Leicestershire South: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Leicestershire South: Overview

 Prediction: CON hold 

MP at 2017: Alberto Costa  (CON)
County/Area: Leicestershire (East Midlands)
Electorate: 78,895
Turnout: 71.9%
2017
Votes
2017
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON34,79561.4%58.4%
LAB16,16428.5%27.5%
LIB2,4034.2%4.3%
UKIP2,2353.9%6.8%
Green1,0921.9%3.0%
CON Majority18,63132.9%Pred Maj 30.9%
Chance of
winning
CON
91%
LAB
9%
LIB
0%
UKIP
0%
Green
0%

Leicestershire South : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Leicestershire South constituency, the 'East Midlands' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatEast MidlandsAll GB
Party WinnerCONCONCON
Economic Position11° Right3° Right
National Position13° Nat9° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %59%59%52%
British Identity26%27%29%
Good Health49%45%48%
UK Born94%91%88%
Good Education38%36%39%
Good Job53%48%51%
High SEC56%47%51%
Average Age49.849.148.5
ABC1 Class58%50%53%

Leicestershire South ranks #171 for "Leave", #73 for "Right" and #71 for "National" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Leicestershire South: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Leicestershire South: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Leicestershire South

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Leicestershire South at the general election of 2017. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Leicestershire South. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results. The final block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

Leicestershire SouthActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
BlabyBlaby South20151,8027091,988000
BlabyCosby with South Whetstone20152,9461,4390000
BlabyCountesthorpe20156,7091,1442,930000
BlabyCroft Hill20159022610000
BlabyEnderby and St John's20151,9731,09501,01600
BlabyMillfield20150-10000
BlabyNarborough and Littlethorpe20152,8998220000
BlabyNormanton20151,0144260000
BlabyNorth Whetstone20152,7411,1840000
BlabyPastures20153,0938040000
BlabyRavenhurst and Fosse20150-30000
BlabySaxondale20152,3031,4154,16491200
BlabyStanton and Flamville20157,2171,2260000
BlabyWinstanley20151,7843,4960000
HarboroughBroughton Astley-Astley2015-100000
HarboroughBroughton Astley-Broughton20151,1773890000
HarboroughBroughton Astley-Primethorpe20157052400000
HarboroughBroughton Astley-Sutton20157372890000
HarboroughDunton20151,1302500000
HarboroughLutterworth Brookfield20159654250000
HarboroughLutterworth Orchard2015660339020600
HarboroughLutterworth Springs2015637397018100
HarboroughLutterworth Swift20157924620000
HarboroughMisterton20151,1923950000
HarboroughPeatling2015967302019900
HarboroughUllesthorpe2015909229020100

Leicestershire SouthTurnout-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
BlabyBlaby South3,6151,0684201,1780002,666
BlabyCosby with South Whetstone3,6311,79987900002,678
BlabyCountesthorpe5,0802,3313971,0180003,746
BlabyCroft Hill1,64694127200001,213
BlabyEnderby and St John's3,5901,2797100659002,648
BlabyMillfield1,95601,44200001,442
BlabyNarborough and Littlethorpe4,0612,33366200002,995
BlabyNormanton1,9251,00042000001,420
BlabyNorth Whetstone4,0492,08590100002,986
BlabyPastures3,6302,12455200002,676
BlabyRavenhurst and Fosse5,53404,08100004,081
BlabySaxondale5,8341,1276922,037446004,302
BlabyStanton and Flamville5,7223,60761300004,220
BlabyWinstanley5,4161,3492,64400003,993
HarboroughBroughton Astley-Astley1,7711,306000001,306
HarboroughBroughton Astley-Broughton2,2281,23540800001,643
HarboroughBroughton Astley-Primethorpe1,3257292480000977
HarboroughBroughton Astley-Sutton1,54281732000001,137
HarboroughDunton1,65399822100001,219
HarboroughLutterworth Brookfield1,76790539800001,303
HarboroughLutterworth Orchard1,7296983590218001,275
HarboroughLutterworth Springs1,7516774220192001,291
HarboroughLutterworth Swift1,90588751800001,405
HarboroughMisterton1,9671,08936100001,450
HarboroughPeatling1,8088782740181001,333
HarboroughUllesthorpe1,7438732200193001,286
 Total76,87832,13518,4344,2331,8890056,691

