Leicestershire North West: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Leicestershire North West: Overview

 Prediction: CON hold 

MP at 2017: Andrew Bridgen  (CON)
County/Area: Leicestershire (East Midlands)
Electorate: 75,362
Turnout: 71.0%
2017
Votes
2017
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON31,15358.2%54.5%
LAB17,86733.4%33.8%
LIB3,4206.4%6.4%
Green1,1012.1%2.6%
UKIP00.0%2.4%
OTH00.0%0.5%
CON Majority13,28624.8%Pred Maj 20.7%
Chance of
winning
CON
81%
LAB
19%
LIB
0%
Green
0%
UKIP
0%
OTH
0%

Leicestershire North West : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Leicestershire North West constituency, the 'East Midlands' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatEast MidlandsAll GB
Party WinnerCONCONCON
Economic Position7° Right3° Right
National Position12° Nat9° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %61%59%52%
British Identity24%27%29%
Good Health45%45%48%
UK Born96%91%88%
Good Education37%36%39%
Good Job49%48%51%
High SEC49%47%51%
Average Age50.149.148.5
ABC1 Class51%50%53%

Leicestershire North West ranks #140 for "Leave", #169 for "Right" and #87 for "National" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Leicestershire North West: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Leicestershire North West: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Leicestershire North West

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Leicestershire North West at the general election of 2017. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Leicestershire North West. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results. The final block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

Leicestershire North WestActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
North West LeicestershireAppleby20159804030000
North West LeicestershireAshby Castle20151,1474390000
North West LeicestershireAshby Holywell20156694668623200
North West LeicestershireAshby Ivanhoe20157526150000
North West LeicestershireAshby Money Hill2015720429020200
North West LeicestershireAshby Willesley20158026240000
North West LeicestershireAshby Woulds20158005150000
North West LeicestershireBardon2015460309406000
North West LeicestershireBlackfordby20156767560000
North West LeicestershireBroom Leys2015521538481000
North West LeicestershireCastle Donington Castle2015450418000544
North West LeicestershireCastle Donington Central2015541184000713
North West LeicestershireCastle Donington Park2015332189000304
North West LeicestershireCastle Rock2015361340598000
North West LeicestershireCoalville East2015510030028800
North West LeicestershireCoalville West201528542810526400
North West LeicestershireDaleacre Hill2015444366000421
North West LeicestershireEllistown and Battleflat2015558425034100
North West LeicestershireGreenhill201521847427929900
North West LeicestershireHermitage2015579499133000
North West LeicestershireHolly Hayes2015698578750070
North West LeicestershireHugglescote St John's201536205900132
North West LeicestershireHugglescote St Mary's2015539649102000
North West LeicestershireIbstock East20154234816131300
North West LeicestershireIbstock West2015441409029700
North West LeicestershireKegworth2015741386001680
North West LeicestershireLong Whatton and Diseworth20151,1734380000
North West LeicestershireMeasham North2015546431028500
North West LeicestershireMeasham South20155336540000
North West LeicestershireOakthorpe and Donisthorpe20157955370000
North West LeicestershireRavenstone and Packington2015806420032200
North West LeicestershireSence Valley20158755640000
North West LeicestershireSnibston North2015525413185000
North West LeicestershireSnibston South201529141810024000
North West LeicestershireThornborough20156084727836800
North West LeicestershireThringstone2015456562028000
North West LeicestershireValley20151,045369181000
North West LeicestershireWorthington and Breedon20151,082358031400

Leicestershire North WestTurnout-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
North West LeicestershireAppleby1,73791337500001,288
North West LeicestershireAshby Castle1,78996036700001,327
North West LeicestershireAshby Holywell2,02769248289240001,503
North West LeicestershireAshby Ivanhoe1,95179665100001,447
North West LeicestershireAshby Money Hill1,8697394400207001,386
North West LeicestershireAshby Willesley2,02184365600001,499
North West LeicestershireAshby Woulds1,98889757700001,474
North West LeicestershireBardon2,0045823915140001,487
North West LeicestershireBlackfordby1,80563270700001,339
North West LeicestershireBroom Leys1,9174814974440001,422
North West LeicestershireCastle Donington Castle2,1175004650006051,570
North West LeicestershireCastle Donington Central1,8125061720006661,344
North West LeicestershireCastle Donington Park1,010301172000276749
North West LeicestershireCastle Rock1,8713863636390001,388
North West LeicestershireCoalville East2,1297330431414001,578
North West LeicestershireCoalville West1,965384576141356001,457
North West LeicestershireDaleacre Hill1,7364643830004401,287
North West LeicestershireEllistown and Battleflat2,0266334820387001,502
North West LeicestershireGreenhill2,331297645380407001,729
North West LeicestershireHermitage1,9246825881570001,427
North West LeicestershireHolly Hayes1,9657165937700721,458
North West LeicestershireHugglescote St John's1,4697130116002601,089
North West LeicestershireHugglescote St Mary's1,9446027251140001,441
North West LeicestershireIbstock East1,89346552867344001,404
North West LeicestershireIbstock West1,8665324930358001,383
North West LeicestershireKegworth1,6957193750016301,257
North West LeicestershireLong Whatton and Diseworth1,9101,03138500001,416
North West LeicestershireMeasham North1,9786355010331001,467
North West LeicestershireMeasham South2,04468183500001,516
North West LeicestershireOakthorpe and Donisthorpe2,03990361000001,513
North West LeicestershireRavenstone and Packington1,9507533920301001,446
North West LeicestershireSence Valley1,74978950800001,297
North West LeicestershireSnibston North1,5735454291920001,166
North West LeicestershireSnibston South1,921395568136326001,425
North West LeicestershireThornborough1,98458645575355001,471
North West LeicestershireThringstone1,9114986140306001,418
North West LeicestershireValley2,0911,0163591760001,551
North West LeicestershireWorthington and Breedon2,1829983300290001,618
 Total72,19324,99817,6893,7484,6221632,31953,539

