Kenilworth and Southam: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Kenilworth and Southam: Overview

 Prediction: CON hold 

MP at 2017: Jeremy Wright  (CON)
County/Area: Warwickshire (West Midlands)
Electorate: 66,323
Turnout: 77.4%
2017
Votes
2017
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON31,20760.8%57.0%
LAB13,12125.6%26.0%
LIB4,9219.6%9.6%
Green1,1332.2%2.7%
UKIP9291.8%4.2%
OTH00.0%0.5%
CON Majority18,08635.2%Pred Maj 31.1%
Chance of
winning
CON
90%
LAB
10%
LIB
0%
Green
0%
UKIP
0%
OTH
0%

Kenilworth and Southam : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Kenilworth and Southam constituency, the 'West Midlands' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatWest MidlandsAll GB
Party WinnerCONCONCON
Economic Position10° Right2° Right
National Position3° Nat9° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %46%59%52%
British Identity29%28%29%
Good Health50%45%48%
UK Born93%89%88%
Good Education51%35%39%
Good Job63%48%51%
High SEC66%46%51%
Average Age51.948.748.5
ABC1 Class69%49%53%

Kenilworth and Southam ranks #475 for "Leave", #92 for "Right" and #294 for "National" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Kenilworth and Southam: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Kenilworth and Southam: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Kenilworth and Southam

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Kenilworth and Southam at the general election of 2017. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Kenilworth and Southam. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results. The final block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

Kenilworth and SouthamActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
RugbyDunsmore20152,001535002481,669
RugbyLeam Valley20151,2460003380
Stratford On AvonBishop's Itchington20151,34128717501960
Stratford On AvonHarbury201593120769601470
Stratford On AvonKineton20151,2451731802811370
Stratford On AvonLong Itchington and Stockton20151,455415280000
Stratford On AvonNapton and Fenny Compton20151,12323928132900
Stratford On AvonRed Horse20151,31727320232000
Stratford On AvonSnitterfield20151,48819625102110
Stratford On AvonSoutham North201585239716025700
Stratford On AvonSoutham South20151,051331802461220
Stratford On AvonWellesbourne East20151,1381776412281280
Stratford On AvonWellesbourne West20151,08217844101130
WarwickAbbey20155,3479433,3976141,821156
WarwickArden20155,0380009940
WarwickManor20152,8811,3522,17406270
WarwickMilverton20151,9681,3372,53806590
WarwickPark Hill20157,5992,4371,90101,5490
WarwickRadford Semele20151,019378002200
WarwickSt John's20157,4042,1632,73801,4530
WarwickStoneleigh and Cubbington20152,567990006921,039

Kenilworth and SouthamTurnout-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
RugbyDunsmore5,9052,087558002591,7414,645
RugbyLeam Valley1,9471,20400032701,531
Stratford On AvonBishop's Itchington3,0881,629349213023802,429
Stratford On AvonHarbury2,704999222747015802,126
Stratford On AvonKineton2,5591,24317318028113702,014
Stratford On AvonLong Itchington and Stockton2,9851,5894533060002,348
Stratford On AvonNapton and Fenny Compton2,5771,154246289338002,027
Stratford On AvonRed Horse1,2706231299615100999
Stratford On AvonSnitterfield1371101010
Stratford On AvonSoutham North2,6501,066497200321002,084
Stratford On AvonSoutham South2,6701,2063809228214002,100
Stratford On AvonWellesbourne East3,0761,19118567123913402,420
Stratford On AvonWellesbourne West2,4131,132186461011801,897
WarwickAbbey5,4281,8593281,181213633544,268
WarwickArden4,4522,92400057703,501
WarwickManor1,34643420332709401,058
WarwickMilverton2415739740190189
WarwickPark Hill6,8183,021969756061605,362
WarwickRadford Semele2,1361,0593930022901,681
WarwickSt John's6,8432,8968461,071056805,381
WarwickStoneleigh and Cubbington4,1221,574607004246373,242
 Total65,24328,9546,7646,6651,8254,6722,43251,312

The turnout-adjusted results are now combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

Kenilworth and SouthamEst. 2017 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
RugbyDunsmore6,0032,8341,581129435704,644
RugbyLeam Valley1,9791,1692583726601,532
Stratford On AvonBishop's Itchington3,1391,576589151516202,429
Stratford On AvonHarbury2,7491,259412382393302,125
Stratford On AvonKineton2,6011,3583721221243702,013
Stratford On AvonLong Itchington and Stockton3,0341,519573201272802,348
Stratford On AvonNapton and Fenny Compton2,6201,315427154953502,026
Stratford On AvonRed Horse1,2916572018539160998
Stratford On AvonSnitterfield1372100010
Stratford On AvonSoutham North2,6941,1365692001453402,084
Stratford On AvonSoutham South2,7141,2965371271073302,100
Stratford On AvonWellesbourne East3,1271,4015313451053702,419
Stratford On AvonWellesbourne West2,4531,156433266232001,898
WarwickAbbey5,5182,1761,1417145917804,268
WarwickArden4,5262,7056149728303,501
WarwickManor1,36852432218312801,058
WarwickMilverton245816041080190
WarwickPark Hill6,9313,1141,447660413705,362
WarwickRadford Semele2,1711,05947096154201,682
WarwickSt John's6,9562,9301,4988072212605,383
WarwickStoneleigh and Cubbington4,1901,9371,083122277403,243
 Total65,24331,20913,1204,9209301,134051,312

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Kenilworth and Southam

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Kenilworth and Southam.

Kenilworth and SouthamPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
RugbyDunsmore6,0032,6581,59912915481224,643
RugbyLeam Valley1,9791,11126437397471,532
Stratford On AvonBishop's Itchington3,1391,48459915110975112,429
Stratford On AvonHarbury2,7491,1794203829044102,125
Stratford On AvonKineton2,6011,2823801221724892,013
Stratford On AvonLong Itchington and Stockton3,0341,4305822018340112,347
Stratford On AvonNapton and Fenny Compton2,6201,23843515414346102,026
Stratford On AvonRed Horse1,2916192058563215998
Stratford On AvonSnitterfield1372100010
Stratford On AvonSoutham North2,6941,05757720019545102,084
Stratford On AvonSoutham South2,7141,21654512715744102,099
Stratford On AvonWellesbourne East3,1271,30954134516350112,419
Stratford On AvonWellesbourne West2,4531,084440266683091,897
WarwickAbbey5,5182,0141,158714161200204,267
WarwickArden4,5262,5726289786101163,500
WarwickManor1,368484326183263451,058
WarwickMilverton245746141591191
WarwickPark Hill6,9312,9111,468660132165255,361
WarwickRadford Semele2,17199547796555181,682
WarwickSt John's6,9562,7261,519807151154255,382
WarwickStoneleigh and Cubbington4,1901,8141,09612210591153,243
 Total65,24329,26413,3224,9202,1571,40324051,306

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
Powered by TigerLib (11-Sep-2017 15:41)