Hampshire East: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Hampshire East: Overview

 Prediction: CON hold 

MP at 2017: Damian Hinds  (CON)
County/Area: Hampshire (South East)
Electorate: 74,148
Turnout: 74.7%
2017
Votes
2017
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON35,26363.6%59.9%
LAB9,41117.0%17.4%
LIB8,40315.2%15.2%
Green1,7603.2%3.7%
OTH5711.0%1.5%
UKIP00.0%2.4%
CON Majority25,85246.7%Pred Maj 42.5%
Chance of
winning
CON
97%
LAB
2%
LIB
1%
Green
0%
OTH
0%
UKIP
0%

Hampshire East : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Hampshire East constituency, the 'South East' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatSouth EastAll GB
Party WinnerCONCONCON
Economic Position8° Right4° Right
National Position1° Nat3° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %49%52%52%
British Identity31%29%29%
Good Health51%49%48%
UK Born91%88%88%
Good Education47%43%39%
Good Job58%56%51%
High SEC62%57%51%
Average Age51.449.248.5
ABC1 Class63%60%53%

Hampshire East ranks #435 for "Leave", #150 for "Right" and #346 for "National" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Hampshire East: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Hampshire East: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Hampshire East

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Hampshire East at the general election of 2017. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Hampshire East. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results. The final block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

Hampshire EastActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
East HampshireAlton Amery2015631205479000
East HampshireAlton Ashdell2015930177330000
East HampshireAlton Eastbrooke2015574230315000
East HampshireAlton Westbrooke2015522150186242162175
East HampshireAlton Whitedown2015820233687000
East HampshireAlton Wooteys2015585248309000
East HampshireBinsted and Bentley2015-100000
East HampshireBramshott and Liphook20157,4801,5273,68100227
East HampshireDownland2015-100000
East HampshireEast Meon201581715515602560
East HampshireFour Marks and Medstead20156,3679720000
East HampshireFroxfield and Steep20151,2080017300
East HampshireGrayshott20151,0940313000
East HampshireHeadley20153,46201,09095300
East HampshireHolybourne and Froyle20151,3750005030
East HampshireLindford20151,0520301000
East HampshireLiss20152,652712424450570517
East HampshirePetersfield Bell Hill20156121961811571440
East HampshirePetersfield Causeway201570918023002360
East HampshirePetersfield Heath201564101711531870
East HampshirePetersfield Rother201592724701482200
East HampshirePetersfield St Marys201594122201432930
East HampshirePetersfield St Peters20155781652551531700
East HampshireRopley and Tisted2015-100000
East HampshireSelborne2015682036900384
East HampshireThe Hangers and Forest2015983184000257
East HampshireWhitehill Chase201500-1000
East HampshireWhitehill Deadwater201542912722927700
East HampshireWhitehill Hogmoor2015531025827200
East HampshireWhitehill Pinewood201500-1000
East HampshireWhitehill Walldown201563011817017900

Hampshire EastTurnout-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
East HampshireAlton Amery1,8696842225200001,426
East HampshireAlton Ashdell1,8679221763270001,425
East HampshireAlton Eastbrooke2,2378763514810001,708
East HampshireAlton Westbrooke2,2886341822262941972131,746
East HampshireAlton Whitedown2,2898232346900001,747
East HampshireAlton Wooteys1,7927012973700001,368
East HampshireBinsted and Bentley2,2641,728000001,728
East HampshireBramshott and Liphook6,4702,8605841,40700874,938
East HampshireDownland1,8241,392000001,392
East HampshireEast Meon1,789806153154025301,366
East HampshireFour Marks and Medstead4,6043,04846500003,513
East HampshireFroxfield and Steep2,1371,42700204001,631
East HampshireGrayshott1,8451,09503130001,408
East HampshireHeadley4,2542,0420643562003,247
East HampshireHolybourne and Froyle2,1881,22300044701,670
East HampshireLindford2,1491,27503650001,640
East HampshireLiss3,9491,5014032402553232933,015
East HampshirePetersfield Bell Hill1,88468221820217516001,437
East HampshirePetersfield Causeway2,085833211270027701,591
East HampshirePetersfield Heath1,751744019817721701,336
East HampshirePetersfield Rother1,726792211012618801,317
East HampshirePetersfield St Marys2,110948224014429501,611
East HampshirePetersfield St Peters1,86062117727416418301,419
East HampshireRopley and Tisted1,6911,291000001,291
East HampshireSelborne1,7206240338003511,313
East HampshireThe Hangers and Forest1,8729861850002581,429
East HampshireWhitehill Chase1,877001,4320001,432
East HampshireWhitehill Deadwater2,130657194351424001,626
East HampshireWhitehill Hogmoor1,7776790330348001,357
East HampshireWhitehill Pinewood2,517001,9210001,921
East HampshireWhitehill Walldown1,788784147211223001,365
 Total72,60332,6784,63411,2633,0962,5401,20255,413

