Lancashire West: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Lancashire West: Overview

 Prediction: LAB hold 

MP at 2017: Rosie Cooper  (LAB)
County/Area: Lancashire (North West)
Electorate: 73,258
Turnout: 74.2%
2017
Votes
2017
Share
Predicted
Votes
LAB32,03058.9%59.3%
CON20,34137.4%33.4%
LIB1,0692.0%2.0%
Green6801.3%1.8%
OTH2690.5%1.0%
UKIP00.0%2.5%
LAB Majority11,68921.5%Pred Maj 25.9%
Chance of
winning
LAB
87%
CON
13%
LIB
0%
Green
0%
OTH
0%
UKIP
0%

Lancashire West : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Lancashire West constituency, the 'North West' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatNorth WestAll GB
Party WinnerLABLABCON
Economic Position7° Left6° Left
National Position1° Nat2° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %54%54%52%
British Identity26%28%29%
Good Health48%46%48%
UK Born96%92%88%
Good Education39%37%39%
Good Job50%49%51%
High SEC50%48%51%
Average Age49.848.648.5
ABC1 Class51%50%53%

Lancashire West ranks #318 for "Leave", #476 for "Right" and #357 for "National" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Lancashire West: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Lancashire West: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Lancashire West

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Lancashire West at the general election of 2017. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Lancashire West. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results. The final block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

Lancashire WestActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
West LancashireAshurst20153912,211047200
West LancashireAughton Park20151,116818037300
West LancashireAughton and Downholland20151,5541,07104972290
West LancashireBickerstaffe201545851101500115
West LancashireBirch Green20151351,255027200
West LancashireBurscough East2014645502026100
West LancashireBurscough West2014445794033700
West LancashireDerby20151,0551,1770302323460
West LancashireDigmoor20151511,512001480
West LancashireHalsall20123313020000
West LancashireKnowsley20151,1251,5120316188186
West LancashireMoorside2014757150000
West LancashireNewburgh2014411163011400
West LancashireParbold20151,412761001620
West LancashireScarisbrick20151,19052503451000
West LancashireScott20157321,1890298212578
West LancashireSkelmersdale North20152931,6230000
West LancashireSkelmersdale South20154512,24000207243
West LancashireTanhouse20153161,6440000
West LancashireUp Holland20151,0201,743066100
West LancashireWrightington20151,334335007440

Lancashire WestTurnout-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
West LancashireAshurst4,7304612,6080557003,626
West LancashireAughton Park2,7931,0367590346002,141
West LancashireAughton and Downholland4,0851,4521,001046421403,131
West LancashireBickerstaffe1,563445496014601121,199
West LancashireBirch Green3,2382021,8740406002,482
West LancashireBurscough East3,1141,0948510443002,388
West LancashireBurscough West3,7598141,4520616002,882
West LancashireDerby5,0041,2201,36103493745323,836
West LancashireDigmoor3,3512142,1450021002,569
West LancashireHalsall1,55062156700001,188
West LancashireKnowsley4,1381,0731,44203011791773,172
West LancashireMoorside2,9092122,01800002,230
West LancashireNewburgh1,4386592610183001,103
West LancashireParbold2,8481,3207120015102,183
West LancashireScarisbrick2,8901,221539035410302,217
West LancashireScott4,2827991,29703252316313,283
West LancashireSkelmersdale North3,0403561,97400002,330
West LancashireSkelmersdale South4,8345322,643002442873,706
West LancashireTanhouse3,7454632,40800002,871
West LancashireUp Holland4,5351,0361,7700671003,477
West LancashireWrightington3,1001,3143300073302,377
 Total70,94616,54428,50805,1612,4391,73954,391

The turnout-adjusted results are now combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

Lancashire WestEst. 2017 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
West LancashireAshurst4,8848742,6754402763,626
West LancashireAughton Park2,8841,0761,026330432,142
West LancashireAughton and Downholland4,2181,6601,3328704383,130
West LancashireBickerstaffe1,6146395251608111,199
West LancashireBirch Green3,3444631,9702901092,481
West LancashireBurscough East3,2151,1441,1883601552,388
West LancashireBurscough West3,8811,1311,62710706122,883
West LancashireDerby5,1671,6421,8591630126473,837
West LancashireDigmoor3,4604392,0821303152,570
West LancashireHalsall1,60162555440141,188
West LancashireKnowsley4,2731,2751,710113051223,171
West LancashireMoorside3,0043321,877100752,231
West LancashireNewburgh1,485675406150521,103
West LancashireParbold2,9411,2618384803422,183
West LancashireScarisbrick2,9841,2459063502562,217
West LancashireScott4,4221,2521,769112087633,283
West LancashireSkelmersdale North3,1394691,85430232,331
West LancashireSkelmersdale South4,9928312,69381067343,706
West LancashireTanhouse3,8675892,27410342,871
West LancashireUp Holland4,6831,3002,1035307143,477
West LancashireWrightington3,2011,41976368012062,376
 Total70,94620,34132,0311,071067927154,391

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Lancashire West

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Lancashire West.

Lancashire WestPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
West LancashireAshurst4,8847272,690449347243,625
West LancashireAughton Park2,8849891,035335516142,142
West LancashireAughton and Downholland4,2181,5331,345878061243,130
West LancashireBickerstaffe1,614590530163115171,199
West LancashireBirch Green3,3443691,980295923212,481
West LancashireBurscough East3,2151,0471,198366128172,387
West LancashireBurscough West3,8811,0141,6391077422272,883
West LancashireDerby5,1671,4871,87516398147663,836
West LancashireDigmoor3,4603502,091135643162,569
West LancashireHalsall1,6015775594308101,188
West LancashireKnowsley4,2731,1471,7231138169383,171
West LancashireMoorside3,0042651,884104316132,231
West LancashireNewburgh1,48563041115281181,103
West LancashireParbold2,9411,173847485646132,183
West LancashireScarisbrick2,9841,155915355737172,216
West LancashireScott4,4221,1191,78311284105803,283
West LancashireSkelmersdale North3,1393751,86436015152,332
West LancashireSkelmersdale South4,9926812,709819588533,707
West LancashireTanhouse3,8674732,28617419182,871
West LancashireUp Holland4,6831,1592,118538926313,476
West LancashireWrightington3,2011,3237736861133182,376
 Total70,94618,18332,2551,0711,36597554054,389

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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