Hereford and South Herefordshire: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Hereford and South Herefordshire: Overview

 Prediction: CON hold 

MP at 2017: Jesse Norman  (CON)
County/Area: Hereford and Worcestershire (West Midlands)
Electorate: 71,088
Turnout: 71.0%
2017
Votes
2017
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON27,00453.5%49.7%
LAB11,99123.8%24.1%
MIN5,56011.0%11.0%
LIB3,5567.0%7.0%
Green1,2202.4%2.9%
UKIP1,1532.3%4.7%
OTH00.0%0.5%
CON Majority15,01329.7%Pred Maj 25.6%
Chance of
winning
CON
82%
LAB
18%
MIN
0%
LIB
0%
Green
0%
UKIP
0%
OTH
0%

Hereford and South Herefordshire : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Hereford and South Herefordshire constituency, the 'West Midlands' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatWest MidlandsAll GB
Party WinnerCONCONCON
Economic Position12° Right2° Right
National Position13° Nat9° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %61%59%52%
British Identity26%28%29%
Good Health46%45%48%
UK Born93%89%88%
Good Education37%35%39%
Good Job44%48%51%
High SEC47%46%51%
Average Age50.448.748.5
ABC1 Class46%49%53%

Hereford and South Herefordshire ranks #133 for "Leave", #68 for "Right" and #68 for "National" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Hereford and South Herefordshire: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Hereford and South Herefordshire: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Hereford and South Herefordshire

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Hereford and South Herefordshire at the general election of 2017. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Hereford and South Herefordshire. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results. The final block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

Hereford and South HerefordshireActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
HerefordshireAylestone Hill20154530179001,049
HerefordshireBelmont Rural201554700001,112
HerefordshireBirch201586800001,003
HerefordshireBobblestock201550202363300472
HerefordshireCentral2015398032100746
HerefordshireCollege2015539017900817
HerefordshireDinedor Hill20158580000900
HerefordshireEign Hill20155030263001,131
HerefordshireGolden Valley North2015860001890854
HerefordshireGolden Valley South20151,364000357351
HerefordshireGreyfriars20154530233001,036
HerefordshireHinton and Hunderton2015002040182977
HerefordshireHolmer201557700001,170
HerefordshireKerne Bridge2015919028200643
HerefordshireKings Acre201500517001,032
HerefordshireLlangarron20151,150032900564
HerefordshireNewton Farm2015210015100916
HerefordshirePenyard20151,3150000741
HerefordshireRed Hill201568427817600400
HerefordshireRoss East201568903132820613
HerefordshireRoss North20158330744000
HerefordshireRoss West2015871064100244
HerefordshireSaxon Gate2015549035000626
HerefordshireStoney Street2015611000362962
HerefordshireTupsley20153410166001,390
HerefordshireWhitecross201535802913180563
HerefordshireWidemarsh2015260040900386
HerefordshireWormside2015742015800947

Hereford and South HerefordshireTurnout-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
HerefordshireAylestone Hill2,6205040199001,1671,870
HerefordshireBelmont Rural2,74164500001,3121,957
HerefordshireBirch2,32376900008891,658
HerefordshireBobblestock2,480577027137905431,770
HerefordshireCentral2,4304710380008831,734
HerefordshireCollege2,7937000233001,0611,994
HerefordshireDinedor Hill2,66592900009741,903
HerefordshireEign Hill2,5544830253001,0871,823
HerefordshireGolden Valley North2,2287190015807141,591
HerefordshireGolden Valley South2,3761,1170002922871,696
HerefordshireGreyfriars2,8405330274001,2202,027
HerefordshireHinton and Hunderton3,0550032602911,5632,180
HerefordshireHolmer1,1312670000541808
HerefordshireKerne Bridge2,3748450259005911,695
HerefordshireKings Acre2,56600611001,2211,832
HerefordshireLlangarron2,4489840281004821,747
HerefordshireNewton Farm3,1683720267001,6222,261
HerefordshirePenyard2,3591,07700006071,684
HerefordshireRed Hill2,946935380241005472,103
HerefordshireRoss East2,579669030427405951,842
HerefordshireRoss North2,51094708450001,792
HerefordshireRoss West2,5749120671002551,838
HerefordshireSaxon Gate3,1828180521009332,272
HerefordshireStoney Street2,1214780002837531,514
HerefordshireTupsley2,3012950144001,2041,643
HerefordshireWhitecross2,518421034237406621,799
HerefordshireWidemarsh2,1703820601005671,550
HerefordshireWormside2,6587620162009731,897
 Total70,71017,6113807,1851,18586623,25350,480

