Lagan Valley: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Lagan Valley: Overview

 Prediction: DUP hold 

MP at 2017: Jeffrey Donaldson  (DUP)
County/Area: Antrim (Northern Ireland)
Electorate: 72,380
Turnout: 62.1%
2017
Votes
2017
Share
DUP26,76259.6%
UUP7,53316.8%
MIN4,99611.1%
SDLP3,3847.5%
SF1,5673.5%
OTH6841.5%
LIB Majority19,22942.8%

EU Referendum vote:

Remain 47%
53% Leave

Lagan Valley ranks #333 for "Leave" out of 650 seats.

Lagan Valley: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Lagan Valley: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Lagan Valley

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Lagan Valley at the general election of 2017. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Lagan Valley. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results. The final block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

Lagan ValleyActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
UUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
Other
Votes
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonDonaghcloney2014508616580052337
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonDromore2014529646870055352
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonGransha2014525636810054349
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonQuilly2014492596380051327
BelfastBelvoir2014185445403047321472
BelfastDunmurry2014772540001,210254
Lisburn and CastlereaghBallinderry201423513957400170170
Lisburn and CastlereaghBallymacash2014125614790200209
Lisburn and CastlereaghBallymacbrennan201421505223700332
Lisburn and CastlereaghBallymacoss2014172836570270287
Lisburn and CastlereaghBlaris20143044438355230299
Lisburn and CastlereaghDerryaghy20141928746363092339
Lisburn and CastlereaghDromara201424906044200384
Lisburn and CastlereaghDrumbo201421705263700334
Lisburn and CastlereaghHarmony Hill20141496835949071263
Lisburn and CastlereaghHilden20141788142959085314
Lisburn and CastlereaghHillhall201426606464500411
Lisburn and CastlereaghHillsborough20143124639456230307
Lisburn and CastlereaghKnockmore2014154745870240256
Lisburn and CastlereaghLagan20143044438355230299
Lisburn and CastlereaghLagan Valley2014137665230220228
Lisburn and CastlereaghLambeg20141637439454078288
Lisburn and CastlereaghLisnagarvey2014125604760200208
Lisburn and CastlereaghMaghaberry201426615865200193193
Lisburn and CastlereaghMagheralave20141537037151074271
Lisburn and CastlereaghMaze20142894236452220284
Lisburn and CastlereaghMoira20143745547268280368
Lisburn and CastlereaghOld Warren2014161786150250268
Lisburn and CastlereaghRavernet201421905323700339
Lisburn and CastlereaghStonyford20141619639500117117
Lisburn and CastlereaghWallace Park20141928746463092339
Lisburn and CastlereaghWhite Mountain201429217371600212212
Newry, Mourne and DownBallyward2014141337201800441157

Lagan ValleyTurnout-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
UUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonDonaghcloney74152190021048
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonDromore3,1606267681300654161,996
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonGransha2,4504865863000503231,547
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonQuilly2,9385837075500603871,855
BelfastBelvoir260163935042841163
BelfastDunmurry892248000038080564
Lisburn and CastlereaghBallinderry2,522291172710002102101,593
Lisburn and CastlereaghBallymacash2,1931949474203103241,385
Lisburn and CastlereaghBallymacbrennan2,029249060543003851,282
Lisburn and CastlereaghBallymacoss3,0122671291,01904204451,902
Lisburn and CastlereaghBlaris2,14037154467672803651,352
Lisburn and CastlereaghDerryaghy2,7952741246619001314841,764
Lisburn and CastlereaghDromara2,345288069949004451,481
Lisburn and CastlereaghDrumbo2,041251060943003861,289
Lisburn and CastlereaghHarmony Hill2,167213975127001013751,368
Lisburn and CastlereaghHilden2,5892541166128401214481,635
Lisburn and CastlereaghHillhall2,509308074852004761,584
Lisburn and CastlereaghHillsborough2,19638056480682803741,386
Lisburn and CastlereaghKnockmore2,68823911591003703971,698
Lisburn and CastlereaghLagan2,13537054466672803641,349
Lisburn and CastlereaghLagan Valley2,39421210281003403531,511
Lisburn and CastlereaghLambeg2,3752331065627701114111,500
Lisburn and CastlereaghLisnagarvey2,1811949373703103221,377
Lisburn and CastlereaghMaghaberry2,864329195807002392391,809
Lisburn and CastlereaghMagheralave2,2362181005297301063871,413
Lisburn and CastlereaghMaze2,02935251443632703461,282
Lisburn and CastlereaghMoira2,63345667575833404481,663
Lisburn and CastlereaghOld Warren2,81625012195403904161,780
Lisburn and CastlereaghRavernet2,067254061643003931,306
Lisburn and CastlereaghStonyford338392395002828213
Lisburn and CastlereaghWallace Park2,7982741246639001314841,766
Lisburn and CastlereaghWhite Mountain3,143361214885002622621,984
Newry, Mourne and DownBallyward130920125027982
 Total71,1398,8802,55219,1801,0673632,05210,83344,927

