Hampshire North West: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Hampshire North West: Overview

 Prediction: CON hold 

MP at 2017: Kit Malthouse  (CON)
County/Area: Hampshire (South East)
Electorate: 81,430
Turnout: 72.2%
2017
Votes
2017
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON36,47162.1%58.3%
LAB13,79223.5%23.9%
LIB5,7089.7%9.7%
UKIP1,4672.5%4.9%
Green1,3342.3%2.8%
OTH00.0%0.5%
CON Majority22,67938.6%Pred Maj 34.5%
Chance of
winning
CON
94%
LAB
6%
LIB
0%
UKIP
0%
Green
0%
OTH
0%

Hampshire North West : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Hampshire North West constituency, the 'South East' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatSouth EastAll GB
Party WinnerCONCONCON
Economic Position7° Right4° Right
National Position4° Nat3° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %53%52%52%
British Identity29%29%29%
Good Health49%49%48%
UK Born92%88%88%
Good Education41%43%39%
Good Job56%56%51%
High SEC59%57%51%
Average Age50.249.248.5
ABC1 Class60%60%53%

Hampshire North West ranks #344 for "Leave", #154 for "Right" and #270 for "National" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Hampshire North West: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Hampshire North West: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Hampshire North West

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Hampshire North West at the general election of 2017. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Hampshire North West. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results. The final block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

Hampshire North WestActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Basingstoke and DeaneBaughurst and Tadley North20151,6712781,112000
Basingstoke and DeaneBurghclere, Highclere and St Mary Bourne20152,665351432000
Basingstoke and DeaneEast Woodhay2014674135015200
Basingstoke and DeaneKingsclere20152,000524359000
Basingstoke and DeaneOakley and North Waltham20152,5955523784721690
Basingstoke and DeaneOverton, Laverstoke and Steventon20151,0131,04263602040
Basingstoke and DeaneSherborne St John20124949061000
Basingstoke and DeaneTadley Central20156289338600361
Basingstoke and DeaneTadley South20151,787454674000
Basingstoke and DeaneWhitchurch20144691521,03320300
Test ValleyAlamein20155,2071,7212,1429418860
Test ValleyAmport20150004750851
Test ValleyAnna20152,783029629900
Test ValleyBourne Valley2015905020417000
Test ValleyCharlton2015670002930204
Test ValleyHarroway20155,20986901,0661,5500
Test ValleyMillway20155,4375861,0208771,092607
Test ValleyPenton Bellinger20152,988054369300
Test ValleySt Mary's20154,1721,8232,0662,571435159
Test ValleyWinton20155,5471,0249201,1300563

Hampshire North WestTurnout-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
Basingstoke and DeaneBaughurst and Tadley North4,2641,7272871,1490003,163
Basingstoke and DeaneBurghclere, Highclere and St Mary Bourne4,5852,6293464260003,401
Basingstoke and DeaneEast Woodhay2,2611,1762360265001,677
Basingstoke and DeaneKingsclere3,8942,0045253600002,889
Basingstoke and DeaneOakley and North Waltham5,1982,40251135043715603,856
Basingstoke and DeaneOverton, Laverstoke and Steventon3,8651,0031,032630020202,867
Basingstoke and DeaneSherborne St John147841510000109
Basingstoke and DeaneTadley Central2,11767299413003861,570
Basingstoke and DeaneTadley South4,5642,0765277830003,386
Basingstoke and DeaneWhitchurch4,1227722501,701334003,057
Test ValleyAlamein7,1172,5238341,03845642905,280
Test ValleyAmport1,74800046508321,297
Test ValleyAnna3,9442,4110256259002,926
Test ValleyBourne Valley1,6688760197164001,237
Test ValleyCharlton1,5276500028401981,132
Test ValleyHarroway6,2232,766461056682304,616
Test ValleyMillway5,8402,4492644593954922734,332
Test ValleyPenton Bellinger3,6821,9320351448002,731
Test ValleySt Mary's6,2631,7277558551,064180664,647
Test ValleyWinton6,1932,77551246056502824,594
 Total79,22232,6546,6549,4385,7022,2822,03758,767

The turnout-adjusted results are now combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

Hampshire North WestEst. 2017 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
Basingstoke and DeaneBaughurst and Tadley North4,3831,932673514251903,163
Basingstoke and DeaneBurghclere, Highclere and St Mary Bourne4,7132,50257228044303,401
Basingstoke and DeaneEast Woodhay2,3241,23033153352801,677
Basingstoke and DeaneKingsclere4,0031,98360524165402,889
Basingstoke and DeaneOakley and North Waltham5,3432,535899287676903,857
Basingstoke and DeaneOverton, Laverstoke and Steventon3,9731,4041,0133151911602,867
Basingstoke and DeaneSherborne St John15178238010110
Basingstoke and DeaneTadley Central2,17691741220628801,571
Basingstoke and DeaneTadley South4,6912,153811357333303,387
Basingstoke and DeaneWhitchurch4,2371,425755741825503,058
Test ValleyAlamein7,3152,6811,68653820816605,279
Test ValleyAmport1,79763650557811901,298
Test ValleyAnna4,0542,315298210436102,927
Test ValleyBourne Valley1,714881195113232501,237
Test ValleyCharlton1,5707562357460701,132
Test ValleyHarroway6,3962,8821,07823514827404,617
Test ValleyMillway6,0032,8118314069119304,332
Test ValleyPenton Bellinger3,7852,032383209901802,732
Test ValleySt Mary's6,4382,3201,47848526010404,647
Test ValleyWinton6,3662,9971,0093821664104,595
 Total79,22236,47013,7925,7111,4691,334058,767

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Hampshire North West

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Hampshire North West.

Hampshire North WestPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
Basingstoke and DeaneBaughurst and Tadley North4,3831,81468551410035153,163
Basingstoke and DeaneBurghclere, Highclere and St Mary Bourne4,7132,3755852808460163,400
Basingstoke and DeaneEast Woodhay2,3241,16733853753781,678
Basingstoke and DeaneKingsclere4,0031,8756162417469132,888
Basingstoke and DeaneOakley and North Waltham5,3432,39191428715889183,857
Basingstoke and DeaneOverton, Laverstoke and Steventon3,9731,2971,02431587131132,867
Basingstoke and DeaneSherborne St John15174238321111
Basingstoke and DeaneTadley Central2,176858418206651671,570
Basingstoke and DeaneTadley South4,6912,02782435711350163,387
Basingstoke and DeaneWhitchurch4,2371,31176774115471143,058
Test ValleyAlamein7,3152,4841,706538332193245,277
Test ValleyAmport1,797588510571122661,299
Test ValleyAnna4,0542,20630921011276142,927
Test ValleyBourne Valley1,714835200113523161,237
Test ValleyCharlton1,57071423974871351,132
Test ValleyHarroway6,3962,7101,096235257298214,617
Test ValleyMillway6,0032,649848406193215204,331
Test ValleyPenton Bellinger3,7851,93039420915432132,732
Test ValleySt Mary's6,4382,1471,496485370128214,647
Test ValleyWinton6,3662,8261,02738227465214,595
 Total79,22234,27814,0195,7112,8561,63727258,773

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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