Lewes: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Lewes: Overview

 Prediction: CON hold 

MP at 2017: Maria Caulfield  (CON)
County/Area: East Sussex (South East)
Electorate: 70,947
Turnout: 76.4%
2017
Votes
2017
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON26,82049.5%46.5%
LIB21,31239.3%39.4%
LAB6,06011.2%10.6%
UKIP00.0%2.6%
Green00.0%1.0%
CON Majority5,50810.2%Pred Maj 7.1%
Chance of
winning
CON
69%
LIB
28%
LAB
2%
UKIP
0%
Green
0%

Lewes : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Lewes constituency, the 'South East' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatSouth EastAll GB
Party WinnerCONCONCON
Economic Position3° Left4° Right
National Position7° Int3° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %46%52%52%
British Identity29%29%29%
Good Health45%49%48%
UK Born93%88%88%
Good Education43%43%39%
Good Job56%56%51%
High SEC59%57%51%
Average Age53.849.248.5
ABC1 Class60%60%53%

Lewes ranks #487 for "Leave", #415 for "Right" and #485 for "National" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Lewes: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Lewes: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Lewes

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Lewes at the general election of 2017. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Lewes. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results. The final block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

LewesActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
LewesBarcombe and Hamsey2015511049202330
LewesChailey and Wivelsfield20152,85501,3374634170
LewesDitchling and Westmeston20151,0328825901620
LewesKingston2015423057602970
LewesLewes Bridge20157549761,5462401,087540
LewesLewes Castle20156098871,37601,470591
LewesLewes Priory20158591,7021,44003,0514,812
LewesNewhaven Denton and Meeching20151,8891,1833,1232,503413336
LewesNewhaven Valley201579001,2208341840
LewesNewick20151,019041901250
LewesOuse Valley and Ringmer20153,7216413,7696968640
LewesPlumpton, Streat, East Chiltington and St John (Without)2015565060702020
LewesSeaford Central20151,5414581,4538543340
LewesSeaford East20151,8563011,4081,238302330
LewesSeaford North20151,8453911,7509062720
LewesSeaford South20152,00101,6455083620
LewesSeaford West20152,37401,4389682360
WealdenAlfriston2015775058624900
WealdenEast Dean2015869038727500
WealdenPolegate North20151,3922968511,3212161,461
WealdenPolegate South2015328881282720609

LewesTurnout-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
LewesBarcombe and Hamsey1,6775410521024701,309
LewesChailey and Wivelsfield4,0281,768082828725803,141
LewesDitchling and Westmeston1,88398484247015401,469
LewesKingston1,6444190570029401,283
LewesLewes Bridge3,7344275538751366163062,913
LewesLewes Castle3,82536853683208893572,982
LewesLewes Priory6,08434468157601,2201,9254,746
LewesNewhaven Denton and Meeching6,4601,0076311,6661,3352201795,038
LewesNewhaven Valley3,174646099768215002,475
LewesNewick1,8949630396011801,477
LewesOuse Valley and Ringmer5,0751,5202621,53928435303,958
LewesPlumpton, Streat, East Chiltington and St John (Without)1,8015780621020701,406
LewesSeaford Central3,81698829493254821402,976
LewesSeaford East3,7119881607506591611762,894
LewesSeaford North4,1081,1452431,08656216903,205
LewesSeaford South3,3211,148094429120802,591
LewesSeaford West3,6171,335080954413302,821
WealdenAlfriston1,8146810515219001,415
WealdenEast Dean1,7837890352250001,391
WealdenPolegate North4,1108061714937651258463,206
WealdenPolegate South1,9223459313528606411,500
 Total69,48117,7903,70815,6846,8485,7364,43054,196

The turnout-adjusted results are now combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

LewesEst. 2017 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
LewesBarcombe and Hamsey1,7126841095150001,308
LewesChailey and Wivelsfield4,1131,982991,0600003,141
LewesDitchling and Westmeston1,9239681533480001,469
LewesKingston1,6796241005580001,282
LewesLewes Bridge3,8131,0036311,2780002,912
LewesLewes Castle3,9069577511,2740002,982
LewesLewes Priory6,2121,8689581,9200004,746
LewesNewhaven Denton and Meeching6,5962,1558382,0460005,039
LewesNewhaven Valley3,2411,0243251,1260002,475
LewesNewick1,934954374860001,477
LewesOuse Valley and Ringmer5,1821,8983781,6820003,958
LewesPlumpton, Streat, East Chiltington and St John (Without)1,839723895930001,405
LewesSeaford Central3,8971,4542871,2350002,976
LewesSeaford East3,7891,5731951,1260002,894
LewesSeaford North4,1951,5463581,3000003,204
LewesSeaford South3,3911,457801,0530002,590
LewesSeaford West3,6931,695941,0320002,821
WealdenAlfriston1,852845305390001,414
WealdenEast Dean1,821908334500001,391
WealdenPolegate North4,1971,6833651,1570003,205
WealdenPolegate South1,9638211475330001,501
 Total69,48126,8226,05721,31100054,196

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Lewes

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Lewes.

LewesPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
LewesBarcombe and Hamsey1,712645103516321301,309
LewesChailey and Wivelsfield4,1131,887941,061712803,141
LewesDitchling and Westmeston1,923924145349381501,471
LewesKingston1,67958595559311201,282
LewesLewes Bridge3,8139155991,280853302,912
LewesLewes Castle3,9068677181,276873402,982
LewesLewes Priory6,2121,7259061,9221395404,746
LewesNewhaven Denton and Meeching6,5962,0037922,0481415505,039
LewesNewhaven Valley3,2419493071,127662502,474
LewesNewick1,93490935487331301,477
LewesOuse Valley and Ringmer5,1821,7793571,6841003903,959
LewesPlumpton, Streat, East Chiltington and St John (Without)1,83968184594341301,406
LewesSeaford Central3,8971,3642711,236752902,975
LewesSeaford East3,7891,4861841,127702702,894
LewesSeaford North4,1951,4493381,301833203,203
LewesSeaford South3,3911,379761,054592302,591
LewesSeaford West3,6931,610891,033642502,821
WealdenAlfriston1,85280228540321201,414
WealdenEast Dean1,82186631451311201,391
WealdenPolegate North4,1971,5863451,158833203,204
WealdenPolegate South1,963776139534381501,502
 Total69,48125,1875,73621,3371,392541054,193

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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