The turnout-adjusted results are now combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

Leicestershire North WestEst. 2017 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
North West LeicestershireAppleby1,8139373112201801,288
North West LeicestershireAshby Castle1,8689673113801101,327
North West LeicestershireAshby Holywell2,1168585239203101,504
North West LeicestershireAshby Ivanhoe2,0378875103101901,447
North West LeicestershireAshby Money Hill1,9518734244404501,386
North West LeicestershireAshby Willesley2,1108735713701701,498
North West LeicestershireAshby Woulds2,075927501390701,474
North West LeicestershireBardon2,09274444627901701,486
North West LeicestershireBlackfordby1,884702597340501,338
North West LeicestershireBroom Leys2,00161255624301101,422
North West LeicestershireCastle Donington Castle2,2109984704805401,570
North West LeicestershireCastle Donington Central1,8921,0062482007101,345
North West LeicestershireCastle Donington Park1,05450321490230749
North West LeicestershireCastle Rock1,95365039033701001,387
North West LeicestershireCoalville East2,2221,06822125403501,578
North West LeicestershireCoalville West2,05169259512704301,457
North West LeicestershireDaleacre Hill1,8127843916005201,287
North West LeicestershireEllistown and Battleflat2,1158775355603501,503
North West LeicestershireGreenhill2,43366582820103501,729
North West LeicestershireHermitage2,00869757213901801,426
North West LeicestershireHolly Hayes2,0517625958701401,458
North West LeicestershireHugglescote St John's1,53376519011102301,089
North West LeicestershireHugglescote St Mary's2,02964565012402101,440
North West LeicestershireIbstock East1,97675749111803801,404
North West LeicestershireIbstock West1,9487955025103501,383
North West LeicestershireKegworth1,76973436656010101,257
North West LeicestershireLong Whatton and Diseworth1,9941,0283314301401,416
North West LeicestershireMeasham North2,0659204753603601,467
North West LeicestershireMeasham South2,1347057613501501,516
North West LeicestershireOakthorpe and Donisthorpe2,1298975614101401,513
North West LeicestershireRavenstone and Packington2,0369684173602501,446
North West LeicestershireSence Valley1,8267774426501301,297
North West LeicestershireSnibston North1,64260743011801001,165
North West LeicestershireSnibston South2,00567060611003801,424
North West LeicestershireThornborough2,0718694975904601,471
North West LeicestershireThringstone1,9957415935303001,417
North West LeicestershireValley2,1831,03338610203001,551
North West LeicestershireWorthington and Breedon2,2781,1573596104201,619
 Total72,19331,15017,8663,41601,102053,539

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Leicestershire North West

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Leicestershire North West.

Leicestershire North WestPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
North West LeicestershireAppleby1,81388931622302561,288
North West LeicestershireAshby Castle1,86891831638311861,327
North West LeicestershireAshby Holywell2,11680252992353971,504
North West LeicestershireAshby Ivanhoe2,03783351631342671,447
North West LeicestershireAshby Money Hill1,95182142944335261,385
North West LeicestershireAshby Willesley2,11081757737352571,498
North West LeicestershireAshby Woulds2,07587250739351571,475
North West LeicestershireBardon2,092689452279352571,487
North West LeicestershireBlackfordby1,88465260234321261,338
North West LeicestershireBroom Leys2,001559561243341871,422
North West LeicestershireCastle Donington Castle2,21093947648376271,569
North West LeicestershireCastle Donington Central1,89295625320327861,345
North West LeicestershireCastle Donington Park1,054475217918273749
North West LeicestershireCastle Rock1,953598395337331761,386
North West LeicestershireCoalville East2,2221,009227254374371,577
North West LeicestershireCoalville West2,051638601127345071,457
North West LeicestershireDaleacre Hill1,81273639660305961,287
North West LeicestershireEllistown and Battleflat2,11582154156354371,503
North West LeicestershireGreenhill2,433601835201414481,730
North West LeicestershireHermitage2,008644578139342571,427
North West LeicestershireHolly Hayes2,05170860187342171,458
North West LeicestershireHugglescote St John's1,533724194111262951,089
North West LeicestershireHugglescote St Mary's2,029591656124342871,440
North West LeicestershireIbstock East1,976705496118334571,404
North West LeicestershireIbstock West1,94874350751334261,382
North West LeicestershireKegworth1,769687371563010761,257
North West LeicestershireLong Whatton and Diseworth1,99497533643332171,415
North West LeicestershireMeasham North2,06586548136354471,468
North West LeicestershireMeasham South2,13464876735362371,516
North West LeicestershireOakthorpe and Donisthorpe2,12984156741362271,514
North West LeicestershireRavenstone and Packington2,03691442336343271,446
North West LeicestershireSence Valley1,82672944765312061,298
North West LeicestershireSnibston North1,642564435118271651,165
North West LeicestershireSnibston South2,005617612110344571,425
North West LeicestershireThornborough2,07181450359355471,472
North West LeicestershireThringstone1,99568859853333771,416
North West LeicestershireValley2,183975392102373871,551
North West LeicestershireWorthington and Breedon2,2781,09736561385071,618
 Total72,19329,15418,0753,4161,2641,37724953,535

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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