The turnout-adjusted results are now combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

Lagan ValleyEst. 2017 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
UUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonDonaghcloney7513326002650
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonDromore3,2155311061,09100502181,996
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonGransha2,4934128284600381691,547
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonQuilly2,989495981,01300462021,854
BelfastBelvoir265144264002122163
BelfastDunmurry90820931190029042564
Lisburn and CastlereaghBallinderry2,566247191885001601101,593
Lisburn and CastlereaghBallymacash2,2311651159350001691,384
Lisburn and CastlereaghBallymacbrennan2,064211268430002021,282
Lisburn and CastlereaghBallymacoss3,0652261581,2840002331,901
Lisburn and CastlereaghBlaris2,177315867600001911,352
Lisburn and CastlereaghDerryaghy2,8442321631,015001002541,764
Lisburn and CastlereaghDromara2,386244309730002331,480
Lisburn and CastlereaghDrumbo2,077213268480002021,289
Lisburn and CastlereaghHarmony Hill2,20518112778600771971,368
Lisburn and CastlereaghHilden2,63421515294000922351,634
Lisburn and CastlereaghHillhall2,553261321,0410002501,584
Lisburn and CastlereaghHillsborough2,234322897790001961,386
Lisburn and CastlereaghKnockmore2,7352031411,1460002081,698
Lisburn and CastlereaghLagan2,172314867580001911,349
Lisburn and CastlereaghLagan Valley2,4361801251,0210001851,511
Lisburn and CastlereaghLambeg2,41619813986300852161,501
Lisburn and CastlereaghLisnagarvey2,2191651149290001691,377
Lisburn and CastlereaghMaghaberry2,9142792171,005001831251,809
Lisburn and CastlereaghMagheralave2,27518513181300812021,412
Lisburn and CastlereaghMaze2,064299817210001821,283
Lisburn and CastlereaghMoira2,6793871069350002351,663
Lisburn and CastlereaghOld Warren2,8652121481,2020002181,780
Lisburn and CastlereaghRavernet2,103215278580002061,306
Lisburn and CastlereaghStonyford3443326118002115213
Lisburn and CastlereaghWallace Park2,8472321631,017001002541,766
Lisburn and CastlereaghWhite Mountain3,1983062381,102002001381,984
Newry, Mourne and DownBallyward132822270021583
 Total71,1397,5333,38326,763001,5675,68044,927

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Lagan Valley

This table shows the estimated 2017 general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Lagan Valley.

Lagan ValleyEst. 2017 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
UUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonDonaghcloney7513326002650
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonDromore3,2155311061,09100502181,996
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonGransha2,4934128284600381691,547
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonQuilly2,989495981,01300462021,854
BelfastBelvoir265144264002122163
BelfastDunmurry90820931190029042564
Lisburn and CastlereaghBallinderry2,566247191885001601101,593
Lisburn and CastlereaghBallymacash2,2311651159350001691,384
Lisburn and CastlereaghBallymacbrennan2,064211268430002021,282
Lisburn and CastlereaghBallymacoss3,0652261581,2840002331,901
Lisburn and CastlereaghBlaris2,177315867600001911,352
Lisburn and CastlereaghDerryaghy2,8442321631,015001002541,764
Lisburn and CastlereaghDromara2,386244309730002331,480
Lisburn and CastlereaghDrumbo2,077213268480002021,289
Lisburn and CastlereaghHarmony Hill2,20518112778600771971,368
Lisburn and CastlereaghHilden2,63421515294000922351,634
Lisburn and CastlereaghHillhall2,553261321,0410002501,584
Lisburn and CastlereaghHillsborough2,234322897790001961,386
Lisburn and CastlereaghKnockmore2,7352031411,1460002081,698
Lisburn and CastlereaghLagan2,172314867580001911,349
Lisburn and CastlereaghLagan Valley2,4361801251,0210001851,511
Lisburn and CastlereaghLambeg2,41619813986300852161,501
Lisburn and CastlereaghLisnagarvey2,2191651149290001691,377
Lisburn and CastlereaghMaghaberry2,9142792171,005001831251,809
Lisburn and CastlereaghMagheralave2,27518513181300812021,412
Lisburn and CastlereaghMaze2,064299817210001821,283
Lisburn and CastlereaghMoira2,6793871069350002351,663
Lisburn and CastlereaghOld Warren2,8652121481,2020002181,780
Lisburn and CastlereaghRavernet2,103215278580002061,306
Lisburn and CastlereaghStonyford3443326118002115213
Lisburn and CastlereaghWallace Park2,8472321631,017001002541,766
Lisburn and CastlereaghWhite Mountain3,1983062381,102002001381,984
Newry, Mourne and DownBallyward132822270021583
 Total71,1397,5333,38326,763001,5675,68044,926

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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