Hertford and Stortford: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Hertford and Stortford: Overview

 Prediction: CON hold 

MP at 2017: Mark Prisk  (CON)
County/Area: Hertfordshire (Anglia)
Electorate: 82,429
Turnout: 72.8%
2017
Votes
2017
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON36,18460.3%56.6%
LAB17,14928.6%29.0%
LIB4,8458.1%8.1%
Green1,8143.0%3.5%
UKIP00.0%2.4%
OTH00.0%0.5%
CON Majority19,03531.7%Pred Maj 27.6%
Chance of
winning
CON
89%
LAB
11%
LIB
0%
Green
0%
UKIP
0%
OTH
0%

Hertford and Stortford : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Hertford and Stortford constituency, the 'Anglia' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatAngliaAll GB
Party WinnerCONCONCON
Economic Position11° Right8° Right
National Position6° Nat10° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %50%57%52%
British Identity27%27%29%
Good Health53%47%48%
UK Born91%89%88%
Good Education46%37%39%
Good Job63%53%51%
High SEC65%53%51%
Average Age48.549.448.5
ABC1 Class67%55%53%

Hertford and Stortford ranks #420 for "Leave", #74 for "Right" and #229 for "National" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Hertford and Stortford: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Hertford and Stortford: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Hertford and Stortford

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Hertford and Stortford at the general election of 2017. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Hertford and Stortford. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results. The final block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

Hertford and StortfordActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
East HertfordshireBishop's Stortford All Saints20154,3361,8572,9815444710
East HertfordshireBishop's Stortford Central20155,7922,6891,4001,0277540
East HertfordshireBishop's Stortford Meads20152,6616536675755490
East HertfordshireBishop's Stortford Silverleys20153,29256505375290
East HertfordshireBishop's Stortford South20157,4171,17101,01300
East HertfordshireGreat Amwell20151,1160003600
East HertfordshireHertford Bengeo20156,5562,87005717370
East HertfordshireHertford Castle20156,7613,282001,0161,243
East HertfordshireHertford Heath2015736204024996344
East HertfordshireHertford Kingsmead20152,9431,14241906840
East HertfordshireHertford Sele20152,3461,652004670
East HertfordshireHunsdon201565001643910368
East HertfordshireMuch Hadham2015913004322180
East HertfordshireSawbridgeworth20157,41292801,7682,1450
East HertfordshireStanstead Abbots2015975025302790
East HertfordshireWare Chadwell20151,109327002150
East HertfordshireWare Christchurch20152,4416905595494200
East HertfordshireWare St Mary's20152,489509368495321234
East HertfordshireWare Trinity20151,9785598125672970

Hertford and StortfordTurnout-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
East HertfordshireBishop's Stortford All Saints5,8861,9048161,30923920704,475
East HertfordshireBishop's Stortford Central7,1252,6901,24965047735005,416
East HertfordshireBishop's Stortford Meads4,2251,67441142036234503,212
East HertfordshireBishop's Stortford Silverleys4,0942,081357034033403,112
East HertfordshireBishop's Stortford South6,6403,9006160533005,049
East HertfordshireGreat Amwell2,1631,24300040101,644
East HertfordshireHertford Bengeo5,5092,5581,120022328804,189
East HertfordshireHertford Castle6,1202,5571,241003844704,652
East HertfordshireHertford Heath2,42383223102821093891,843
East HertfordshireHertford Kingsmead4,0371,741676248040503,070
East HertfordshireHertford Sele4,1041,6391,1540032603,119
East HertfordshireHunsdon2,036640016138503621,548
East HertfordshireMuch Hadham2,1219420044622501,613
East HertfordshireSawbridgeworth6,2592,879360068783304,759
East HertfordshireStanstead Abbots2,2711,1170290032001,727
East HertfordshireWare Chadwell2,2401,1443370022201,703
East HertfordshireWare Christchurch3,7801,50642634533925902,875
East HertfordshireWare St Mary's3,8921,6683412473322151572,960
East HertfordshireWare Trinity3,9821,42140258440721303,027
 Total78,90734,1369,7374,2545,0525,4361,37859,993

The turnout-adjusted results are now combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

Hertford and StortfordEst. 2017 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
East HertfordshireBishop's Stortford All Saints6,1492,2491,24789208704,475
East HertfordshireBishop's Stortford Central7,4432,9091,810580011805,417
East HertfordshireBishop's Stortford Meads4,4141,814866409012403,213
East HertfordshireBishop's Stortford Silverleys4,2772,1687649408703,113
East HertfordshireBishop's Stortford South6,9363,6781,03527705805,048
East HertfordshireGreat Amwell2,2601,1953353907601,645
East HertfordshireHertford Bengeo5,7552,6061,225227013104,189
East HertfordshireHertford Castle6,3932,6201,668203016104,652
East HertfordshireHertford Heath2,5311,11755312404901,843
East HertfordshireHertford Kingsmead4,2171,736942271012003,069
East HertfordshireHertford Sele4,2871,6011,257134012703,119
East HertfordshireHunsdon2,12795841316401201,547
East HertfordshireMuch Hadham2,2161,1004094106301,613
East HertfordshireSawbridgeworth6,5383,2011,132203022204,758
East HertfordshireStanstead Abbots2,3721,12432020008201,726
East HertfordshireWare Chadwell2,3401,0954866106201,704
East HertfordshireWare Christchurch3,9491,65688425008402,874
East HertfordshireWare St Mary's4,0661,76988124606402,960
East HertfordshireWare Trinity4,1601,58992043108703,027
 Total78,90736,18517,1474,84601,814059,993

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Hertford and Stortford

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Hertford and Stortford.

Hertford and StortfordPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
East HertfordshireBishop's Stortford All Saints6,1492,0821,264892106110214,475
East HertfordshireBishop's Stortford Central7,4432,7061,831580128146255,416
East HertfordshireBishop's Stortford Meads4,4141,69487840976141153,213
East HertfordshireBishop's Stortford Silverleys4,2772,0527769474103143,113
East HertfordshireBishop's Stortford South6,9363,4891,05527711984235,047
East HertfordshireGreat Amwell2,2601,13334139398581,645
East HertfordshireHertford Bengeo5,7552,4491,24122799153194,188
East HertfordshireHertford Castle6,3932,4461,686203110185224,652
East HertfordshireHertford Heath2,5311,048560124445991,844
East HertfordshireHertford Kingsmead4,2171,62195427173136143,069
East HertfordshireHertford Sele4,2871,4841,26913474143153,119
East HertfordshireHunsdon2,127900419164372071,547
East HertfordshireMuch Hadham2,2161,04041541387181,613
East HertfordshireSawbridgeworth6,5383,0231,150203113247224,758
East HertfordshireStanstead Abbots2,3721,059327200419181,726
East HertfordshireWare Chadwell2,3401,03149361407181,704
East HertfordshireWare Christchurch3,9491,5488952506899132,873
East HertfordshireWare St Mary's4,0661,6588922467079142,959
East HertfordshireWare Trinity4,1601,47693243172103143,028
 Total78,90733,93917,3784,8461,4212,12627959,989

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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