Huntingdon: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Huntingdon: Overview

 Prediction: CON hold 

MP at 2017: Jonathan Djanogly  (CON)
County/Area: Cambridgeshire (Anglia)
Electorate: 84,320
Turnout: 70.8%
2017
Votes
2017
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON32,91555.1%51.4%
LAB18,44030.9%31.3%
LIB5,0908.5%8.5%
UKIP2,1803.7%6.0%
Green1,0951.8%2.3%
OTH00.0%0.5%
CON Majority14,47524.2%Pred Maj 20.1%
Chance of
winning
CON
82%
LAB
18%
LIB
0%
UKIP
0%
Green
0%
OTH
0%

Huntingdon : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Huntingdon constituency, the 'Anglia' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatAngliaAll GB
Party WinnerCONCONCON
Economic Position11° Right8° Right
National Position8° Nat10° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %51%57%52%
British Identity27%27%29%
Good Health49%47%48%
UK Born89%89%88%
Good Education41%37%39%
Good Job55%53%51%
High SEC58%53%51%
Average Age48.749.448.5
ABC1 Class59%55%53%

Huntingdon ranks #381 for "Leave", #78 for "Right" and #169 for "National" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Huntingdon: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Huntingdon: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Huntingdon

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Huntingdon at the general election of 2017. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Huntingdon. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results. The final block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

HuntingdonActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
HuntingdonshireAlconbury and The Stukeleys20144478131133200
HuntingdonshireBrampton20151,2402821,39246800
HuntingdonshireBuckden20142535401690674
HuntingdonshireEllington201596411161822100
HuntingdonshireFenstanton201587130521527500
HuntingdonshireGodmanchester201447018390140400
HuntingdonshireGransden and The Offords20152,3324360000
HuntingdonshireHuntingdon East20151,5955661,2641,065052
HuntingdonshireHuntingdon North201552057523653600
HuntingdonshireHuntingdon West20151,78856930349500
HuntingdonshireKimbolton and Staughton20151,477229025100
HuntingdonshireLittle Paxton2011898149159000
HuntingdonshireSt Ives East201462122615658200
HuntingdonshireSt Ives South201486634024658500
HuntingdonshireSt Ives West2012294621801290201
HuntingdonshireSt Neots Eaton Ford20152,459637063500
HuntingdonshireSt Neots Eaton Socon20151,18827200154989
HuntingdonshireSt Neots Eynesbury20151,8527180872312684
HuntingdonshireSt Neots Priory Park20151,940789464001,016
HuntingdonshireThe Hemingfords20141,303376055000

HuntingdonTurnout-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
HuntingdonshireAlconbury and The Stukeleys2,468683124475507001,789
HuntingdonshireBrampton5,3421,4193231,593536003,871
HuntingdonshireBuckden2,42138682025801,0281,754
HuntingdonshireEllington31010002
HuntingdonshireFenstanton2,277863302213272001,650
HuntingdonshireGodmanchester4,9208563331,641736003,566
HuntingdonshireGransden and The Offords3,4102,08238900002,471
HuntingdonshireHuntingdon East7,0151,7856341,4151,1920585,084
HuntingdonshireHuntingdon North4,9129911,0964501,022003,559
HuntingdonshireHuntingdon West5,4812,251716381623003,971
HuntingdonshireKimbolton and Staughton2,4501,3402080228001,776
HuntingdonshireLittle Paxton2,5141,3572252400001,822
HuntingdonshireSt Ives East5,1351,4585313661,366003,721
HuntingdonshireSt Ives South4,8891,5065914281,018003,543
HuntingdonshireSt Ives West2,09551510931622603521,518
HuntingdonshireSt Neots Eaton Ford4,9982,3876180616003,621
HuntingdonshireSt Neots Eaton Socon4,1841,384317001791,1523,032
HuntingdonshireSt Neots Eynesbury7,6832,32490101,0943918585,568
HuntingdonshireSt Neots Priory Park5,7571,923782460001,0074,172
HuntingdonshireThe Hemingfords4,4501,8855440796003,225
 Total82,40427,3968,8257,97910,4905704,45559,715

The turnout-adjusted results are now combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

HuntingdonEst. 2017 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
HuntingdonshireAlconbury and The Stukeleys2,525966470223992901,787
HuntingdonshireBrampton5,4662,0619127371164603,872
HuntingdonshireBuckden2,47799262757374101,754
HuntingdonshireEllington31010002
HuntingdonshireFenstanton2,330976460144413001,651
HuntingdonshireGodmanchester5,0341,5411,1366941296603,566
HuntingdonshireGransden and The Offords3,4891,916404119171502,471
HuntingdonshireHuntingdon East7,1782,3111,8856301946505,085
HuntingdonshireHuntingdon North5,0261,3131,7472432292703,559
HuntingdonshireHuntingdon West5,6082,2211,337286933503,972
HuntingdonshireKimbolton and Staughton2,5071,35733140321601,776
HuntingdonshireLittle Paxton2,5721,269339127691801,822
HuntingdonshireSt Ives East5,2541,8971,2603111876603,721
HuntingdonshireSt Ives South5,0031,9051,1432981465103,543
HuntingdonshireSt Ives West2,144775484182572001,518
HuntingdonshireSt Neots Eaton Ford5,1142,4338771501313103,622
HuntingdonshireSt Neots Eaton Socon4,2811,7789221129912103,032
HuntingdonshireSt Neots Eynesbury7,8622,7971,92526829428405,568
HuntingdonshireSt Neots Priory Park5,8912,3181,3602991158004,172
HuntingdonshireThe Hemingfords4,5532,089818169945403,224
 Total82,40432,91618,4375,0902,1791,095059,715

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Huntingdon

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Huntingdon.

HuntingdonPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
HuntingdonshireAlconbury and The Stukeleys2,5258994772231413881,786
HuntingdonshireBrampton5,4661,91692773720866183,872
HuntingdonshireBuckden2,47792663457785081,753
HuntingdonshireEllington31010002
HuntingdonshireFenstanton2,330914466144803981,651
HuntingdonshireGodmanchester5,0341,4081,15069421384173,566
HuntingdonshireGransden and The Offords3,4891,8244141197528112,471
HuntingdonshireHuntingdon East7,1782,1211,90563031491245,085
HuntingdonshireHuntingdon North5,0261,1801,76124331345173,559
HuntingdonshireHuntingdon West5,6082,0721,35228618755183,970
HuntingdonshireKimbolton and Staughton2,5071,29133840742581,776
HuntingdonshireLittle Paxton2,5721,2013461271122781,821
HuntingdonshireSt Ives East5,2541,7581,27431127585173,720
HuntingdonshireSt Ives South5,0031,7721,15729823069163,542
HuntingdonshireSt Ives West2,144718490182932871,518
HuntingdonshireSt Neots Eaton Ford5,1142,29889115021750173,623
HuntingdonshireSt Neots Eaton Socon4,2811,665934112171137143,033
HuntingdonshireSt Neots Eynesbury7,8622,5891,947268426313265,569
HuntingdonshireSt Neots Priory Park5,8912,1621,376299214102194,172
HuntingdonshireThe Hemingfords4,5531,96883116917071153,224
 Total82,40430,68318,6705,0903,5911,40327659,713

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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