Lanark and Hamilton East: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Lanark and Hamilton East: Overview

 Prediction: SNP hold 

MP at 2017: Angela Crawley  (SNP)
County/Area: Ayrshire and Lanark (Scotland)
Electorate: 77,313
Turnout: 65.3%
2017
Votes
2017
Share
Predicted
Votes
SNP16,44432.6%35.4%
CON16,17832.1%28.6%
LAB16,08431.9%31.6%
LIB1,2142.4%2.1%
UKIP5501.1%1.5%
Green00.0%0.9%
NAT Majority2660.5%Pred Maj 3.9%
Chance of
winning
SNP
47%
CON
23%
LAB
31%
LIB
0%
UKIP
0%
Green
0%

Lanark and Hamilton East : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Lanark and Hamilton East constituency, the 'Scotland' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatScotlandAll GB
Party WinnerSNPSNPCON
Economic Position16° Left14° Left
National Position17° Int17° Int1° Int
EU Leave %38%38%52%
British Identity28%27%29%
Good Health50%52%48%
UK Born97%93%88%
Good Education34%36%39%
Good Job51%49%51%
High SEC57%55%51%
Average Age50.048.748.5
ABC1 Class50%50%53%

Lanark and Hamilton East ranks #566 for "Leave", #592 for "Right" and #547 for "National" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Lanark and Hamilton East: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Lanark and Hamilton East: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Lanark and Hamilton East

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Lanark and Hamilton East at the general election of 2017. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Lanark and Hamilton East. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results. The final block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

Lanark and Hamilton EastActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SNP
Votes
Other
Votes
South LanarkshireAvondale and Stonehouse20126241,1640371812,0141,344
South LanarkshireBothwell and Uddingston20129061,5620001,3420
South LanarkshireClydesdale East20121,524727002681,6810
South LanarkshireClydesdale North20128131,6710001,346729
South LanarkshireClydesdale South20124872,024019901,9380
South LanarkshireClydesdale West20126442,5641267802,070311
South LanarkshireHamilton North and East20124301,831001331,721141
South LanarkshireHamilton South20124962,7750001,757364
South LanarkshireHamilton West and Earnock20123692,031747001,7450
South LanarkshireLarkhall20123212,717013102,0820

Lanark and Hamilton EastTurnout-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SNP
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
South LanarkshireAvondale and Stonehouse985731370421237158630
South LanarkshireBothwell and Uddingston9,7201,4802,5510002,19206,223
South LanarkshireClydesdale East3,6268424020014892902,321
South LanarkshireClydesdale North11,9191,3612,7960002,2521,2207,629
South LanarkshireClydesdale South5954016601601590381
South LanarkshireClydesdale West15,4651,1004,38121513303,5375319,897
South LanarkshireHamilton North and East9,4126092,592001882,4362006,025
South LanarkshireHamilton South11,2486623,7050002,3464867,199
South LanarkshireHamilton West and Earnock769422338802000491
South LanarkshireLarkhall15,1085915,004024103,83409,670
 Total78,8476,80021,96722340235718,1222,59550,466

The turnout-adjusted results are now combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

Lanark and Hamilton EastEst. 2017 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SNP
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
South LanarkshireAvondale and Stonehouse96625813719602110631
South LanarkshireBothwell and Uddingston9,5312,2651,921843801,91606,224
South LanarkshireClydesdale East3,55599136111522083302,322
South LanarkshireClydesdale North11,6872,9872,1402505202,20007,629
South LanarkshireClydesdale South58311012741201270380
South LanarkshireClydesdale West15,1642,9353,12846912903,23809,899
South LanarkshireHamilton North and East9,2291,8291,870703202,22306,024
South LanarkshireHamilton South11,0292,1992,543963402,32807,200
South LanarkshireHamilton West and Earnock75412617112601760491
South LanarkshireLarkhall14,8142,4783,6869521903,19209,670
 Total78,84716,17816,0841,214550016,444050,466

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Lanark and Hamilton East

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Lanark and Hamilton East.

Lanark and Hamilton EastPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SNP
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
South LanarkshireAvondale and Stonehouse96623613516962290631
South LanarkshireBothwell and Uddingston9,5312,0471,9027264522,08706,224
South LanarkshireClydesdale East3,55591035598332290402,322
South LanarkshireClydesdale North11,6872,7202,11621387682,42507,629
South LanarkshireClydesdale South5839712631431370380
South LanarkshireClydesdale West15,1642,5883,097400176933,54409,898
South LanarkshireHamilton North and East9,2291,6181,8516057502,38806,024
South LanarkshireHamilton South11,0291,9472,5218264602,52607,200
South LanarkshireHamilton West and Earnock75410916910841900490
South LanarkshireLarkhall14,8142,1393,65681259793,45409,668
 Total78,84714,41115,9281,03577143717,884050,466

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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