Isle of Wight: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Isle of Wight: Overview

 Prediction: CON hold 

MP at 2017: Bob Seely  (CON)
County/Area: Hampshire (South East)
Electorate: 110,697
Turnout: 67.3%
2017
Votes
2017
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON38,19051.3%48.2%
LAB17,12123.0%22.0%
Green12,91517.3%18.4%
LIB2,7403.7%3.7%
UKIP1,9212.6%5.5%
MIN1,5922.1%2.1%
CON Majority21,06928.3%Pred Maj 26.2%
Chance of
winning
CON
85%
LAB
12%
Green
2%
LIB
1%
UKIP
0%
MIN
0%

Isle of Wight : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Isle of Wight constituency, the 'South East' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatSouth EastAll GB
Party WinnerCONCONCON
Economic Position2° Left4° Right
National Position9° Nat3° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %62%52%52%
British Identity26%29%29%
Good Health41%49%48%
UK Born95%88%88%
Good Education35%43%39%
Good Job46%56%51%
High SEC48%57%51%
Average Age53.249.248.5
ABC1 Class48%60%53%

Isle of Wight ranks #121 for "Leave", #399 for "Right" and #161 for "National" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Isle of Wight: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Isle of Wight: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Isle of Wight

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Isle of Wight at the general election of 2017. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Isle of Wight. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results. The final block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

Isle of WightActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Isle of WightArreton and Newchurch2013458002990529
Isle of WightBinstead and Fishbourne20133156102250559
Isle of WightBrading, St Helens and Bembridge20131,339131074102,429
Isle of WightCarisbrooke201343172000380
Isle of WightCentral Wight2013700003422970
Isle of WightChale, Niton and Whitwell2013658168025600
Isle of WightCowes Medina201315897000609
Isle of WightCowes North20134160034000
Isle of WightCowes South and Northwood20135180000502
Isle of WightCowes West and Gurnard201324700001,143
Isle of WightEast Cowes201336401373230367
Isle of WightFreshwater North20134020031300
Isle of WightFreshwater South2013320001790480
Isle of WightGodshill and Wroxall20131124501910773
Isle of WightHavenstreet, Ashey and Haylands201328701291940249
Isle of WightLake North2013271355023400
Isle of WightLake South2013381003310277
Isle of WightNettlestone and Seaview2013389083014900
Isle of WightNewport Central201337514001330138
Isle of WightNewport East2013126443016100
Isle of WightNewport North201335617301680126
Isle of WightNewport South20133360000365
Isle of WightNewport West2013295001790184
Isle of WightParkhurst20132480229153044
Isle of WightRyde East2013249034800377
Isle of WightRyde North East201332414101370214
Isle of WightRyde North West2013295001650390
Isle of WightRyde South201310916801610307
Isle of WightRyde West2013151757500533
Isle of WightSandown North201319512201610429
Isle of WightSandown South20133896301820174
Isle of WightShanklin Central201343281000528
Isle of WightShanklin South20136190000629
Isle of WightTotland2013303002540420
Isle of WightVentnor East201316810604120336
Isle of WightVentnor West201337616102080395
Isle of WightWest Wight20134947402710223
Isle of WightWhippingham and Osborne20133980000646
Isle of WightWootton Bridge20134080100608098

Isle of WightTurnout-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
Isle of WightArreton and Newchurch2,8636980045608061,960
Isle of WightBinstead and Fishbourne2,52246991033508321,727
Isle of WightBrading, St Helens and Bembridge5,5001,086106060101,9713,764
Isle of WightCarisbrooke2,5798621440007601,766
Isle of WightCentral Wight2,6409450046240101,808
Isle of WightChale, Niton and Whitwell2,1629002300350001,480
Isle of WightCowes Medina3,2554072500001,5712,228
Isle of WightCowes North2,42491300746001,659
Isle of WightCowes South and Northwood2,9881,03900001,0072,046
Isle of WightCowes West and Gurnard2,75733500001,5521,887
Isle of WightEast Cowes3,074643024257106482,104
Isle of WightFreshwater North2,01777600604001,380
Isle of WightFreshwater South2,2485030028107541,538
Isle of WightGodshill and Wroxall2,55117470029801,2041,746
Isle of WightHavenstreet, Ashey and Haylands2,771634028542805501,897
Isle of WightLake North2,9416348310548002,013
Isle of WightLake South2,6777060061305131,832
Isle of WightNettlestone and Seaview2,0263940841151001,386
Isle of WightNewport Central3,0821,007376035703702,110
Isle of WightNewport East2,4992951,0380377001,710
Isle of WightNewport North2,581764371036102701,766
Isle of WightNewport South3,1051,01900001,1072,126
Isle of WightNewport West2,5747900047904931,762
Isle of WightParkhurst3,000756069846601342,054
Isle of WightRyde East2,8785040704007631,971
Isle of WightRyde North East2,692732318030904831,842
Isle of WightRyde North West2,8846850038309061,974
Isle of WightRyde South3,495350540051709862,393
Isle of WightRyde West3,073381189189001,3442,103
Isle of WightSandown North2,469363227030007991,689
Isle of WightSandown South3,2241,063172049704752,207
Isle of WightShanklin Central2,7917931490009691,911
Isle of WightShanklin South2,84796700009821,949
Isle of WightTotland2,2844850040606721,563
Isle of WightVentnor East2,425273172066905461,660
Isle of WightVentnor West2,317523224028905501,586
Isle of WightWest Wight2,626836125045903771,797
Isle of WightWhippingham and Osborne3,20983700001,3592,196
Isle of WightWootton Bridge2,751633015594301521,883
 Total108,80126,1745,6233,11413,25640125,90574,473

