Harrogate and Knaresborough: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Harrogate and Knaresborough: Overview

 Prediction: CON hold 

MP at 2017: Andrew Jones  (CON)
County/Area: North Yorkshire (Yorks/Humber)
Electorate: 77,265
Turnout: 73.4%
2017
Votes
2017
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON31,47755.5%51.7%
LIB13,30923.5%23.5%
LAB11,39520.1%20.5%
OTH5591.0%1.5%
UKIP00.0%2.4%
Green00.0%0.5%
CON Majority18,16832.0%Pred Maj 28.2%
Chance of
winning
CON
87%
LIB
3%
LAB
11%
OTH
0%
UKIP
0%
Green
0%

Harrogate and Knaresborough : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Harrogate and Knaresborough constituency, the 'Yorks/Humber' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatYorks/HumberAll GB
Party WinnerCONLABCON
Economic Position12° Right3° Left
National Position1° Nat6° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %46%58%52%
British Identity31%28%29%
Good Health50%46%48%
UK Born90%92%88%
Good Education47%36%39%
Good Job58%47%51%
High SEC63%46%51%
Average Age50.948.548.5
ABC1 Class63%49%53%

Harrogate and Knaresborough ranks #480 for "Leave", #71 for "Right" and #348 for "National" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Harrogate and Knaresborough: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Harrogate and Knaresborough: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Harrogate and Knaresborough

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Harrogate and Knaresborough at the general election of 2017. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Harrogate and Knaresborough. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results. The final block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

Harrogate and KnaresboroughActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
HarrogateBilton20159762501,2394541740
HarrogateBoroughbridge20126542070000
HarrogateClaro2012742134296000
HarrogateGranby20158794011,09040700
HarrogateHarlow Moor20151,73434570728100
HarrogateHigh Harrogate20151,517343823025860
HarrogateHookstone20151,2942221,46702160
HarrogateKillinghall2012667987310100
HarrogateKnaresborough East20159553218243711960
HarrogateKnaresborough King James20151,295288303552900
HarrogateKnaresborough Scriven Park20151,4113766133442000
HarrogateLow Harrogate20151,48439169427600
HarrogateNew Park20157952579954171850
HarrogatePannal20152,1223085922632000
HarrogateRossett20152,2682087983082510
HarrogateSaltergate20151,3212606464221730
HarrogateStarbeck20158013829924182120
HarrogateStray20151,782377976000
HarrogateWoodfield20157303987705012020

Harrogate and KnaresboroughTurnout-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
HarrogateBilton4,1199532441,21044317003,020
HarrogateBoroughbridge2,3771,32441900001,743
HarrogateClaro2,3931,1112014430001,755
HarrogateGranby4,9561,1505251,426533003,634
HarrogateHarlow Moor4,3381,798358733291003,180
HarrogateHigh Harrogate4,7771,7714009610301703,503
HarrogateHookstone4,1351,2262101,390020503,031
HarrogateKillinghall2,5181,312193144199001,848
HarrogateKnaresborough East3,8281,00533886739020602,806
HarrogateKnaresborough King James3,9201,3302985336529802,875
HarrogateKnaresborough Scriven Park4,2431,49139764836421103,111
HarrogateLow Harrogate4,6611,783470834332003,419
HarrogateNew Park4,2319313011,16548821703,102
HarrogatePannal4,2271,88727452723417803,100
HarrogateRossett4,8762,11619474428723403,575
HarrogateSaltergate4,4861,54030375349220203,290
HarrogateStarbeck4,7659984761,23652126403,495
HarrogateStray4,4481,8543921,0150003,261
HarrogateWoodfield4,08384045888657723302,994
 Total77,38126,4206,18215,8355,5162,7197056,742

The turnout-adjusted results are now combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

Harrogate and KnaresboroughEst. 2017 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
HarrogateBilton4,1131,49360888500353,021
HarrogateBoroughbridge2,3731,20139813300111,743
HarrogateClaro2,3891,2342033100071,754
HarrogateGranby4,9491,6059521,04200363,635
HarrogateHarlow Moor4,3311,94357664200203,181
HarrogateHigh Harrogate4,7701,86473384400633,504
HarrogateHookstone4,1291,51649798900293,031
HarrogateKillinghall2,5141,31126625500151,847
HarrogateKnaresborough East3,8221,38567071600352,806
HarrogateKnaresborough King James3,9141,72444367500322,874
HarrogateKnaresborough Scriven Park4,2371,77867762500323,112
HarrogateLow Harrogate4,6541,93766279400263,419
HarrogateNew Park4,2251,46473486100433,102
HarrogatePannal4,2212,06945855000223,099
HarrogateRossett4,8692,36946471300303,576
HarrogateSaltergate4,4791,82072770900343,290
HarrogateStarbeck4,7581,54693097800413,495
HarrogateStray4,4411,92251781100123,262
HarrogateWoodfield4,0771,29888177800382,995
 Total77,38131,47911,39613,3100056156,742

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Harrogate and Knaresborough

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Harrogate and Knaresborough.

Harrogate and KnaresboroughPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
HarrogateBilton4,1131,3796208857216493,021
HarrogateBoroughbridge2,3731,135405133419191,742
HarrogateClaro2,3891,168210310429151,754
HarrogateGranby4,9491,4689661,0428719533,635
HarrogateHarlow Moor4,3311,8235886427617353,181
HarrogateHigh Harrogate4,7701,7327478448318793,503
HarrogateHookstone4,1291,4025099897216433,031
HarrogateKillinghall2,5141,2412732554410241,847
HarrogateKnaresborough East3,8221,2796817166715482,806
HarrogateKnaresborough King James3,9141,6164546756815452,873
HarrogateKnaresborough Scriven Park4,2371,6616896257416473,112
HarrogateLow Harrogate4,6541,8086757948118423,418
HarrogateNew Park4,2251,3477468617416573,101
HarrogatePannal4,2211,9524705507416363,098
HarrogateRossett4,8692,2344787138519473,576
HarrogateSaltergate4,4791,6967407097817493,289
HarrogateStarbeck4,7581,4149449788318573,494
HarrogateStray4,4411,7995308117817273,262
HarrogateWoodfield4,0771,1858937787116522,995
 Total77,38129,33911,61813,3101,35029782456,738

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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