Louth and Horncastle: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Louth and Horncastle: Overview

 Prediction: CON hold 

MP at 2017: Victoria Atkins  (CON)
County/Area: Lincolnshire (East Midlands)
Electorate: 79,006
Turnout: 66.8%
2017
Votes
2017
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON33,73363.9%60.2%
LAB14,09226.7%27.1%
UKIP2,4604.7%7.0%
LIB1,9903.8%3.8%
OTH4960.9%1.4%
Green00.0%0.5%
CON Majority19,64137.2%Pred Maj 33.1%
Chance of
winning
CON
92%
LAB
8%
UKIP
0%
LIB
0%
OTH
0%
Green
0%

Louth and Horncastle : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Louth and Horncastle constituency, the 'East Midlands' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatEast MidlandsAll GB
Party WinnerCONCONCON
Economic Position11° Right3° Right
National Position18° Nat9° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %67%59%52%
British Identity24%27%29%
Good Health39%45%48%
UK Born97%91%88%
Good Education31%36%39%
Good Job44%48%51%
High SEC44%47%51%
Average Age54.549.148.5
ABC1 Class43%50%53%

Louth and Horncastle ranks #47 for "Leave", #79 for "Right" and #18 for "National" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Louth and Horncastle: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Louth and Horncastle: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Louth and Horncastle

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Louth and Horncastle at the general election of 2017. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Louth and Horncastle. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results. The final block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

Louth and HorncastleActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
East LindseyAlford20151,70998400284775
East LindseyBinbrook20159643750000
East LindseyChapel St Leonards20151,6211,295000668
East LindseyConingsby and Mareham20152,392002,62401,177
East LindseyFulstow2015847236029800
East LindseyGrimoldby201527511401720611
East LindseyHagworthingham20158640040300
East LindseyHalton Holegate2015434003530626
East LindseyHolton le Clay and North Thoresby20151,7276790001,225
East LindseyHorncastle20151,8437751,6631,04201,125
East LindseyLegbourne20158940032000
East LindseyMablethorpe20151,8853,35703,2330644
East LindseyMarshchapel and Somercotes20151,29948901,09400
East LindseyNorth Holme20155234650000
East LindseyPriory and St James'20159021,807000609
East LindseyRoughton2015-100000
East LindseySpilsby2015538297036700
East LindseySt Margaret's2015481403000255
East LindseySt Mary's2015344167000714
East LindseySt Michael's2015384223000490
East LindseySutton on Sea20151,464727075701,696
East LindseyTetford and Donington2015480002500696
East LindseyTetney20156480000577
East LindseyTrinity201523436101950135
East LindseyWilloughby with Sloothby2015591167000563
East LindseyWithern and Theddlethorpe2015-100000
East LindseyWoodhall Spa20152,946474004990

Louth and HorncastleTurnout-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
East LindseyAlford3,4971,132652001885132,485
East LindseyBinbrook1,86895537200001,327
East LindseyChapel St Leonards3,5591,1449140004712,529
East LindseyConingsby and Mareham6,8581,882002,06409264,872
East LindseyFulstow1,8458042240283001,311
East LindseyGrimoldby1,672279116017406191,188
East LindseyHagworthingham1,76285400398001,252
East LindseyHalton Holegate1,6583620029405221,178
East LindseyHolton le Clay and North Thoresby3,7671,2735000009032,676
East LindseyHorncastle5,5891,1354771,02464206933,971
East LindseyLegbourne1,76692400331001,255
East LindseyMablethorpe6,0458881,58101,52303034,295
East LindseyMarshchapel and Somercotes3,4741,1124190937002,468
East LindseyNorth Holme1,76166258900001,251
East LindseyPriory and St James'3,7247191,4410004862,646
East LindseyRoughton1,7271,227000001,227
East LindseySpilsby2,3367434100507001,660
East LindseySt Margaret's1,9365814870003081,376
East LindseySt Mary's1,6923381640007011,203
East LindseySt Michael's1,6144012330005121,146
East LindseySutton on Sea3,545794394041109202,519
East LindseyTetford and Donington1,7964290022406231,276
East LindseyTetney1,87770500006281,333
East LindseyTrinity1,851333513027701921,315
East LindseyWilloughby with Sloothby1,9346151740005861,375
East LindseyWithern and Theddlethorpe1,8221,294000001,294
East LindseyWoodhall Spa3,3071,7662840029902,349
 Total74,28223,3519,9441,0248,0654879,90652,777