The turnout-adjusted results are now combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

Isle of WightEst. 2017 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
Isle of WightArreton and Newchurch2,9131,189298776346431,959
Isle of WightBinstead and Fishbourne2,5669143554251324411,727
Isle of WightBrading, St Helens and Bembridge5,5961,955820371047401083,764
Isle of WightCarisbrooke2,624993439197273361,767
Isle of WightCentral Wight2,6861,1041654641435171,808
Isle of WightChale, Niton and Whitwell2,2009392621448196211,480
Isle of WightCowes Medina3,3129616545311479712,229
Isle of WightCowes North2,4661,067234958280121,660
Isle of WightCowes South and Northwood3,0401,316312405323492,045
Isle of WightCowes West and Gurnard2,8051,016380267395631,887
Isle of WightEast Cowes3,1281,01149813259363422,105
Isle of WightFreshwater North2,0528572013471197201,380
Isle of WightFreshwater South2,2877972765754320341,538
Isle of WightGodshill and Wroxall2,595740527935376601,747
Isle of WightHavenstreet, Ashey and Haylands2,81995437016539326421,896
Isle of WightLake North2,99290770634105236262,014
Isle of WightLake South2,7249494262191310351,832
Isle of WightNettlestone and Seaview2,06167014138713157181,386
Isle of WightNewport Central3,1361,0186476448302322,111
Isle of WightNewport East2,5434729513543191201,712
Isle of WightNewport North2,6268765244055244271,766
Isle of WightNewport South3,1591,121532516364542,128
Isle of WightNewport West2,6199743912542304261,762
Isle of WightParkhurst3,05290941733091283252,055
Isle of WightRyde East2,92885936235423320521,970
Isle of WightRyde North East2,7398755414831313341,842
Isle of WightRyde North West2,9341,1013673032398461,974
Isle of WightRyde South3,55684885862105465562,394
Isle of WightRyde West3,12785759913333406742,102
Isle of WightSandown North2,5127174714086337391,690
Isle of WightSandown South3,2801,2514921962344382,206
Isle of WightShanklin Central2,8401,1043941420331481,911
Isle of WightShanklin South2,8971,2132994214324581,950
Isle of WightTotland2,3248492546155305381,562
Isle of WightVentnor East2,4677124694452352311,660
Isle of WightVentnor West2,3577964132146267431,586
Isle of WightWest Wight2,6721,137305637281311,797
Isle of WightWhippingham and Osborne3,2651,1355062757408632,196
Isle of WightWootton Bridge2,7991,027266161110299191,882
 Total108,80138,19017,1222,7391,92312,9141,59274,473

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Isle of Wight

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Isle of Wight.

Isle of WightPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
Isle of WightArreton and Newchurch2,9131,1292828131366431,959
Isle of WightBinstead and Fishbourne2,56686133643103343411,727
Isle of WightBrading, St Helens and Bembridge5,5961,840779392177821083,765
Isle of WightCarisbrooke2,6249394202060293361,768
Isle of WightCentral Wight2,6861,0491564787452171,808
Isle of WightChale, Niton and Whitwell2,2008942481591212211,481
Isle of WightCowes Medina3,3128936295478504712,229
Isle of WightCowes North2,4661,01622110104297121,660
Isle of WightCowes South and Northwood3,0401,2532954162344492,044
Isle of WightCowes West and Gurnard2,8059583592763416631,886
Isle of WightEast Cowes3,128947475133122386422,105
Isle of WightFreshwater North2,05281519035109211201,380
Isle of WightFreshwater South2,2877502615899337341,539
Isle of WightGodshill and Wroxall2,5956875081087395601,747
Isle of WightHavenstreet, Ashey and Haylands2,81989635016695347421,896
Isle of WightLake North2,99284568435165258262,013
Isle of WightLake South2,72489340622146330351,832
Isle of WightNettlestone and Seaview2,06162813338849170181,386
Isle of WightNewport Central3,13695362465111326322,111
Isle of WightNewport East2,5434209323694210201,712
Isle of WightNewport North2,62682250541108264271,767
Isle of WightNewport South3,1591,0565095270388542,129
Isle of WightNewport West2,6199203722695324261,763
Isle of WightParkhurst3,052846394331152306252,054
Isle of WightRyde East2,92879934235581341521,970
Isle of WightRyde North East2,7398195214986334341,843
Isle of WightRyde North West2,9341,0413473190420461,975
Isle of WightRyde South3,55677583263177492562,395
Isle of WightRyde West3,12779357613496429742,102
Isle of WightSandown North2,51266545241137356391,690
Isle of WightSandown South3,2801,18446820128369382,207
Isle of WightShanklin Central2,8401,0463731577352481,911
Isle of WightShanklin South2,8971,1532834369344581,950
Isle of WightTotland2,3248012406299322381,562
Isle of WightVentnor East2,46766145145102370311,660
Isle of WightVentnor West2,3577473962293285431,586
Isle of WightWest Wight2,6721,082288789300311,797
Isle of WightWhippingham and Osborne3,2651,06848228123432632,196
Isle of WightWootton Bridge2,799969251162162318191,881
 Total108,80135,91316,3702,7794,10713,7251,59274,486

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
Powered by TigerLib (11-Sep-2017 15:41)