931,07431500001,389
South KestevenBelmont3,6531,67687100002,547
South KestevenBelvoir1,2016811570000838
South KestevenBourne Austerby3,9561,8542880006172,759
South KestevenBourne East3,1681,3664140429002,209
South KestevenBourne West4,1011,402392050205642,860
South KestevenCasewick3,9471,76700009852,752
South KestevenCastle1,8387462830253001,282
South KestevenDole Wood1,90982200005101,332
South KestevenGlen1,89491500406001,321
South KestevenGrantham Arnoldfield3,1561,107387052901772,200
South KestevenGrantham Barrowby Gate3,8351,14951606521482102,675
South KestevenGrantham Earlesfield4,84502,10401,275003,379
South KestevenGrantham Harrowby3,8515768080001,3022,686
South KestevenGrantham Springfield3,4981,089742042618302,440
South KestevenGrantham St Vincent's5,6041,5471,26804462803673,908
South KestevenGrantham St Wulfram's3,9051,5857370401002,723
South KestevenIsaac Newton3,6341,6513520532002,535
South KestevenLincrest1,9451,02033700001,357
South KestevenMorton1,86965800006451,303
South KestevenStamford All Saints3,7951,182325037007702,647
South KestevenStamford St George's3,08277345002751774742,149
South KestevenStamford St John's3,9741,5090035209112,772
South KestevenStamford St Mary's4,4541,277068104077413,106
South KestevenToller2,04596704590001,426
 Total81,15228,39310,7461,1406,8481,1958,27356,595

The turnout-adjusted results are now combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

Grantham and StamfordEst. 2017 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
South KestevenAveland2,0081,0223112223481,390
South KestevenBelmont3,6801,68472291278152,547
South KestevenBelvoir1,210642150211816838
South KestevenBourne Austerby3,9862,0005741052710442,760
South KestevenBourne East3,1921,49850780116272,210
South KestevenBourne West4,1321,84157820215642422,861
South KestevenCasewick3,9772,122428104925642,752
South KestevenCastle1,8528982745838861,282
South KestevenDole Wood1,9231,0231947435331,332
South KestevenGlen1,9081,07613637539101,321
South KestevenGrantham Arnoldfield3,1801,4095361191061302,201
South KestevenGrantham Barrowby Gate3,8641,61069114914354272,674
South KestevenGrantham Earlesfield4,8818542,0761362687393,380
South KestevenGrantham Harrowby3,8801,1461,197171738902,685
South KestevenGrantham Springfield3,5241,1899596212879232,440
South KestevenGrantham St Vincent's5,6461,9201,535128134128623,907
South KestevenGrantham St Wulfram's3,9341,643870937521232,725
South KestevenIsaac Newton3,6611,8055216910218212,536
South KestevenLincrest1,9601,015303265261,357
South KestevenMorton1,883940217801210461,305
South KestevenStamford All Saints3,8241,6976411447422682,646
South KestevenStamford St George's3,1051,2036281434885422,149
South KestevenStamford St John's4,0042,0034241786730712,773
South KestevenStamford St Mary's4,4871,87442754410190623,107
South KestevenToller2,060979982873114161,425
 Total81,15235,09314,9973,1231,74678386156,595

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Grantham and Stamford

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Grantham and Stamford.

Grantham and StamfordPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
South KestevenAveland2,008970316225611141,389
South KestevenBelmont3,6801,589732918721272,547
South KestevenBelvoir1,2106111532138510838
South KestevenBourne Austerby3,9861,8975851059224572,760
South KestevenBourne East3,1921,4165168016813172,210
South KestevenBourne West4,1321,73458920222357552,860
South KestevenCasewick3,9772,0194391047439772,752
South KestevenCastle1,852850279586815121,282
South KestevenDole Wood1,923973199743412391,331
South KestevenGlen1,9081,027141378416161,321
South KestevenGrantham Arnoldfield3,1801,32754511915812402,201
South KestevenGrantham Barrowby Gate3,8641,51070114920668392,673
South KestevenGrantham Earlesfield4,8817282,08913634824553,380
South KestevenGrantham Harrowby3,8801,0461,207171136221022,684
South KestevenGrantham Springfield3,5241,0989686218592342,439
South KestevenGrantham St Vincent's5,6461,7741,550128226148803,906
South KestevenGrantham St Wulfram's3,9341,5418819313935362,725
South KestevenIsaac Newton3,6611,7105316916231332,536
South KestevenLincrest1,96096430826379121,356
South KestevenMorton1,883891222804317521,305
South KestevenStamford All Saints3,8241,59865114413636802,645
South KestevenStamford St George's3,1051,1236361439996522,149
South KestevenStamford St John's4,0041,90043517813244842,773
South KestevenStamford St Mary's4,4871,75843954483206763,106
South KestevenToller2,0609261042876521231,426
 Total81,15232,98015,2163,1233,0791,0741,12256,594

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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