Londonderry East: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Londonderry East: Overview

 Prediction: DUP hold 

MP at 2017: Gregory Campbell  (DUP)
County/Area: Londonderry (Northern Ireland)
Electorate: 67,038
Turnout: 61.2%
2017
Votes
2017
Share
DUP19,72348.1%
SF10,88126.5%
SDLP4,42310.8%
UUP3,1357.6%
MIN2,5386.2%
OTH3300.8%
LIB Majority8,84221.6%

EU Referendum vote:

Remain 52%
48% Leave

Londonderry East ranks #447 for "Leave" out of 650 seats.

Londonderry East: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Londonderry East: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Londonderry East

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Londonderry East at the general election of 2017. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Londonderry East. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results. The final block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

Londonderry EastActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
UUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
Other
Votes
Causeway Coast and GlensAghadowey201442018340100208164
Causeway Coast and GlensAltahullion2014020114000546217
Causeway Coast and GlensAtlantic20143191183883800383
Causeway Coast and GlensBallykelly2014019413500528209
Causeway Coast and GlensCastlerock201441518139600206162
Causeway Coast and GlensChurchland201434447717137073022
Causeway Coast and GlensCoolessan201415415440319021359
Causeway Coast and GlensDrumsurn201418118047122025069
Causeway Coast and GlensDundooan20142731013333300328
Causeway Coast and GlensDungiven2014020013900544216
Causeway Coast and GlensFeeny2014021014600571226
Causeway Coast and GlensGarvagh201440717738900202159
Causeway Coast and GlensGreysteel2014027118900737292
Causeway Coast and GlensGreystone201416616543220022964
Causeway Coast and GlensHopefield20142791033413400336
Causeway Coast and GlensKilrea201441017939100203160
Causeway Coast and GlensMacosquin201435615534000176139
Causeway Coast and GlensMagilligan201419219250123026674
Causeway Coast and GlensMountsandel201434047016837071922
Causeway Coast and GlensPortrush and Dunluce2014220812682700264
Causeway Coast and GlensPortstewart2014251933063000301
Causeway Coast and GlensQuarry201437251518540078824
Causeway Coast and GlensRoeside201415315239818021159
Causeway Coast and GlensUniversity201436951018340078123
Causeway Coast and GlensWaterside201440856420244086426
Causeway Coast and GlensWindy Hall201437551918641079424
Derry and StrabaneClaudy2014102270369340229153
Derry and StrabanePark20148322130400584236

Londonderry EastTurnout-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
UUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
Causeway Coast and GlensAghadowey2,368443193423002191731,451
Causeway Coast and GlensAltahullion2,1810243170006612631,337
Causeway Coast and GlensAtlantic2,86445016654754005401,757
Causeway Coast and GlensBallykelly2,1060235164006402531,292
Causeway Coast and GlensCastlerock2,341438191418002171711,435
Causeway Coast and GlensChurchland2,515298413148320632191,542
Causeway Coast and GlensCoolessan2,015190190497230263731,236
Causeway Coast and GlensDrumsurn2,358223222580270308851,445
Causeway Coast and GlensDundooan2,45638514246947004621,505
Causeway Coast and GlensDungiven2,1700242168006592611,330
Causeway Coast and GlensFeeny2,2790254177006922741,397
Causeway Coast and GlensGarvagh2,295429187410002131681,407
Causeway Coast and GlensGreysteel2,9400328229008923531,802
Causeway Coast and GlensGreystone2,164205203533250282791,327
Causeway Coast and GlensHopefield2,51239314548048004731,539
Causeway Coast and GlensKilrea2,310432189412002141691,416
Causeway Coast and GlensMacosquin2,006375163359001861471,230
Causeway Coast and GlensMagilligan2,510237237618280328911,539
Causeway Coast and GlensMountsandel2,480294407145320623191,520
Causeway Coast and GlensPortrush and Dunluce1,97431011437738003721,211
Causeway Coast and GlensPortstewart2,25635413143142004241,382
Causeway Coast and GlensQuarry2,717322446160350682211,666
Causeway Coast and GlensRoeside1,990188187490220260731,220
Causeway Coast and GlensUniversity2,693320442159350677201,653
Causeway Coast and GlensWaterside2,978353488175380748231,825
Causeway Coast and GlensWindy Hall2,736324449161350687211,677
Derry and StrabaneClaudy2,3291263334554202831891,428
Derry and StrabanePark2,38085226311005972411,460
 Total66,9237,1747,1669,666603010,9635,45741,029