The turnout-adjusted results are now combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

Leicestershire SouthEst. 2017 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
BlabyBlaby South3,7101,48453041013910202,665
BlabyCosby with South Whetstone3,7261,80570692472702,677
BlabyCountesthorpe5,2132,46167238311911103,746
BlabyCroft Hill1,68985829431211001,214
BlabyEnderby and St John's3,6841,321846374014302,648
BlabyMillfield2,00740095530233401,442
BlabyNarborough and Littlethorpe4,1682,15066569496202,995
BlabyNormanton1,9761,00435023152801,420
BlabyNorth Whetstone4,1551,949844401074602,986
BlabyPastures3,7251,94958770224802,676
BlabyRavenhurst and Fosse5,6799922,7621119412204,081
BlabySaxondale5,9872,13392469938216304,301
BlabyStanton and Flamville5,8723,223769771143704,220
BlabyWinstanley5,5581,7801,97462869103,993
HarboroughBroughton Astley-Astley1,8171,0721702436401,306
HarboroughBroughton Astley-Broughton2,2861,25033631111501,643
HarboroughBroughton Astley-Primethorpe1,3606642631820130978
HarboroughBroughton Astley-Sutton1,5828242718231101,137
HarboroughDunton1,6969921832191401,219
HarboroughLutterworth Brookfield1,8139692833091101,302
HarboroughLutterworth Orchard1,774785315291351101,275
HarboroughLutterworth Springs1,797741365381222501,291
HarboroughLutterworth Swift1,95592442418231501,404
HarboroughMisterton2,0191,14026812102101,451
HarboroughPeatling1,85598520131991701,333
HarboroughUllesthorpe1,789942206111151101,285
 Total76,87834,79716,1632,4052,2311,092056,691

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Leicestershire South

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Leicestershire South.

Leicestershire SouthPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
BlabyBlaby South3,7101,40450241121613202,665
BlabyCosby with South Whetstone3,7261,724678931245702,676
BlabyCountesthorpe5,2132,34863738522415203,746
BlabyCroft Hill1,68982128132562401,214
BlabyEnderby and St John's3,6841,241818384787302,648
BlabyMillfield2,00735794031655001,443
BlabyNarborough and Littlethorpe4,1682,060634711369502,996
BlabyNormanton1,97696133524564401,420
BlabyNorth Whetstone4,1551,859813421937902,986
BlabyPastures3,7251,86855971997802,675
BlabyRavenhurst and Fosse5,6798692,71911321216804,081
BlabySaxondale5,9872,00387970150621104,300
BlabyStanton and Flamville5,8723,096729792338304,220
BlabyWinstanley5,5581,6601,9326420113603,993
HarboroughBroughton Astley-Astley1,8171,03316125701701,306
HarboroughBroughton Astley-Broughton2,2861,20031932583301,642
HarboroughBroughton Astley-Primethorpe1,3606352531948240979
HarboroughBroughton Astley-Sutton1,5827902599562401,138
HarboroughDunton1,69695517322422701,219
HarboroughLutterworth Brookfield1,81393026931472601,303
HarboroughLutterworth Orchard1,774747302301722501,276
HarboroughLutterworth Springs1,797702352391593901,291
HarboroughLutterworth Swift1,95588240919643101,405
HarboroughMisterton2,0191,09625413513701,451
HarboroughPeatling1,855945191321353101,334
HarboroughUllesthorpe1,789903195121502501,285
 Total76,87833,08915,5932,4383,8511,721056,692

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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