Hertfordshire North East: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Hertfordshire North East: Overview

 Prediction: CON hold 

MP at 2017: Oliver Heald  (CON)
County/Area: Hertfordshire (Anglia)
Electorate: 75,967
Turnout: 73.2%
2017
Votes
2017
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON32,58758.6%55.6%
LAB15,75228.3%27.3%
LIB4,2767.7%7.7%
Green2,9655.3%6.4%
UKIP00.0%2.9%
CON Majority16,83530.3%Pred Maj 28.3%
Chance of
winning
CON
89%
LAB
11%
LIB
0%
Green
0%
UKIP
0%

Hertfordshire North East : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Hertfordshire North East constituency, the 'Anglia' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatAngliaAll GB
Party WinnerCONCONCON
Economic Position9° Right8° Right
National Position6° Nat10° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %50%57%52%
British Identity28%27%29%
Good Health49%47%48%
UK Born92%89%88%
Good Education43%37%39%
Good Job58%53%51%
High SEC60%53%51%
Average Age50.549.448.5
ABC1 Class61%55%53%

Hertfordshire North East ranks #401 for "Leave", #123 for "Right" and #236 for "National" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Hertfordshire North East: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Hertfordshire North East: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Hertfordshire North East

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Hertfordshire North East at the general election of 2017. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Hertfordshire North East. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results. The final block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

Hertfordshire North EastActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
East HertfordshireBraughing20151,081246002010
East HertfordshireBuntingford20153,27989308244190
East HertfordshireHertford Rural North20151,023146001480
East HertfordshireHertford Rural South201595617312400274
East HertfordshireLittle Hadham20159970003570
East HertfordshireMundens and Cottered20151,0532860000
East HertfordshirePuckeridge2015940277001750
East HertfordshireThundridge and Standon20151,1953370000
East HertfordshireWalkern20151,1783420000
East HertfordshireWatton-at-Stone201593115702061080
North HertfordshireArbury20151,06617419102140
North HertfordshireBaldock East2012475863920540
North HertfordshireBaldock Town20152,08176805334020
North HertfordshireErmine20151,1460003760
North HertfordshireLetchworth East201438759403011680
North HertfordshireLetchworth Grange20151,5471,2702244742980
North HertfordshireLetchworth South East20151,7171,19305352700
North HertfordshireLetchworth South West20152,1287744584315570
North HertfordshireLetchworth Wilbury201449762402251220
North HertfordshireRoyston Heath20151,5604994113702160
North HertfordshireRoyston Meridian20151,92444238102850
North HertfordshireRoyston Palace20151,1556342364611770
North HertfordshireWeston and Sandon2015427075101240

Hertfordshire North EastTurnout-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
East HertfordshireBraughing1,9781,0522390019601,487
East HertfordshireBuntingford4,1771,901518047824303,140
East HertfordshireHertford Rural North1,7771,0371480015001,335
East HertfordshireHertford Rural South1,970927168120002661,481
East HertfordshireLittle Hadham1,9201,06300038101,444
East HertfordshireMundens and Cottered1,9301,14131000001,451
East HertfordshirePuckeridge2,0541,0433070019401,544
East HertfordshireThundridge and Standon2,3921,40239500001,797
East HertfordshireWalkern2,1451,25036300001,613
East HertfordshireWatton-at-Stone1,808902152020010501,359
North HertfordshireArbury2,1141,030168184020701,589
North HertfordshireBaldock East2,23979414465509001,683
North HertfordshireBaldock Town5,7142,362872060545604,295
North HertfordshireErmine2,0211,14400037501,519
North HertfordshireLetchworth East4,2858601,319066937303,221
North HertfordshireLetchworth Grange5,6631,7271,41825052933304,257
North HertfordshireLetchworth South East5,6691,9691,368061431004,261
North HertfordshireLetchworth South West6,0992,24481648345458704,584
North HertfordshireLetchworth Wilbury4,1071,0451,312047325703,087
North HertfordshireRoyston Heath4,0491,55449740936821503,043
North HertfordshireRoyston Meridian4,1751,991457394029503,137
North HertfordshireRoyston Palace4,0411,31772326952620203,037
North HertfordshireWeston and Sandon1,6183990701011601,216
 Total73,94530,15411,6943,4654,9165,08526655,580

The turnout-adjusted results are now combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

Hertfordshire North EastEst. 2017 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
East HertfordshireBraughing2,0321,04327271010101,487
East HertfordshireBuntingford4,2912,117745121015603,139
East HertfordshireHertford Rural North1,8261,0092154406801,336
East HertfordshireHertford Rural South2,0241,03231810702501,482
East HertfordshireLittle Hadham1,9731,07619337013801,444
East HertfordshireMundens and Cottered1,9831,1482462802901,451
East HertfordshirePuckeridge2,1101,0723087209101,543
East HertfordshireThundridge and Standon2,4571,3433556803201,798
East HertfordshireWalkern2,2041,1683742604501,613
East HertfordshireWatton-at-Stone1,8579123085808001,358
North HertfordshireArbury2,1721,071228159013101,589
North HertfordshireBaldock East2,30085431844206901,683
North HertfordshireBaldock Town5,8702,4601,332246025704,295
North HertfordshireErmine2,0761,07822160016101,520
North HertfordshireLetchworth East4,4021,2901,542169021903,220
North HertfordshireLetchworth Grange5,8182,0181,688345020504,256
North HertfordshireLetchworth South East5,8242,2391,658179018604,262
North HertfordshireLetchworth South West6,2662,6021,210466030604,584
North HertfordshireLetchworth Wilbury4,2191,2871,54199015903,086
North HertfordshireRoyston Heath4,1601,713780400015003,043
North HertfordshireRoyston Meridian4,2891,937675373015303,138
North HertfordshireRoyston Palace4,1511,5041,076320013803,038
North HertfordshireWeston and Sandon1,66261514738706601,215
 Total73,94532,58815,7504,27702,965055,580

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Hertfordshire North East

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Hertfordshire North East.

Hertfordshire North EastPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
East HertfordshireBraughing2,032998258724211701,487
East HertfordshireBuntingford4,2912,0227121239119103,139
East HertfordshireHertford Rural North1,82696920445378201,337
East HertfordshireHertford Rural South2,024987302108434201,482
East HertfordshireLittle Hadham1,9731,032183383815301,444
East HertfordshireMundens and Cottered1,9831,10423329414501,452
East HertfordshirePuckeridge2,1101,025292734510801,543
East HertfordshireThundridge and Standon2,4571,28933669525201,798
East HertfordshireWalkern2,2041,11935727476301,613
East HertfordshireWatton-at-Stone1,85787129459399501,358
North HertfordshireArbury2,1721,0232161604314801,590
North HertfordshireBaldock East2,300803301443488801,683
North HertfordshireBaldock Town5,8702,3301,28624812530504,294
North HertfordshireErmine2,0761,032209614117701,520
North HertfordshireLetchworth East4,4021,1931,5081719425503,221
North HertfordshireLetchworth Grange5,8181,8891,64334712425304,256
North HertfordshireLetchworth South East5,8242,1101,61318112423404,262
North HertfordshireLetchworth South West6,2662,4631,16146813335804,583
North HertfordshireLetchworth Wilbury4,2191,1941,5081019019403,087
North HertfordshireRoyston Heath4,1601,6217484028818403,043
North HertfordshireRoyston Meridian4,2891,8426423759118803,138
North HertfordshireRoyston Palace4,1511,4121,0443228817203,038
North HertfordshireWeston and Sandon1,662578139388327801,215
 Total73,94530,90615,1894,3101,5963,582055,583

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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