Hemel Hempstead: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Hemel Hempstead: Overview

 Prediction: CON hold 

MP at 2017: Mike Penning  (CON)
County/Area: Hertfordshire (Anglia)
Electorate: 75,011
Turnout: 69.7%
2017
Votes
2017
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON28,73555.0%51.2%
LAB19,29036.9%37.3%
LIB3,2336.2%6.2%
Green1,0242.0%2.5%
UKIP00.0%2.4%
OTH00.0%0.5%
CON Majority9,44518.1%Pred Maj 13.9%
Chance of
winning
CON
74%
LAB
27%
LIB
0%
Green
0%
UKIP
0%
OTH
0%

Hemel Hempstead : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Hemel Hempstead constituency, the 'Anglia' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatAngliaAll GB
Party WinnerCONCONCON
Economic Position10° Right8° Right
National Position10° Nat10° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %56%57%52%
British Identity27%27%29%
Good Health48%47%48%
UK Born89%89%88%
Good Education38%37%39%
Good Job55%53%51%
High SEC55%53%51%
Average Age48.249.448.5
ABC1 Class57%55%53%

Hemel Hempstead ranks #261 for "Leave", #94 for "Right" and #132 for "National" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Hemel Hempstead: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Hemel Hempstead: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Hemel Hempstead

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Hemel Hempstead at the general election of 2017. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Hemel Hempstead. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results. The final block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

Hemel HempsteadActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
DacorumAdeyfield East20152,0581,0562535691860
DacorumAdeyfield West20151,4691,1461,17867200
DacorumApsley and Corner Hall20154,8402,1316711,0017390
DacorumAshridge20151,28120114801110
DacorumBennetts End20152,2071,7133707012810
DacorumBoxmoor20156,2631,8131,4501,7228310
DacorumChaulden and Warners End20155,7863,2828621,0795070
DacorumGadebridge20152,0411,337223595226125
DacorumGrovehill20154,1011,6424619964170
DacorumHemel Hempstead Town20151,7441,48652644200
DacorumHighfield20151,1297061,1326322300
DacorumKings Langley20153,15178247105730
DacorumLeverstock Green20156,4101,2307401,0957770
DacorumNash Mills201584638592242850
DacorumWatling20153,623957517000
DacorumWoodhall Farm20152,86608306483700

Hemel HempsteadTurnout-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
DacorumAdeyfield East3,8671,35369416637412202,709
DacorumAdeyfield West4,334999779801457003,036
DacorumApsley and Corner Hall6,4232,3221,02232248035404,500
DacorumAshridge2,0241,04316412109001,418
DacorumBennetts End4,8041,4091,09423644817903,366
DacorumBoxmoor6,3892,32167253763830804,476
DacorumChaulden and Warners End6,7122,3631,34035244120704,703
DacorumGadebridge4,1611,309857143382145802,916
DacorumGrovehill5,8972,22589125054022604,132
DacorumHemel Hempstead Town4,2091,2251,044370311002,950
DacorumHighfield4,38590656790850718503,073
DacorumKings Langley3,9031,731430259031502,735
DacorumLeverstock Green6,8462,99957634651236404,797
DacorumNash Mills2,182784357852247901,529
DacorumWatling4,0802,0325372900002,859
DacorumWoodhall Farm4,4001,874054342424203,083
 Total74,61626,89511,0245,7295,7382,8168052,282

The turnout-adjusted results are now combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

Hemel HempsteadEst. 2017 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
DacorumAdeyfield East3,8871,4361,1479702902,709
DacorumAdeyfield West4,3571,3391,37830701203,036
DacorumApsley and Corner Hall6,4572,4101,719235013604,500
DacorumAshridge2,0351,0242977402401,419
DacorumBennetts End4,8291,6361,45421206503,367
DacorumBoxmoor6,4232,5361,464345013204,477
DacorumChaulden and Warners End6,7482,5791,79225507804,704
DacorumGadebridge4,1831,5601,18712904002,916
DacorumGrovehill5,9282,2491,67014906404,132
DacorumHemel Hempstead Town4,2311,3111,38520704602,949
DacorumHighfield4,4081,3381,39529504603,074
DacorumKings Langley3,9241,74771418109202,734
DacorumLeverstock Green6,8822,9761,45028009004,796
DacorumNash Mills2,1948665577603101,530
DacorumWatling4,1021,86876815606702,859
DacorumWoodhall Farm4,4231,85991423707303,083
 Total74,61628,73419,2913,23501,025052,282

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Hemel Hempstead

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Hemel Hempstead.

Hemel HempsteadPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
DacorumAdeyfield East3,8871,3351,157976443132,709
DacorumAdeyfield West4,3571,2251,3903077228143,036
DacorumApsley and Corner Hall6,4572,2421,736235106159214,499
DacorumAshridge2,03597130274343171,419
DacorumBennetts End4,8291,5101,4672128082163,367
DacorumBoxmoor6,4232,3691,481345106155214,477
DacorumChaulden and Warners End6,7482,4031,810255111102224,703
DacorumGadebridge4,1831,4511,1981296955142,916
DacorumGrovehill5,9282,0941,6861499885194,131
DacorumHemel Hempstead Town4,2311,2011,3962077061142,949
DacorumHighfield4,4081,2231,4072957362143,074
DacorumKings Langley3,9241,64572518165106132,735
DacorumLeverstock Green6,8822,7971,469280113115224,796
DacorumNash Mills2,19480956376363971,530
DacorumWatling4,1021,7617791566882132,859
DacorumWoodhall Farm4,4231,7449262377389143,083
 Total74,61626,78019,4923,2351,2381,29424452,283

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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