Kensington: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Kensington: Overview

 Prediction: LAB hold 

MP at 2017: Emma Dent Coad  (LAB)
County/Area: Kensington and Chelsea (London)
Electorate: 60,594
Turnout: 63.8%
2017
Votes
2017
Share
Predicted
Votes
LAB16,33342.2%41.2%
CON16,31342.2%39.0%
LIB4,72412.2%12.3%
Green7672.0%3.4%
OTH5401.4%0.4%
UKIP00.0%3.8%
LAB Majority200.1%Pred Maj 2.2%
Chance of
winning
LAB
54%
CON
45%
LIB
1%
Green
0%
OTH
0%
UKIP
0%

Kensington : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Kensington constituency, the 'London' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatLondonAll GB
Party WinnerLABLABCON
Economic Position21° Right11° Right
National Position32° Int29° Int1° Int
EU Leave %31%40%52%
British Identity32%38%29%
Good Health57%50%48%
UK Born48%64%88%
Good Education62%48%39%
Good Job78%61%51%
High SEC66%55%51%
Average Age43.844.148.5
ABC1 Class77%62%53%

Kensington ranks #611 for "Leave", #19 for "Right" and #616 for "National" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Kensington: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Kensington: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Kensington

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Kensington at the general election of 2017. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Kensington. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results. The final block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

KensingtonActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Kensington and ChelseaAbingdon20143,68270434402360
Kensington and ChelseaBrompton and Hans Town20143,50366315000147
Kensington and ChelseaCampden20143,933704281000
Kensington and ChelseaColville20141,5022,3881,0890310455
Kensington and ChelseaCourtfield20143,393740446000
Kensington and ChelseaDalgarno20145861,79119625300
Kensington and ChelseaEarl's Court20142,7141,0041,69703270
Kensington and ChelseaGolborne20147363,5511820260117
Kensington and ChelseaHolland20142,965961452000
Kensington and ChelseaNorland20141,970636287000
Kensington and ChelseaNotting Dale20141,3914,1320000
Kensington and ChelseaPembridge20141,517515306000
Kensington and ChelseaQueen's Gate20143,233513369000
Kensington and ChelseaRedcliffe20143,48281137516800
Kensington and ChelseaSt Helen's20141,3061,323258000
Kensington and ChelseaStanley20143,9288480001,376

KensingtonTurnout-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
Kensington and ChelseaAbingdon5,0512,362452221015103,186
Kensington and ChelseaBrompton and Hans Town2,8671,4192696100601,809
Kensington and ChelseaCampden4,9682,5054481790003,132
Kensington and ChelseaColville4,9528171,29859201692473,123
Kensington and ChelseaCourtfield5,2142,4365313200003,287
Kensington and ChelseaDalgarno3,5774681,430156202002,256
Kensington and ChelseaEarl's Court5,2041,551574970018703,282
Kensington and ChelseaGolborne4,4264242,0451050150672,791
Kensington and ChelseaHolland4,7102,0126523070002,971
Kensington and ChelseaNorland3,2191,3824462010002,029
Kensington and ChelseaNotting Dale4,5827282,16200002,890
Kensington and ChelseaPembridge3,2851,3444562710002,071
Kensington and ChelseaQueen's Gate5,0632,5083982860003,192
Kensington and ChelseaRedcliffe2301042411500144
Kensington and ChelseaSt Helen's3,4259779901930002,160
Kensington and ChelseaStanley5612264900079354
 Total61,33421,26312,2243,87320765745338,677

The turnout-adjusted results are now combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

KensingtonEst. 2017 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
Kensington and ChelseaAbingdon4,9901,788897392086223,185
Kensington and ChelseaBrompton and Hans Town2,8321,130486138011431,808
Kensington and ChelseaCampden4,9081,925878292014233,132
Kensington and ChelseaColville4,8926821,60852801551493,122
Kensington and ChelseaCourtfield5,1511,998842380039303,289
Kensington and ChelseaDalgarno3,5343681,646203014242,255
Kensington and ChelseaEarl's Court5,1411,3849587700145253,282
Kensington and ChelseaGolborne4,3733292,128183088642,792
Kensington and ChelseaHolland4,6531,5011,071370012172,971
Kensington and ChelseaNorland3,180967771260016142,028
Kensington and ChelseaNotting Dale4,5274822,176177032232,890
Kensington and ChelseaPembridge3,245976683348047182,072
Kensington and ChelseaQueen's Gate5,0021,934802391040243,191
Kensington and ChelseaRedcliffe227823919031144
Kensington and ChelseaSt Helen's3,3845861,243252060192,160
Kensington and ChelseaStanley554181104210443353
 Total61,33416,31316,3324,724076653938,677

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Kensington

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Kensington.

KensingtonPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
Kensington and ChelseaAbingdon4,9901,68086439411212963,185
Kensington and ChelseaBrompton and Hans Town2,8321,0694671398042111,808
Kensington and ChelseaCampden4,9081,8198462941115763,133
Kensington and ChelseaColville4,8925761,576531178224383,123
Kensington and ChelseaCourtfield5,1511,8868083821208583,289
Kensington and ChelseaDalgarno3,5343061,623204744362,256
Kensington and ChelseaEarl's Court5,1411,27392477211719063,282
Kensington and ChelseaGolborne4,3732732,09918594124162,791
Kensington and ChelseaHolland4,6531,4001,0403721035242,971
Kensington and ChelseaNorland3,180898750261714442,028
Kensington and ChelseaNotting Dale4,5274002,146179926762,890
Kensington and ChelseaPembridge3,245906662349757652,073
Kensington and ChelseaQueen's Gate5,0021,8267693931138463,191
Kensington and ChelseaRedcliffe227773819550144
Kensington and ChelseaSt Helen's3,3845131,221253789052,160
Kensington and ChelseaStanley55416910022341711353
 Total61,33415,07115,9334,7491,4571,32913838,677

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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