Harwich and North Essex: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Harwich and North Essex: Overview

 Prediction: CON hold 

MP at 2017: Bernard Jenkin  (CON)
County/Area: Essex (Anglia)
Electorate: 71,294
Turnout: 71.7%
2017
Votes
2017
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON29,92158.5%54.8%
LAB15,56530.4%30.8%
LIB2,7875.4%5.5%
UKIP1,6853.3%5.7%
Green1,0422.0%2.6%
OTH1410.3%0.7%
CON Majority14,35628.1%Pred Maj 23.9%
Chance of
winning
CON
86%
LAB
14%
LIB
0%
UKIP
0%
Green
0%
OTH
0%

Harwich and North Essex : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Harwich and North Essex constituency, the 'Anglia' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatAngliaAll GB
Party WinnerCONCONCON
Economic Position8° Right8° Right
National Position10° Nat10° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %55%57%52%
British Identity25%27%29%
Good Health46%47%48%
UK Born94%89%88%
Good Education37%37%39%
Good Job52%53%51%
High SEC53%53%51%
Average Age51.649.448.5
ABC1 Class55%55%53%

Harwich and North Essex ranks #292 for "Leave", #136 for "Right" and #136 for "National" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Harwich and North Essex: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Harwich and North Essex: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Harwich and North Essex

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Harwich and North Essex at the general election of 2017. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Harwich and North Essex. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results. The final block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

Harwich and North EssexActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
ColchesterDedham and Langham201259681810780
ColchesterEast Donyland2012209488210390
ColchesterFordham and Stour20152,02339632703360
ColchesterGreat Tey20159791702571621040
ColchesterPyefleet20145871247301310
ColchesterWest Bergholt and Eight Ash Green20151,578306265370204163
ColchesterWest Mersea20152,1544022789883300
ColchesterWivenhoe Cross2015271328668901300
ColchesterWivenhoe Quay20151,2511,29529503250
TendringAlresford2015265110828000
TendringArdleigh and Little Bromley20159852880000
TendringBradfield, Wrabness and Wix2015723273039900
TendringBrightlingsea20153,4561,097006336,156
TendringGreat Bentley2015785130304000
TendringGreat and Little Oakley201531916602610405
TendringHarwich East20153706860000
TendringHarwich East Central20151,4561,703067800
TendringHarwich West20151,5751,43401,44700
TendringHarwich West Central20151,8012,1940000
TendringLawford20152,3331,056003990
TendringManningtree, Mistley, Little Bentley and Tendring20152,544675007820
TendringRamsey and Parkeston2015390278038900
TendringThorrington, Frating, Elmstead and Great Bromley20153,115625611000

Harwich and North EssexTurnout-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
ColchesterDedham and Langham2,2351,176160160015401,650
ColchesterEast Donyland2,0214129624107701,492
ColchesterFordham and Stour4,0461,960384317032602,987
ColchesterGreat Tey2,0448831532321469401,508
ColchesterPyefleet1,972934197116020801,455
ColchesterWest Bergholt and Eight Ash Green3,8611,5583022623652011612,849
ColchesterWest Mersea5,4572,09039027095832004,028
ColchesterWivenhoe Cross3,5424765771,17415822902,614
ColchesterWivenhoe Quay4,0761,1891,231280030903,009
TendringAlresford1,5292491037770001,129
TendringArdleigh and Little Bromley1,73198928900001,278
TendringBradfield, Wrabness and Wix1,6936482450357001,250
TendringBrightlingsea6,1361,380438002532,4584,529
TendringGreat Bentley1,7028091343130001,256
TendringGreat and Little Oakley1,637335174027404251,208
TendringHarwich East2,03252697400001,500
TendringHarwich East Central3,8511,0791,2620502002,843
TendringHarwich West3,7819868980906002,790
TendringHarwich West Central3,7621,2521,52500002,777
TendringLawford3,2851,4936760025502,424
TendringManningtree, Mistley, Little Bentley and Tendring3,5101,6474370050602,590
TendringRamsey and Parkeston1,8134943520492001,338
TendringThorrington, Frating, Elmstead and Great Bromley3,5711,8873793700002,636
 Total69,28724,45212,2424,3124,1582,9323,04451,140

The turnout-adjusted results are now combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

Harwich and North EssexEst. 2017 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
ColchesterDedham and Langham2,3001,20727812733041,649
ColchesterEast Donyland2,0805997518394731,492
ColchesterFordham and Stour4,1632,137617149116672,987
ColchesterGreat Tey2,1031,10725087362621,508
ColchesterPyefleet2,0291,01930659125911,456
ColchesterWest Bergholt and Eight Ash Green3,9731,857632208935452,849
ColchesterWest Mersea5,6152,76376217222310174,028
ColchesterWivenhoe Cross3,6459511,023482629602,614
ColchesterWivenhoe Quay4,1941,3711,179292115973,009
TendringAlresford1,57358624027221631,128
TendringArdleigh and Little Bromley1,781942305145841,278
TendringBradfield, Wrabness and Wix1,742811291261041711,250
TendringBrightlingsea6,3142,7591,258212127112624,530
TendringGreat Bentley1,75183324514824421,256
TendringGreat and Little Oakley1,68470137626893131,208
TendringHarwich East2,0915788171384621,500
TendringHarwich East Central3,9631,2791,30059194822,842
TendringHarwich West3,8911,3621,11029282532,791
TendringHarwich West Central3,8711,3411,30731831052,777
TendringLawford3,3801,48277378236722,425
TendringManningtree, Mistley, Little Bentley and Tendring3,6121,767624451813242,590
TendringRamsey and Parkeston1,86661454620148821,338
TendringThorrington, Frating, Elmstead and Great Bromley3,6741,853574155341812,635
 Total69,28729,91915,5642,7871,6861,04214251,140

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Harwich and North Essex

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Harwich and North Essex.

Harwich and North EssexPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
ColchesterDedham and Langham2,3001,1452841274239121,649
ColchesterEast Donyland2,080543757834455101,492
ColchesterFordham and Stour4,1632,0256291498281212,987
ColchesterGreat Tey2,1031,05125687723491,509
ColchesterPyefleet2,02996531259466781,457
ColchesterWest Bergholt and Eight Ash Green3,9731,75064320816069182,848
ColchesterWest Mersea5,6152,612778172318122264,028
ColchesterWivenhoe Cross3,6458531,033482124109122,613
ColchesterWivenhoe Quay4,1941,2581,19129272175213,009
TendringAlresford1,573544244272481281,128
TendringArdleigh and Little Bromley1,781894310143515101,278
TendringBradfield, Wrabness and Wix1,742764296261342371,250
TendringBrightlingsea6,3142,5901,276212234135834,530
TendringGreat Bentley1,751786250148541081,256
TendringGreat and Little Oakley1,684656381261189191,209
TendringHarwich East2,091522823131191491,500
TendringHarwich East Central3,9631,1731,3115926123152,842
TendringHarwich West3,8911,2581,1212934819162,791
TendringHarwich West Central3,8711,2371,3183114924182,777
TendringLawford3,3801,391782788080132,424
TendringManningtree, Mistley, Little Bentley and Tendring3,6121,6706344579145162,589
TendringRamsey and Parkeston1,866564551201801581,338
TendringThorrington, Frating, Elmstead and Great Bromley3,6741,7545841559632132,634
 Total69,28728,00515,7642,7872,8951,30738051,138

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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