Hornsey and Wood Green: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Hornsey and Wood Green: Overview

 Prediction: LAB hold 

MP at 2015: Catherine West  (LAB)
County/Area: Haringey (North London)
Electorate: 79,241
Turnout: 72.9%
2015
Votes
2015
Share
Predicted
Votes
LAB29,41750.9%53.9%
LIB18,35931.8%29.2%
CON5,3479.3%12.6%
Green3,1465.4%3.2%
UKIP1,2712.2%0.2%
OTH2450.4%0.9%
LAB Majority11,05819.1%Pred Maj 24.7%
Chance of
winning
LAB
89%
LIB
8%
CON
3%
Green
0%
UKIP
0%
OTH
0%

Hornsey and Wood Green : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Hornsey and Wood Green constituency, the 'North London' region and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatRegionAll GB
Party WinnerLABLABCON
Economic Position5° Left8° Right
National Position50° Int30° Int1° Int
EU Leave %19%39%52%
British Identity41%40%29%
Good Health53%50%48%
UK Born63%60%88%
Good Education61%47%39%
Good Job72%60%51%
High SEC64%53%51%
Average Age43.043.548.5
ABC1 Class72%60%53%

Hornsey and Wood Green ranks #648 for "Leave", #448 for "Right" and #650 for "National" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Hornsey and Wood Green: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Hornsey and Wood Green: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Hornsey and Wood Green

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Hornsey and Wood Green at the general election of 2015. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2015, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Hornsey and Wood Green. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results. The final block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

Hornsey and Wood GreenActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
HaringeyAlexandra20141,3574,0873,73903,0120
HaringeyBounds Green20146555,4602,3962091,2530
HaringeyCrouch End20141,2784,1363,5422142,218647
HaringeyFortis Green20141,4223,6453,9151911,716293
HaringeyHighgate20142,6032,8233,74001,3670
HaringeyHornsey20146395,6753,6612101,5470
HaringeyMuswell Hill20141,1153,9374,35201,8770
HaringeyNoel Park20145865,4861,4202201,144128
HaringeyStroud Green20146925,0093,77902,235149
HaringeyWoodside20147225,8301,1722591,002161

Hornsey and Wood GreenTurnout-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2015
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
HaringeyAlexandra7,4636061,8241,66901,34405,443
HaringeyBounds Green8,6614153,4581,51713279406,316
HaringeyCrouch End7,9216131,9851,7001031,0653115,777
HaringeyFortis Green7,9477371,8892,029998891525,795
HaringeyHighgate7,2601,3081,4191,880068705,294
HaringeyHornsey7,8903132,7831,79510375905,753
HaringeyMuswell Hill6,8294921,7381,921082904,980
HaringeyNoel Park8,7574173,8991,009156813916,385
HaringeyStroud Green7,3813142,2721,71401,014685,382
HaringeyWoodside9,1335264,2458531897301176,660
 Total79,2425,74125,51216,0877828,92473957,785

The turnout-adjusted results are now combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

Hornsey and Wood GreenEst. 2015 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2015
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
HaringeyAlexandra7,4635822,4611,8794946565,442
HaringeyBounds Green8,6614863,6401,696246220286,316
HaringeyCrouch End7,9215232,5002,093147448655,776
HaringeyFortis Green7,9478222,4172,140127262275,795
HaringeyHighgate7,2601,1681,8622,0023921945,294
HaringeyHornsey7,8902823,1811,86295309245,753
HaringeyMuswell Hill6,8295272,0731,9546535284,979
HaringeyNoel Park8,7573034,1631,466220210236,385
HaringeyStroud Green7,3811992,7781,89040449265,382
HaringeyWoodside9,1334544,3411,377241211346,658
 Total79,2425,34629,41618,3591,2693,14524557,785

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Hornsey and Wood Green

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Hornsey and Wood Green.

Hornsey and Wood GreenPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2015
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
HaringeyAlexandra7,4637692,6261,7384274305,441
HaringeyBounds Green8,6617243,8501,53322130586,317
HaringeyCrouch End7,9217552,7061,94413264945,776
HaringeyFortis Green7,9471,0082,5811,99011155505,795
HaringeyHighgate7,2601,2981,9771,8653129205,292
HaringeyHornsey7,8904623,3401,7138182475,752
HaringeyMuswell Hill6,8296922,2191,8256208294,979
HaringeyNoel Park8,7575284,3621,30119124516,385
HaringeyStroud Green7,3813782,9361,7513265495,382
HaringeyWoodside9,1336924,5521,20521125646,659
 Total79,2427,30631,14916,8651101,85649257,778

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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