Mansfield: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Mansfield: Overview

 Prediction: CON hold 

MP at 2017: Ben Bradley  (CON)
County/Area: Nottinghamshire (East Midlands)
Electorate: 77,811
Turnout: 64.5%
2017
Votes
2017
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON23,39246.6%46.6%
LAB22,33544.5%44.5%
UKIP2,6545.3%5.3%
MIN1,0792.2%2.2%
LIB6971.4%1.4%
Green00.0%0.0%
CON Majority1,0572.1%Pred Maj 2.1%
Chance of
winning
CON
100%
LAB
0%
UKIP
0%
MIN
0%
LIB
0%
Green
0%

Mansfield : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Mansfield constituency, the 'East Midlands' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatEast MidlandsAll GB
Party WinnerCONCONCON
Economic Position2° Left3° Right
National Position17° Nat9° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %71%59%52%
British Identity21%27%29%
Good Health41%45%48%
UK Born94%91%88%
Good Education28%36%39%
Good Job41%48%51%
High SEC40%47%51%
Average Age49.149.148.5
ABC1 Class40%50%53%

Mansfield ranks #16 for "Leave", #403 for "Right" and #22 for "National" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Mansfield: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Mansfield: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Mansfield

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Mansfield at the general election of 2017. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Mansfield. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results. The final block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

MansfieldActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
MansfieldAbbott20150626070500
MansfieldBerry Hill2015503245000876
MansfieldBrick Kiln20150712000559
MansfieldBroomhill20150504000543
MansfieldBull Farm and Pleasley Hill2015055003570422
MansfieldCarr Bank20150500000576
MansfieldEakring20150552000902
MansfieldGrange Farm201503700001,146
MansfieldHolly20150505000979
MansfieldHornby201506600599034
MansfieldKings Walk20150544000707
MansfieldKingsway2015346523000390
MansfieldLadybrook20150624000453
MansfieldLindhurst2015035100207914
MansfieldLing Forest20150538000909
MansfieldManor20150-10000
MansfieldMarket Warsop20150785000468
MansfieldMaun Valley20150561000951
MansfieldMeden20150932000384
MansfieldNetherfield2015047503710483
MansfieldNewgate20150431000523
MansfieldNewlands20150615067900
MansfieldOak Tree20150552000351
MansfieldOakham2015410441000452
MansfieldPark Hall20150820049300
MansfieldPeafields20150704000677
MansfieldPenniment20150716000454
MansfieldPortland20150429000261
MansfieldRacecourse20150416000821
MansfieldRansom Wood20150638048400
MansfieldSandhurst20150528000716
MansfieldSherwood20150595000532
MansfieldWarsop Carrs201501,069000391
MansfieldWoodhouse20150840000421
MansfieldWoodlands20150421000569
MansfieldYeoman Hill20150721000716

MansfieldTurnout-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
MansfieldAbbott1,95905960671001,267
MansfieldBerry Hill1,8243651780006361,179
MansfieldBrick Kiln2,35508530006701,523
MansfieldBroomhill2,23306950007491,444
MansfieldBull Farm and Pleasley Hill2,4820664043105101,605
MansfieldCarr Bank2,30906940008001,494
MansfieldEakring2,07905110008341,345
MansfieldGrange Farm2,20203480001,0771,425
MansfieldHolly2,33405140009961,510
MansfieldHornby1,951064405850331,262
MansfieldKings Walk2,19606180008031,421
MansfieldKingsway2,0703685560004151,339
MansfieldLadybrook2,48809330006771,610
MansfieldLindhurst1,9580302001787861,266
MansfieldLing Forest2,02304870008221,309
MansfieldManor2,12701,37600001,376
MansfieldMarket Warsop2,31209370005591,496
MansfieldMaun Valley1,99604790008121,291
MansfieldMeden2,09209580003951,353
MansfieldNetherfield2,1960508039705161,421
MansfieldNewgate2,19506420007781,420
MansfieldNewlands2,32907160791001,507
MansfieldOak Tree2,17608610005471,408
MansfieldOakham1,7993663940004041,164
MansfieldPark Hall2,27109180552001,470
MansfieldPeafields2,28007520007231,475
MansfieldPenniment2,19608690005511,420
MansfieldPortland1,71706910004201,111
MansfieldRacecourse2,17504730009341,407
MansfieldRansom Wood2,11507780590001,368
MansfieldSandhurst2,08905740007781,352
MansfieldSherwood1,78006080005441,152
MansfieldWarsop Carrs2,31201,0950004011,496
MansfieldWoodhouse2,50501,0790005411,620
MansfieldWoodlands1,82005010006771,178
MansfieldYeoman Hill2,58808400008341,674
 Total77,5331,09924,64204,01717820,22250,158