The turnout-adjusted results are now combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

Londonderry EastEst. 2017 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
UUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
Causeway Coast and GlensAghadowey2,37219411983000217901,450
Causeway Coast and GlensAltahullion2,1850150393006561381,337
Causeway Coast and GlensAtlantic2,8691971021,1740002841,757
Causeway Coast and GlensBallykelly2,1100145379006351331,292
Causeway Coast and GlensCastlerock2,34519111882000215901,434
Causeway Coast and GlensChurchland2,51913025552000627101,542
Causeway Coast and GlensCoolessan2,0188311773600261381,235
Causeway Coast and GlensDrumsurn2,3629713786000306451,445
Causeway Coast and GlensDundooan2,460168881,0060002431,505
Causeway Coast and GlensDungiven2,1740149389006541371,329
Causeway Coast and GlensFeeny2,2830157409006871441,397
Causeway Coast and GlensGarvagh2,29918711580400211881,405
Causeway Coast and GlensGreysteel2,9450202529008851851,801
Causeway Coast and GlensGreystone2,1689012579100280421,328
Causeway Coast and GlensHopefield2,516172891,0290002491,539
Causeway Coast and GlensKilrea2,31418911780900212891,416
Causeway Coast and GlensMacosquin2,00916410170400185771,231
Causeway Coast and GlensMagilligan2,51410414691600326481,540
Causeway Coast and GlensMountsandel2,48412825151200618101,519
Causeway Coast and GlensPortrush and Dunluce1,977135708100001951,210
Causeway Coast and GlensPortstewart2,260155819240002231,383
Causeway Coast and GlensQuarry2,72214127556200677111,666
Causeway Coast and GlensRoeside1,9938211572600258381,219
Causeway Coast and GlensUniversity2,69814027355800672101,653
Causeway Coast and GlensWaterside2,98315430161500742121,824
Causeway Coast and GlensWindy Hall2,74114227756500682111,677
Derry and StrabaneClaudy2,3335520678700281991,428
Derry and StrabanePark2,38437139564005931271,460
 Total66,9233,1354,42019,7210010,8802,86641,029

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Londonderry East

This table shows the estimated 2017 general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Londonderry East.

Londonderry EastEst. 2017 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
UUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
Causeway Coast and GlensAghadowey2,37219411983000217901,450
Causeway Coast and GlensAltahullion2,1850150393006561381,337
Causeway Coast and GlensAtlantic2,8691971021,1740002841,757
Causeway Coast and GlensBallykelly2,1100145379006351331,292
Causeway Coast and GlensCastlerock2,34519111882000215901,434
Causeway Coast and GlensChurchland2,51913025552000627101,542
Causeway Coast and GlensCoolessan2,0188311773600261381,235
Causeway Coast and GlensDrumsurn2,3629713786000306451,445
Causeway Coast and GlensDundooan2,460168881,0060002431,505
Causeway Coast and GlensDungiven2,1740149389006541371,329
Causeway Coast and GlensFeeny2,2830157409006871441,397
Causeway Coast and GlensGarvagh2,29918711580400211881,405
Causeway Coast and GlensGreysteel2,9450202529008851851,801
Causeway Coast and GlensGreystone2,1689012579100280421,328
Causeway Coast and GlensHopefield2,516172891,0290002491,539
Causeway Coast and GlensKilrea2,31418911780900212891,416
Causeway Coast and GlensMacosquin2,00916410170400185771,231
Causeway Coast and GlensMagilligan2,51410414691600326481,540
Causeway Coast and GlensMountsandel2,48412825151200618101,519
Causeway Coast and GlensPortrush and Dunluce1,977135708100001951,210
Causeway Coast and GlensPortstewart2,260155819240002231,383
Causeway Coast and GlensQuarry2,72214127556200677111,666
Causeway Coast and GlensRoeside1,9938211572600258381,219
Causeway Coast and GlensUniversity2,69814027355800672101,653
Causeway Coast and GlensWaterside2,98315430161500742121,824
Causeway Coast and GlensWindy Hall2,74114227756500682111,677
Derry and StrabaneClaudy2,3335520678700281991,428
Derry and StrabanePark2,38437139564005931271,460
 Total66,9233,1354,42019,7210010,8802,86641,022

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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