Kettering: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Kettering: Overview

 Prediction: CON hold 

MP at 2017: Philip Hollobone  (CON)
County/Area: Northamptonshire (East Midlands)
Electorate: 71,523
Turnout: 69.1%
2017
Votes
2017
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON28,61657.9%54.2%
LAB18,05436.5%36.9%
LIB1,6183.3%3.3%
Green1,1162.3%2.8%
UKIP00.0%2.4%
OTH00.0%0.5%
CON Majority10,56221.4%Pred Maj 17.3%
Chance of
winning
CON
77%
LAB
23%
LIB
0%
Green
0%
UKIP
0%
OTH
0%

Kettering : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Kettering constituency, the 'East Midlands' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatEast MidlandsAll GB
Party WinnerCONCONCON
Economic Position9° Right3° Right
National Position13° Nat9° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %61%59%52%
British Identity25%27%29%
Good Health46%45%48%
UK Born92%91%88%
Good Education35%36%39%
Good Job48%48%51%
High SEC49%47%51%
Average Age49.049.148.5
ABC1 Class50%50%53%

Kettering ranks #132 for "Leave", #121 for "Right" and #75 for "National" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Kettering: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Kettering: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Kettering

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Kettering at the general election of 2017. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Kettering. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results. The final block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

KetteringActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
KetteringAll Saints20153,8823,13607146390
KetteringAvondale Grange20159881,40701,1861840
KetteringBarton20152,9791,27307912440
KetteringBrambleside20152,4691,0790537197114
KetteringBurton Latimer20153,0272,04701,31403,525
KetteringDesborough Loatland20152,6811,541076700
KetteringDesborough St Giles20152,5581,43906012980
KetteringIse Lodge20155,6892,46609964050
KetteringNorthfield201535350302051250
KetteringPipers Hill20152,0321,46306733230
KetteringQueen Eleanor and Buccleuch20156564620422690
KetteringRothwell20113,2342,702230000
KetteringSlade20153,7391,27706953440
KetteringSt Michael's and Wicksteed20153,7683,08108396090
KetteringSt Peter's20152,26876805635010
KetteringWelland20151,130351024500
KetteringWilliam Knibb20156771,69606993480

KetteringTurnout-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
KetteringAll Saints6,1442,0061,621036933004,326
KetteringAvondale Grange3,9787351,047088213702,801
KetteringBarton3,8121,513646040212402,685
KetteringBrambleside3,6771,4546360316116672,589
KetteringBurton Latimer5,5801,200811052101,3973,929
KetteringDesborough Loatland4,2781,6199310463003,013
KetteringDesborough St Giles3,7521,380777032416102,642
KetteringIse Lodge5,3292,234968039115903,752
KetteringNorthfield2,187458653026616201,539
KetteringPipers Hill3,9741,266912041920102,798
KetteringQueen Eleanor and Buccleuch1,89854538403515701,337
KetteringRothwell5,7642,1291,7791510004,059
KetteringSlade4,6072,003684037218403,243
KetteringSt Michael's and Wicksteed5,5481,7741,451039528703,907
KetteringSt Peter's3,7271,452492036032102,625
KetteringWelland1,9879162850199001,400
KetteringWilliam Knibb3,9125451,366056328002,754
 Total70,15423,22915,4431516,5932,5191,46449,399

The turnout-adjusted results are now combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

KetteringEst. 2017 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
KetteringAll Saints6,2642,2231,853103014804,327
KetteringAvondale Grange4,0561,2711,3898305902,802
KetteringBarton3,8861,7777828104502,685
KetteringBrambleside3,7491,6697958803702,589
KetteringBurton Latimer5,6892,3771,34018902303,929
KetteringDesborough Loatland4,3611,8931,0167303103,013
KetteringDesborough St Giles3,8251,6128747707802,641
KetteringIse Lodge5,4332,3771,14117405903,751
KetteringNorthfield2,2306427903707001,539
KetteringPipers Hill4,0521,4791,13212805902,798
KetteringQueen Eleanor and Buccleuch1,9358394244702701,337
KetteringRothwell5,8762,3331,54614303704,059
KetteringSlade4,6972,2788016809703,244
KetteringSt Michael's and Wicksteed5,6562,0201,665102011903,906
KetteringSt Peter's3,8001,73669211508202,625
KetteringWelland2,0261,0503112301601,400
KetteringWilliam Knibb3,9881,0391,50288012502,754
 Total70,15428,61518,0531,61901,112049,399

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Kettering

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Kettering.

KetteringPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
KetteringAll Saints6,2642,0621,870103102170204,327
KetteringAvondale Grange4,0561,1671,400836673132,802
KetteringBarton3,8861,677792816359122,684
KetteringBrambleside3,7491,572805886150122,588
KetteringBurton Latimer5,6892,2301,3551899343183,928
KetteringDesborough Loatland4,3611,7811,028737146143,013
KetteringDesborough St Giles3,8251,514884776292122,641
KetteringIse Lodge5,4332,2371,1561748878173,750
KetteringNorthfield2,23058579637367871,539
KetteringPipers Hill4,0521,3751,1431286673132,798
KetteringQueen Eleanor and Buccleuch1,93578942947323461,337
KetteringRothwell5,8762,1821,5621439658194,060
KetteringSlade4,6972,1578146877114153,245
KetteringSt Michael's and Wicksteed5,6561,8741,68010292139183,905
KetteringSt Peter's3,8001,6387021156295122,624
KetteringWelland2,02699831623332361,399
KetteringWilliam Knibb3,9889361,5138865139132,754
 Total70,15426,77418,2451,6191,1651,36422749,394

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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