The turnout-adjusted results are now combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

MansfieldEst. 2017 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
MansfieldAbbott1,966375594112750131,268
MansfieldBerry Hill1,8318992192560301,179
MansfieldBrick Kiln2,36364175831630301,523
MansfieldBroomhill2,24164268252340351,445
MansfieldBull Farm and Pleasley Hill2,491653704112060311,605
MansfieldCarr Bank2,31773566516380391,493
MansfieldEakring2,08680146723190351,345
MansfieldGrange Farm2,21086847623150421,424
MansfieldHolly2,34292150421270361,509
MansfieldHornby1,95851349672260211,263
MansfieldKings Walk2,20483252017160351,420
MansfieldKingsway2,07771154918340261,338
MansfieldLadybrook2,49762486811670401,610
MansfieldLindhurst1,96589630315190331,266
MansfieldLing Forest2,03077845116300341,309
MansfieldManor2,13544086217380181,375
MansfieldMarket Warsop2,32060978011640311,495
MansfieldMaun Valley2,00371947933270331,291
MansfieldMeden2,10049776716530211,354
MansfieldNetherfield2,204642572321510231,420
MansfieldNewgate2,20363866116620431,420
MansfieldNewlands2,337461696343010151,507
MansfieldOak Tree2,18458276610230261,407
MansfieldOakham1,8057553612260201,164
MansfieldPark Hall2,279362844172340141,471
MansfieldPeafields2,28875063331260351,475
MansfieldPenniment2,20459573118490271,420
MansfieldPortland1,7234425967380271,110
MansfieldRacecourse2,18377450836470421,407
MansfieldRansom Wood2,12340169852490161,369
MansfieldSandhurst2,09671155829180351,351
MansfieldSherwood1,78654053210390301,151
MansfieldWarsop Carrs2,32052688711470251,496
MansfieldWoodhouse2,51453198021470421,621
MansfieldWoodlands1,82767243611250351,179
MansfieldYeoman Hill2,59785973013320401,674
 Total77,53323,39522,3336972,65101,07850,158

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Mansfield

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Mansfield.

MansfieldPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
MansfieldAbbott1,966374594112750131,267
MansfieldBerry Hill1,8318992192560301,179
MansfieldBrick Kiln2,36364075831630301,522
MansfieldBroomhill2,24164168252340351,444
MansfieldBull Farm and Pleasley Hill2,491652704112061311,605
MansfieldCarr Bank2,31773466516380391,492
MansfieldEakring2,08680046723190351,344
MansfieldGrange Farm2,21086747623150421,423
MansfieldHolly2,34292050421270361,508
MansfieldHornby1,95851249672260211,262
MansfieldKings Walk2,20483152017160351,419
MansfieldKingsway2,07771054918340261,337
MansfieldLadybrook2,49762386811671401,610
MansfieldLindhurst1,96589530315190331,265
MansfieldLing Forest2,03077745116300341,308
MansfieldManor2,13543986217380181,374
MansfieldMarket Warsop2,32060878011640311,494
MansfieldMaun Valley2,00371847933270331,290
MansfieldMeden2,10049676716530211,353
MansfieldNetherfield2,204641572321510231,419
MansfieldNewgate2,20363766116620431,419
MansfieldNewlands2,337460696343010151,506
MansfieldOak Tree2,18458176610230261,406
MansfieldOakham1,8057553612260201,164
MansfieldPark Hall2,279361844172340141,470
MansfieldPeafields2,28874963331260351,474
MansfieldPenniment2,20459473118490271,419
MansfieldPortland1,7234425967380271,110
MansfieldRacecourse2,18377350836470421,406
MansfieldRansom Wood2,12340069852490161,368
MansfieldSandhurst2,09671055829180351,350
MansfieldSherwood1,78654053210390301,151
MansfieldWarsop Carrs2,32052588711470251,495
MansfieldWoodhouse2,51453098021471421,621
MansfieldWoodlands1,82767243611250351,179
MansfieldYeoman Hill2,59785873013321401,674
 Total77,53323,36422,3336972,65141,07850,127

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
Powered by TigerLib (16-Jun-2017 09:23)