Lancaster and Fleetwood: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Lancaster and Fleetwood: Overview

 Prediction: LAB hold 

MP at 2017: Cat Smith  (LAB)
County/Area: Lancashire (North West)
Electorate: 67,171
Turnout: 68.5%
2017
Votes
2017
Share
Predicted
Votes
LAB25,34255.1%55.5%
CON18,68140.6%36.7%
LIB1,1702.5%2.6%
Green7961.7%2.3%
UKIP00.0%2.5%
OTH00.0%0.5%
LAB Majority6,66114.5%Pred Maj 18.9%
Chance of
winning
LAB
79%
CON
21%
LIB
0%
Green
0%
UKIP
0%
OTH
0%

Lancaster and Fleetwood : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Lancaster and Fleetwood constituency, the 'North West' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatNorth WestAll GB
Party WinnerLABLABCON
Economic Position1° Left6° Left
National Position1° Nat2° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %53%54%52%
British Identity29%28%29%
Good Health48%46%48%
UK Born92%92%88%
Good Education46%37%39%
Good Job49%49%51%
High SEC47%48%51%
Average Age46.248.648.5
ABC1 Class54%50%53%

Lancaster and Fleetwood ranks #348 for "Leave", #370 for "Right" and #354 for "National" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Lancaster and Fleetwood: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Lancaster and Fleetwood: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Lancaster and Fleetwood

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Lancaster and Fleetwood at the general election of 2017. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Lancaster and Fleetwood. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results. The final block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

Lancaster and FleetwoodActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
LancasterBulk20151,1423,30503644,1170
LancasterCastle20157391,31314202,188338
LancasterEllel20152,7381,143007330
LancasterJohn O'Gaunt20152,5524,37139702,4980
LancasterLower Lune Valley20152,64590893905470
LancasterMarsh20156471,22911202,264254
LancasterScotforth East20151,4901,77260306150
LancasterScotforth West20152,4823,75934103,751117
LancasterUniversity and Scotforth Rural20151,1351,58528801,4120
WyreMount20158191,359035100
WyrePark20151,3331,916000153
WyrePharos20158991,89505130117
WyrePilling20151,0453050000
WyrePreesall20155,7702,7810000
WyreRossall20152,4633,12806590630
WyreWarren20151,5852,2980000
WyreWyresdale20159093110000

Lancaster and FleetwoodTurnout-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
LancasterBulk5,1194951,43101581,78303,867
LancasterCastle3,4534087267801,2091872,608
LancasterEllel3,5981,6136730043202,718
LancasterJohn O'Gaunt5,0659941,703155097303,825
LancasterLower Lune Valley3,1191,237425439025602,357
LancasterMarsh3,2413526686101,2301382,449
LancasterScotforth East3,045765910310031602,301
LancasterScotforth West5,3919671,46513301,462464,073
LancasterUniversity and Scotforth Rural3,610700978178087102,727
WyreMount3,3128101,3440347002,501
WyrePark3,5391,0471,5060001202,673
WyrePharos3,6717281,53504150952,773
WyrePilling1,61294327500001,218
WyrePreesall3,9932,03598100003,016
WyreRossall4,4521,2041,529032203083,363
WyreWarren3,2561,0041,45600002,460
WyreWyresdale1,40679127100001,062
 Total60,88216,09317,8761,3541,2428,53289445,991

The turnout-adjusted results are now combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

Lancaster and FleetwoodEst. 2017 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
LancasterBulk5,6481,0432,59758016903,867
LancasterCastle3,8107781,62293011502,608
LancasterEllel3,9701,5441,0703606702,717
LancasterJohn O'Gaunt5,5881,3122,228163012303,826
LancasterLower Lune Valley3,4411,36273823502102,356
LancasterMarsh3,5767451,5268609302,450
LancasterScotforth East3,3608731,19021901802,300
LancasterScotforth West5,9481,4192,334179014004,072
LancasterUniversity and Scotforth Rural3,9831,1311,4767804102,726
WyreMount3,6548971,60230002,502
WyrePark3,9059881,68400002,672
WyrePharos4,0508741,89510202,772
WyrePilling1,77983638020001,218
WyrePreesall4,4051,7701,233120103,016
WyreRossall4,9121,4191,93920203,362
WyreWarren3,5929391,52010002,460
WyreWyresdale1,55174930920101,061
 Total60,88218,67925,3431,1700793045,991

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Lancaster and Fleetwood

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Lancaster and Fleetwood.

Lancaster and FleetwoodPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
LancasterBulk5,6488902,6135897190193,867
LancasterCastle3,8106741,6339365129132,607
LancasterEllel3,9701,4361,081366882132,716
LancasterJohn O'Gaunt5,5881,1602,24416396144193,826
LancasterLower Lune Valley3,4411,2687482355934122,356
LancasterMarsh3,5766481,5368661106122,449
LancasterScotforth East3,3607821,1992195831112,300
LancasterScotforth West5,9481,2572,351179102162204,071
LancasterUniversity and Scotforth Rural3,9831,0231,487786856132,725
WyreMount3,6547981,61236314122,502
WyrePark3,9058821,69506715132,672
WyrePharos4,0507641,90617017142,772
WyrePilling1,779788385231761,219
WyrePreesall4,4051,6501,245127618153,016
WyreRossall4,9121,2861,95328420173,362
WyreWarren3,5928411,53016213122,459
WyreWyresdale1,551707313227751,061
 Total60,88216,85425,5311,1701,1541,04522645,980

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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