The turnout-adjusted results are now combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

Louth and HorncastleEst. 2017 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
East LindseyAlford3,7191,57274793500222,484
East LindseyBinbrook1,987961336518071,327
East LindseyChapel St Leonards3,7851,365966271410312,530
East LindseyConingsby and Mareham7,2943,5076931514630584,872
East LindseyFulstow1,9629842512349031,310
East LindseyGrimoldby1,77879427054490201,187
East LindseyHagworthingham1,8741,0271094168061,251
East LindseyHalton Holegate1,76385320541620171,178
East LindseyHolton le Clay and North Thoresby4,0071,83469966430342,676
East LindseyHorncastle5,9442,2139096551560383,971
East LindseyLegbourne1,8781,0221413255041,254
East LindseyMablethorpe6,4291,8951,8251004470284,295
East LindseyMarshchapel and Somercotes3,6951,619589302180122,468
East LindseyNorth Holme1,8736855103022051,252
East LindseyPriory and St James'3,9611,2221,249141140212,647
East LindseyRoughton1,8371,11083623051,227
East LindseySpilsby2,48592653563131041,659
East LindseySt Margaret's2,05975055241200121,375
East LindseySt Mary's1,80077233951180231,203
East LindseySt Michael's1,7176754093970171,147
East LindseySutton on Sea3,7701,464753841820352,518
East LindseyTetford and Donington1,91098419829450201,276
East LindseyTetney1,99699027328170251,333
East LindseyTrinity1,9695816144368091,315
East LindseyWilloughby with Sloothby2,05799528544290211,374
East LindseyWithern and Theddlethorpe1,9381,0501911039041,294
East LindseyWoodhall Spa3,5171,88636064270122,349
 Total74,28233,73614,0911,9912,461049352,777

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Louth and Horncastle

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Louth and Horncastle.

Louth and HorncastlePredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
East LindseyAlford3,7191,4797579310913332,484
East LindseyBinbrook1,9879123415497131,327
East LindseyChapel St Leonards3,7851,2719762720113432,531
East LindseyConingsby and Mareham7,2943,32571215157825814,872
East LindseyFulstow1,9629352562380791,310
East LindseyGrimoldby1,77875027554776251,187
East LindseyHagworthingham1,87498011441976121,250
East LindseyHalton Holegate1,76380921041906221,178
East LindseyHolton le Clay and North Thoresby4,0071,7347096610614462,675
East LindseyHorncastle5,9442,06592465525020563,970
East LindseyLegbourne1,87897514632856101,254
East LindseyMablethorpe6,4291,7351,84210054822484,295
East LindseyMarshchapel and Somercotes3,6951,5275993027613232,468
East LindseyNorth Holme1,87363851530526111,252
East LindseyPriory and St James'3,9611,1231,2591417614332,646
East LindseyRoughton1,8371,064886526111,227
East LindseySpilsby2,485864541631709121,659
East LindseySt Margaret's2,05969955741527181,374
East LindseySt Mary's1,80072734451466291,203
East LindseySt Michael's1,71763241339346221,146
East LindseySutton on Sea3,7701,3707638424113472,518
East LindseyTetford and Donington1,91093620329757261,276
East LindseyTetney1,99694027828487311,332
East LindseyTrinity1,96953261943997151,315
East LindseyWilloughby with Sloothby2,05794429044617271,373
East LindseyWithern and Theddlethorpe1,9381,00219610707101,295
East LindseyWoodhall Spa3,5171,798369648212232,348
 Total74,28231,76614,2961,9913,70427273652,765

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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