The turnout-adjusted results are now combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

Hampshire EastEst. 2017 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
East HampshireAlton Amery1,909799237333045111,425
East HampshireAlton Ashdell1,90788924926301861,425
East HampshireAlton Eastbrooke2,28589343634702571,708
East HampshireAlton Westbrooke2,3379344062330110641,747
East HampshireAlton Whitedown2,338955351399030121,747
East HampshireAlton Wooteys1,83075532926601541,369
East HampshireBinsted and Bentley2,3121,47112610102091,727
East HampshireBramshott and Liphook6,6083,098812904079444,937
East HampshireDownland1,8631,222106520841,392
East HampshireEast Meon1,827835253148012461,366
East HampshireFour Marks and Medstead4,7022,765487212035143,513
East HampshireFroxfield and Steep2,1821,3501737502571,630
East HampshireGrayshott1,8841,0789820801961,409
East HampshireHeadley4,3452,235483477039153,249
East HampshireHolybourne and Froyle2,2351,25416666017771,670
East HampshireLindford2,1951,14918928606101,640
East HampshireLiss4,0331,8306402860175833,014
East HampshirePetersfield Bell Hill1,92476133924508491,438
East HampshirePetersfield Causeway2,129939288229012781,591
East HampshirePetersfield Heath1,7887782681740105101,335
East HampshirePetersfield Rother1,76387923012107971,316
East HampshirePetersfield St Marys2,155956357150014071,610
East HampshirePetersfield St Peters1,90068439224609251,419
East HampshireRopley and Tisted1,7271,1011105102261,290
East HampshireSelborne1,757788182229021921,312
East HampshireThe Hangers and Forest1,91299525575034701,429
East HampshireWhitehill Chase1,91755121764401641,432
East HampshireWhitehill Deadwater2,17586448525201691,626
East HampshireWhitehill Hogmoor1,81586924222701171,356
East HampshireWhitehill Pinewood2,571707236911043241,921
East HampshireWhitehill Walldown1,82688127119101751,365
 Total72,60335,2659,4138,40101,75757255,413

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Hampshire East

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Hampshire East.

Hampshire EastPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
East HampshireAlton Amery1,9097462433333452181,426
East HampshireAlton Ashdell1,9078362552633425131,426
East HampshireAlton Eastbrooke2,2858294433474034151,708
East HampshireAlton Westbrooke2,33786941323341119721,747
East HampshireAlton Whitedown2,3388903583994139201,747
East HampshireAlton Wooteys1,8307043342663222101,368
East HampshireBinsted and Bentley2,3121,4071331014129171,728
East HampshireBramshott and Liphook6,6082,914831904116104674,936
East HampshireDownland1,8631,170111523315101,391
East HampshireEast Meon1,82778425814832131121,365
East HampshireFour Marks and Medstead4,7022,6345012128353303,513
East HampshireFroxfield and Steep2,1821,289179753833151,629
East HampshireGrayshott1,8841,0251032083326131,408
East HampshireHeadley4,3452,1144964777756303,250
East HampshireHolybourne and Froyle2,2351,1921726639186151,670
East HampshireLindford2,1951,0881952863914181,640
East HampshireLiss4,0331,71865228671191973,015
East HampshirePetersfield Bell Hill1,9247073452453491161,438
East HampshirePetersfield Causeway2,12988029422938135151,591
East HampshirePetersfield Heath1,78872827317431112161,334
East HampshirePetersfield Rother1,7638302351213186131,316
East HampshirePetersfield St Marys2,15589636315038148141,609
East HampshirePetersfield St Peters1,9006313982463399121,419
East HampshireRopley and Tisted1,7271,053115513029121,290
East HampshireSelborne1,7577391872293128981,312
East HampshireThe Hangers and Forest1,912942261753441771,430
East HampshireWhitehill Chase1,9174982236443423111,433
East HampshireWhitehill Deadwater2,1758034912523824171,625
East HampshireWhitehill Hogmoor1,8158182472273218131,355
East HampshireWhitehill Pinewood2,5716352439114553331,920
East HampshireWhitehill Walldown1,8268302761913224111,364
 Total72,60333,1999,6288,4011,3052,04083055,403

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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