Maldon: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Maldon: Overview

 Prediction: CON hold 

MP at 2017: John Whittingdale  (CON)
County/Area: Essex (Anglia)
Electorate: 66,960
Turnout: 75.0%
2017
Votes
2017
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON34,11167.9%64.9%
LAB10,68121.3%20.3%
LIB2,1814.3%4.4%
UKIP1,8993.8%6.9%
Green1,0732.1%3.4%
OTH2570.5%0.1%
CON Majority23,43046.7%Pred Maj 44.7%
Chance of
winning
CON
97%
LAB
3%
LIB
0%
UKIP
0%
Green
0%
OTH
0%

Maldon : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Maldon constituency, the 'Anglia' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatAngliaAll GB
Party WinnerCONCONCON
Economic Position14° Right8° Right
National Position14° Nat10° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %60%57%52%
British Identity24%27%29%
Good Health48%47%48%
UK Born96%89%88%
Good Education36%37%39%
Good Job56%53%51%
High SEC58%53%51%
Average Age51.449.448.5
ABC1 Class58%55%53%

Maldon ranks #155 for "Leave", #41 for "Right" and #50 for "National" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Maldon: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Maldon: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Maldon

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Maldon at the general election of 2017. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Maldon. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results. The final block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

MaldonActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
ChelmsfordBicknacre and East and West Hanningfield20153,78066841502780
ChelmsfordLittle Baddow, Danbury and Sandon20158,8454971,4599775290
ChelmsfordRettendon and Runwell20153,1783101761,7892290
ChelmsfordSouth Hanningfield, Stock and Margaretting20154,01329740373600
ChelmsfordSouth Woodham - Chetwood and Collingwood20155,44252007783812,490
ChelmsfordSouth Woodham - Elmwood and Woodville20155,224853086802,979
MaldonAlthorne20151,877008560677
MaldonBurnham-on-Crouch North20151,66849100213979
MaldonBurnham-on-Crouch South20152,097512005690
MaldonHeybridge East20152,05439706630470
MaldonHeybridge West20151,488496000860
MaldonMaldon East20155343710000
MaldonMaldon North20152,034911004630
MaldonMaldon South20152,0300000887
MaldonMaldon West20151,4590004981,303
MaldonMayland20152,4450000896
MaldonPurleigh2015-200000
MaldonSouthminster20151,40627900306896
MaldonTillingham2015683163034300

MaldonTurnout-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
ChelmsfordBicknacre and East and West Hanningfield3,9552,102371231015502,859
ChelmsfordLittle Baddow, Danbury and Sandon6,5053,37919055737320204,701
ChelmsfordRettendon and Runwell3,8371,5511518687311202,773
ChelmsfordSouth Hanningfield, Stock and Margaretting4,3542,318172233425003,148
ChelmsfordSouth Woodham - Chetwood and Collingwood6,5612,68525703841881,2294,743
ChelmsfordSouth Woodham - Elmwood and Woodville6,3292,408393040001,3734,574
MaldonAlthorne3,3181,3200060204762,398
MaldonBurnham-on-Crouch North2,9231,052310001346172,113
MaldonBurnham-on-Crouch South3,0881,4733600040002,233
MaldonHeybridge East3,1791,317255042503012,298
MaldonHeybridge West3,2301,2224070007062,335
MaldonMaldon East1,77675752600001,283
MaldonMaldon North3,2421,3996260031802,343
MaldonMaldon South3,1311,57500006882,263
MaldonMaldon West2,9869660003308632,159
MaldonMayland3,3741,78500006542,439
MaldonPurleigh2,6031,881000001,881
MaldonSouthminster3,3591,182235002577542,428
MaldonTillingham1,7047081690355001,232
 Total69,45431,0804,4221,1073,8372,0967,66150,203

The turnout-adjusted results are now combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

MaldonEst. 2017 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
ChelmsfordBicknacre and East and West Hanningfield3,8132,096516167185572,859
ChelmsfordLittle Baddow, Danbury and Sandon6,2713,5015574451137964,701
ChelmsfordRettendon and Runwell3,6991,7715231092976492,773
ChelmsfordSouth Hanningfield, Stock and Margaretting4,1982,43839115613114183,148
ChelmsfordSouth Woodham - Chetwood and Collingwood6,3253,2131,08915615593364,742
ChelmsfordSouth Woodham - Elmwood and Woodville6,1023,0151,12118517840354,574
MaldonAlthorne3,1991,6144476424120122,398
MaldonBurnham-on-Crouch North2,8181,323577974260152,114
MaldonBurnham-on-Crouch South2,9771,521442328115442,234
MaldonHeybridge East3,0651,493572481354192,298
MaldonHeybridge West3,1141,413727936422172,336
MaldonMaldon East1,71267253023401531,283
MaldonMaldon North3,1261,406677833413572,342
MaldonMaldon South3,0191,5484561683045172,264
MaldonMaldon West2,8791,32455714015103202,159
MaldonMayland3,2531,801443657935162,439
MaldonPurleigh2,5101,67114323261281,883
MaldonSouthminster3,2381,4586809110477182,428
MaldonTillingham1,64383523338116821,232
 Total69,45434,11310,6812,1831,8991,07225950,203

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Maldon

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Maldon.

MaldonPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
ChelmsfordBicknacre and East and West Hanningfield3,8132,0104871691048822,860
ChelmsfordLittle Baddow, Danbury and Sandon6,2713,35952644724012824,702
ChelmsfordRettendon and Runwell3,6991,6874931113829722,772
ChelmsfordSouth Hanningfield, Stock and Margaretting4,1982,3433691582245053,149
ChelmsfordSouth Woodham - Chetwood and Collingwood6,3253,0701,03515931415594,742
ChelmsfordSouth Woodham - Elmwood and Woodville6,1022,8771,06918833210094,575
MaldonAlthorne3,1991,541422653174932,397
MaldonBurnham-on-Crouch North2,8181,259553981128742,113
MaldonBurnham-on-Crouch South2,9771,4534173314918012,233
MaldonHeybridge East3,0651,423546492086922,297
MaldonHeybridge West3,1141,342701941425242,335
MaldonMaldon East1,71263351624803011,284
MaldonMaldon North3,1261,3356518410716322,342
MaldonMaldon South3,0191,4804301691067442,263
MaldonMaldon West2,8791,2595331418913252,159
MaldonMayland3,2531,727418661586542,438
MaldonPurleigh2,5101,61413524763221,883
MaldonSouthminster3,2381,3856539218510852,428
MaldonTillingham1,643798220391532211,233
 Total69,45432,59510,1742,2103,4781,6816750,205

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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