The turnout-adjusted results are now combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

Hereford and South HerefordshireEst. 2017 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
HerefordshireAylestone Hill2,63497447413019222521,871
HerefordshireBelmont Rural2,7561,0555474912252691,957
HerefordshireBirch2,3351,128252337391981,657
HerefordshireBobblestock2,493802488102198201611,771
HerefordshireCentral2,4437555401606672071,735
HerefordshireCollege2,80892665214019212341,992
HerefordshireDinedor Hill2,6791,2363089711242271,903
HerefordshireEign Hill2,5688704961707502311,824
HerefordshireGolden Valley North2,2409832129082531701,590
HerefordshireGolden Valley South2,3891,1711236682001291,697
HerefordshireGreyfriars2,8559476431497292542,029
HerefordshireHinton and Hunderton3,071733751149621803062,181
HerefordshireHolmer1,1374612002739108808
HerefordshireKerne Bridge2,3871,1562411005331601,695
HerefordshireKings Acre2,58072657920645242531,833
HerefordshireLlangarron2,4611,1982461091401531,747
HerefordshireNewton Farm3,18592981411571213122,262
HerefordshirePenyard2,3721,219229530221611,684
HerefordshireRed Hill2,9621,05665212076141852,103
HerefordshireRoss East2,593961368175149191701,842
HerefordshireRoss North2,5231,0902663082014931,791
HerefordshireRoss West2,5881,11429126023211301,839
HerefordshireSaxon Gate3,1991,19458718835292392,272
HerefordshireStoney Street2,13283926540301651751,514
HerefordshireTupsley2,3138424251186152381,644
HerefordshireWhitecross2,531785453145219151811,798
HerefordshireWidemarsh2,18265649718327361521,551
HerefordshireWormside2,6721,198395716132151,898
 Total70,71027,00411,9943,5531,1541,2205,56350,480

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Hereford and South Herefordshire

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Hereford and South Herefordshire.

Hereford and South HerefordshirePredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
HerefordshireAylestone Hill2,63490348113064322611,871
HerefordshireBelmont Rural2,7569815554959352781,957
HerefordshireBirch2,3351,0652593347482061,658
HerefordshireBobblestock2,493735495102240291691,770
HerefordshireCentral2,44368954716048762151,735
HerefordshireCollege2,80885166014067312431,992
HerefordshireDinedor Hill2,6791,1643159757342361,903
HerefordshireEign Hill2,56880150317051602401,825
HerefordshireGolden Valley North2,24092321890120611771,589
HerefordshireGolden Valley South2,3891,10713066492091371,698
HerefordshireGreyfriars2,85587065114956402642,030
HerefordshireHinton and Hunderton3,0716507601491141913162,180
HerefordshireHolmer1,137430203272213112807
HerefordshireKerne Bridge2,3871,09224810046421681,696
HerefordshireKings Acre2,58065758620689342621,834
HerefordshireLlangarron2,4611,13225310943491611,747
HerefordshireNewton Farm3,185843823115125333232,262
HerefordshirePenyard2,3721,1552365340311691,684
HerefordshireRed Hill2,962976660120126251952,102
HerefordshireRoss East2,593891375175193291791,842
HerefordshireRoss North2,5231,02227330863231011,790
HerefordshireRoss West2,5881,04429826067311391,839
HerefordshireSaxon Gate3,1991,10859618889412502,272
HerefordshireStoney Street2,13278227140661731821,514
HerefordshireTupsley2,31378043111845242461,644
HerefordshireWhitecross2,531717460145262241891,797
HerefordshireWidemarsh2,18259750318364441591,550
HerefordshireWormside2,6721,1264027151232241,897
 Total70,71025,09112,1923,5532,3631,4855,80150,485

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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