Maidstone and The Weald: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Maidstone and The Weald: Overview

 Prediction: CON hold 

MP at 2017: Helen Grant  (CON)
County/Area: Kent (South East)
Electorate: 75,334
Turnout: 68.6%
2017
Votes
2017
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON29,13656.4%53.3%
LAB11,43222.1%21.1%
LIB8,45516.4%16.4%
UKIP1,6133.1%6.2%
Green8881.7%2.9%
OTH1720.3%0.1%
CON Majority17,70434.2%Pred Maj 32.3%
Chance of
winning
CON
91%
LAB
7%
LIB
2%
UKIP
0%
Green
0%
OTH
0%

Maidstone and The Weald : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Maidstone and The Weald constituency, the 'South East' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatSouth EastAll GB
Party WinnerCONCONCON
Economic Position5° Right4° Right
National Position4° Nat3° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %56%52%52%
British Identity27%29%29%
Good Health48%49%48%
UK Born89%88%88%
Good Education40%43%39%
Good Job56%56%51%
High SEC57%57%51%
Average Age49.149.248.5
ABC1 Class59%60%53%

Maidstone and The Weald ranks #271 for "Leave", #217 for "Right" and #278 for "National" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Maidstone and The Weald: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Maidstone and The Weald: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Maidstone and The Weald

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Maidstone and The Weald at the general election of 2017. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Maidstone and The Weald. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results. The final block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

Maidstone and The WealdActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
MaidstoneAllington20151,3133761,87871100
MaidstoneBarming20121820000722
MaidstoneBridge201244320040701410
MaidstoneCoxheath and Hunton20151,4472541,5017651670
MaidstoneEast20151,2504531,51186520517
MaidstoneFant20151,2558609307424340
MaidstoneHeath201277743486801200
MaidstoneHigh Street20159796051,0967712380
MaidstoneLoose2015556068722500
MaidstoneMarden and Yalding20152,0383678668681510
MaidstoneNorth20151,2554451,2307832150
MaidstoneSouth20151,6323711,7487441170
MaidstoneStaplehurst20151,392244754496123235
Tunbridge WellsBenenden and Cranbrook20151,85933787462400
Tunbridge WellsFrittenden and Sissinghurst2015554811071240349

Maidstone and The WealdTurnout-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
MaidstoneAllington5,0331,0913121,561591003,555
MaidstoneBarming1,73024600009761,222
MaidstoneBridge4,2831,1255081,034035803,025
MaidstoneCoxheath and Hunton5,3501,3232321,37269915303,779
MaidstoneEast6,2581,2854661,553889211174,421
MaidstoneFant6,9781,4661,0041,08686750704,930
MaidstoneHeath4,4101,1016151,230017003,116
MaidstoneHigh Street7,1111,3338241,4921,05032405,023
MaidstoneLoose1,7194600568186001,214
MaidstoneMarden and Yalding5,7311,92334681781914204,047
MaidstoneNorth6,9511,5695561,53897926904,911
MaidstoneSouth6,0101,5023421,60968510804,246
MaidstoneStaplehurst4,3411,3162317134691162223,067
Tunbridge WellsBenenden and Cranbrook5,6872,022367951679004,019
Tunbridge WellsFrittenden and Sissinghurst1,589512759911503221,123
 Total73,18118,2745,87815,6238,0282,3581,53751,698

The turnout-adjusted results are now combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

Maidstone and The WealdEst. 2017 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
MaidstoneAllington5,1812,059648699141443,555
MaidstoneBarming1,781832203962111581,221
MaidstoneBridge4,4091,6457085173810893,025
MaidstoneCoxheath and Hunton5,5072,3146336421483573,779
MaidstoneEast6,4422,3411,0198311358864,420
MaidstoneFant7,1832,2551,59275916914874,930
MaidstoneHeath4,5401,634792593454663,116
MaidstoneHigh Street7,3202,3591,4648402559585,021
MaidstoneLoose1,770760156248311541,214
MaidstoneMarden and Yalding5,9002,7036954661304784,049
MaidstoneNorth7,1552,5091,3957111949834,910
MaidstoneSouth6,1872,5077707761483694,246
MaidstoneStaplehurst4,4691,9285384736349163,067
Tunbridge WellsBenenden and Cranbrook5,8542,507625705799754,018
Tunbridge WellsFrittenden and Sissinghurst1,63678419499178221,124
 Total73,18129,13711,4328,4551,61488517251,698

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Maidstone and The Weald

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Maidstone and The Weald.

Maidstone and The WealdPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
MaidstoneAllington5,1811,9526117012464513,556
MaidstoneBarming1,781795191978636141,219
MaidstoneBridge4,4091,55467351913214523,025
MaidstoneCoxheath and Hunton5,5072,2005976442597823,780
MaidstoneEast6,4422,20896883326914014,419
MaidstoneFant7,1832,1061,53576231920624,930
MaidstoneHeath4,5401,5407565951418313,116
MaidstoneHigh Street7,3202,2081,40684340815425,021
MaidstoneLoose1,770723147249662811,214
MaidstoneMarden and Yalding5,9002,5816554682509324,049
MaidstoneNorth7,1552,3611,33971434115514,911
MaidstoneSouth6,1872,3797267782758524,245
MaidstoneStaplehurst4,4691,8355074751598643,066
Tunbridge WellsBenenden and Cranbrook5,8542,38658970719314114,017
Tunbridge WellsFrittenden and Sissinghurst1,636750183100612551,124
 Total73,18127,57810,8838,4853,2051,5004151,692

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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