Lichfield: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Lichfield: Overview

 Prediction: CON hold 

MP at 2017: Michael Fabricant  (CON)
County/Area: Staffordshire (West Midlands)
Electorate: 74,430
Turnout: 71.9%
2017
Votes
2017
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON34,01863.6%59.8%
LAB15,43728.8%29.2%
LIB2,6535.0%5.0%
Green1,4162.6%3.2%
UKIP00.0%2.4%
OTH00.0%0.5%
CON Majority18,58134.7%Pred Maj 30.5%
Chance of
winning
CON
90%
LAB
10%
LIB
0%
Green
0%
UKIP
0%
OTH
0%

Lichfield : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Lichfield constituency, the 'West Midlands' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatWest MidlandsAll GB
Party WinnerCONCONCON
Economic Position10° Right2° Right
National Position12° Nat9° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %58%59%52%
British Identity26%28%29%
Good Health47%45%48%
UK Born96%89%88%
Good Education41%35%39%
Good Job56%48%51%
High SEC57%46%51%
Average Age51.348.748.5
ABC1 Class59%49%53%

Lichfield ranks #211 for "Leave", #93 for "Right" and #102 for "National" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Lichfield: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Lichfield: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Lichfield

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Lichfield at the general election of 2017. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Lichfield. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results. The final block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

LichfieldActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
East StaffordshireBagots2015-100000
East StaffordshireNeedwood20154,0311,419004770
East StaffordshireYoxall2015-100000
LichfieldAlrewas and Fradley20154,9521,724000893
LichfieldArmitage with Handsacre20155,7623,139000516
LichfieldBoley Park20153,189720051800
LichfieldBoney Hay and Central20153,8373,5870000
LichfieldChadsmead20151,2621,07192066600
LichfieldChase Terrace20151,6571,739099400
LichfieldChasetown20159791,064052100
LichfieldColton and The Ridwares2015000000
LichfieldCurborough20151,5851,249048800
LichfieldHammerwich with Wall20152,5911,157000473
LichfieldHighfield20153,2341,0790000
LichfieldLeomansley20155,3339402,332000
LichfieldLongdon2015818204027800
LichfieldSt Johns20154,9031,059864000
LichfieldStowe20154,7182,617006350
LichfieldSummerfield and All Saints20154,3023,2970000
LichfieldWhittington and Streethay20155,036002,32800

LichfieldTurnout-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
East StaffordshireBagots2,3511,510000001,510
East StaffordshireNeedwood4,9422,1597600025503,174
East StaffordshireYoxall2,4371,565000001,565
LichfieldAlrewas and Fradley5,3062,2307760004023,408
LichfieldArmitage with Handsacre5,7772,2701,2370002033,710
LichfieldBoley Park3,9181,8134090294002,516
LichfieldBoney Hay and Central5,8291,9351,80900003,744
LichfieldChadsmead4,231875743638462002,718
LichfieldChase Terrace4,3421,0531,1050631002,789
LichfieldChasetown3,2908078770429002,113
LichfieldColton and The Ridwares1,8997753526003201,219
LichfieldCurborough4,0431,2399760381002,596
LichfieldHammerwich with Wall3,3331,3145870002402,141
LichfieldHighfield4,2302,03768000002,717
LichfieldLeomansley5,9912,3854201,0430003,848
LichfieldLongdon1,8597511870255001,193
LichfieldSt Johns5,1712,3855154200003,320
LichfieldStowe5,5222,0991,1650028303,547
LichfieldSummerfield and All Saints5,7502,0911,60200003,693
LichfieldWhittington and Streethay3,1171,36900633002,002
 Total83,33832,66214,2002,1613,08557084553,523

The turnout-adjusted results are now combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

LichfieldEst. 2017 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
East StaffordshireBagots2,1001,3601162001501,511
East StaffordshireNeedwood4,4142,17977767015103,174
East StaffordshireYoxall2,1771,425122110701,565
LichfieldAlrewas and Fradley4,7392,3659125707503,409
LichfieldArmitage with Handsacre5,1592,3461,2395806703,710
LichfieldBoley Park3,4991,72758011709302,517
LichfieldBoney Hay and Central5,2062,1101,5228802503,745
LichfieldChadsmead3,7791,20992049409402,717
LichfieldChase Terrace3,8781,5231,04313109202,789
LichfieldChasetown2,9389609908008302,113
LichfieldColton and The Ridwares1,6968612944002401,219
LichfieldCurborough3,6111,3211,10910206402,596
LichfieldHammerwich with Wall2,9771,4825883004102,141
LichfieldHighfield3,7781,9846465303402,717
LichfieldLeomansley5,3512,42970963907103,848
LichfieldLongdon1,6609122142404301,193
LichfieldSt Johns4,6182,21870532207503,320
LichfieldStowe4,9322,0381,141137023003,546
LichfieldSummerfield and All Saints5,1352,0331,49411704903,693
LichfieldWhittington and Streethay2,7841,5363176508402,002
 Total83,33834,01815,4382,65201,417053,523

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Lichfield

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Lichfield.

LichfieldPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
East StaffordshireBagots2,1001,30312220362371,511
East StaffordshireNeedwood4,4142,0597896776168153,174
East StaffordshireYoxall2,1771,36612811371571,564
LichfieldAlrewas and Fradley4,7392,236925578293163,409
LichfieldArmitage with Handsacre5,1592,2061,254588986173,710
LichfieldBoley Park3,4991,63259011760106122,517
LichfieldBoney Hay and Central5,2061,9681,537889045183,746
LichfieldChadsmead3,7791,10693149465108132,717
LichfieldChase Terrace3,8781,4171,05413167107132,789
LichfieldChasetown2,938880998805194102,113
LichfieldColton and The Ridwares1,69681529940293061,219
LichfieldCurborough3,6111,2231,1191026278122,596
LichfieldHammerwich with Wall2,9771,401596305152102,140
LichfieldHighfield3,7781,881657536548132,717
LichfieldLeomansley5,3512,2837246399291183,847
LichfieldLongdon1,66086721924294961,194
LichfieldSt Johns4,6182,0927183227992163,319
LichfieldStowe4,9321,9041,15513785248173,546
LichfieldSummerfield and All Saints5,1351,8931,5091178868173,692
LichfieldWhittington and Streethay2,7841,46032565489492,001
 Total83,33831,99215,6492,6521,2811,69525253,521

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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