Meon Valley: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Meon Valley: Overview

 Prediction: CON hold 

MP at 2017: George Hollingbery  (CON)
County/Area: Hampshire (South East)
Electorate: 74,246
Turnout: 73.0%
2017
Votes
2017
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON35,62465.7%62.0%
LAB9,93218.3%18.7%
LIB5,90010.9%10.9%
UKIP1,4352.6%5.0%
Green1,3012.4%2.9%
OTH00.0%0.5%
CON Majority25,69247.4%Pred Maj 43.3%
Chance of
winning
CON
98%
LAB
2%
LIB
0%
UKIP
0%
Green
0%
OTH
0%

Meon Valley : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Meon Valley constituency, the 'South East' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatSouth EastAll GB
Party WinnerCONCONCON
Economic Position9° Right4° Right
National Position5° Nat3° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %53%52%52%
British Identity30%29%29%
Good Health50%49%48%
UK Born94%88%88%
Good Education44%43%39%
Good Job59%56%51%
High SEC62%57%51%
Average Age51.849.248.5
ABC1 Class63%60%53%

Meon Valley ranks #330 for "Leave", #125 for "Right" and #253 for "National" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Meon Valley: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Meon Valley: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Meon Valley

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Meon Valley at the general election of 2017. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Meon Valley. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results. The final block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

Meon ValleyActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
East HampshireClanfield and Finchdean20153,2577891,069000
East HampshireHorndean Catherington and Lovedean20151,0060293000
East HampshireHorndean Downs20159671009821200
East HampshireHorndean Hazleton and Blendworth20151,0160383000
East HampshireHorndean Kings20151,027039531100
East HampshireHorndean Murray2015869100322000
East HampshireRowlands Castle20151,017168421000
HavantCowplain20151,50134918903820
HavantHart Plain20151,318741335000
HavantWaterloo20151,1912582508472000
WinchesterBishops Waltham20151,6743537104140799
WinchesterBoarhunt and Southwick201221723302000
WinchesterCheriton and Bishops Sutton20151,002118317000
WinchesterDenmead20152,69336153960000
WinchesterDroxford, Soberton and Hambledon201461865161000
WinchesterOwslebury and Curdridge20151,63718031728500
WinchesterShedfield201478511814930600
WinchesterSwanmore and Newtown20151,61820455032900
WinchesterUpper Meon Valley20158019721313800
WinchesterWhiteley201565910874813800
WinchesterWickham20156451641,21526100

Meon ValleyTurnout-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
East HampshireClanfield and Finchdean3,9431,8714536140002,938
East HampshireHorndean Catherington and Lovedean1,9521,12603280001,454
East HampshireHorndean Downs2,0561,076111109236001,532
East HampshireHorndean Hazleton and Blendworth2,0131,08904110001,500
East HampshireHorndean Kings2,5411,1220431340001,893
East HampshireHorndean Murray2,0001,0031153720001,490
East HampshireRowlands Castle2,0179521573940001,503
HavantCowplain7,5633,493812440088905,634
HavantHart Plain7,9943,2791,8438330005,955
HavantWaterloo7,7192,4945405241,77441905,751
WinchesterBishops Waltham5,4551,72236373142608224,064
WinchesterBoarhunt and Southwick1,20135838499000895
WinchesterCheriton and Bishops Sutton1,8229471112990001,357
WinchesterDenmead5,4802,622352525584004,083
WinchesterDroxford, Soberton and Hambledon1,643896942340001,224
WinchesterOwslebury and Curdridge3,0621,544170299269002,282
WinchesterShedfield3,2131,384208263539002,394
WinchesterSwanmore and Newtown3,4651,546195526314002,581
WinchesterUpper Meon Valley1,51372388192125001,128
WinchesterWhiteley2,607774127879162001,942
WinchesterWickham3,4797321861,378296002,592
 Total72,73830,7535,96310,2815,0651,30882254,192

The turnout-adjusted results are now combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

Meon ValleyEst. 2017 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
East HampshireClanfield and Finchdean4,0252,008518354203802,938
East HampshireHorndean Catherington and Lovedean1,9921,10313419262001,455
East HampshireHorndean Downs2,0991,10325311948901,532
East HampshireHorndean Hazleton and Blendworth2,0551,121140187391401,501
East HampshireHorndean Kings2,5941,294267252602001,893
East HampshireHorndean Murray2,041985235228212001,489
East HampshireRowlands Castle2,0591,08418321162001,504
HavantCowplain7,7203,5351,00645615448405,635
HavantHart Plain8,1603,2961,8215622235305,955
HavantWaterloo7,8793,5371,14147234225905,751
WinchesterBishops Waltham5,5682,457956479829104,065
WinchesterBoarhunt and Southwick1,2265561411725210895
WinchesterCheriton and Bishops Sutton1,8601,02715414882101,358
WinchesterDenmead5,5942,9047023311192704,083
WinchesterDroxford, Soberton and Hambledon1,67793813911822701,224
WinchesterOwslebury and Curdridge3,1251,761286163482302,281
WinchesterShedfield3,2801,650416202893702,394
WinchesterSwanmore and Newtown3,5371,801389301484202,581
WinchesterUpper Meon Valley1,54483116193202201,127
WinchesterWhiteley2,6611,202337355272101,942
WinchesterWickham3,5511,431552505713202,591
 Total72,73835,6249,9315,9001,4381,301054,192

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Meon Valley

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Meon Valley.

Meon ValleyPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
East HampshireClanfield and Finchdean4,0251,8985293548953142,937
East HampshireHorndean Catherington and Lovedean1,9921,049140192402771,455
East HampshireHorndean Downs2,0991,046259119841771,532
East HampshireHorndean Hazleton and Blendworth2,0551,065146187742271,501
East HampshireHorndean Kings2,5941,2232742521053091,893
East HampshireHorndean Murray2,041929241228562871,489
East HampshireRowlands Castle2,0591,028189211412871,504
HavantCowplain7,7203,3251,028456287513265,635
HavantHart Plain8,1603,0741,84456236384285,955
HavantWaterloo7,8793,3221,163472478289275,751
WinchesterBishops Waltham5,5682,305972479178112194,065
WinchesterBoarhunt and Southwick1,22652314417226264895
WinchesterCheriton and Bishops Sutton1,860976159148402861,357
WinchesterDenmead5,5942,75271833121548194,083
WinchesterDroxford, Soberton and Hambledon1,677892144118313361,224
WinchesterOwslebury and Curdridge3,1251,67629516310235112,282
WinchesterShedfield3,2801,56142520214549112,393
WinchesterSwanmore and Newtown3,5371,70539930110955122,581
WinchesterUpper Meon Valley1,54478916593472851,127
WinchesterWhiteley2,6611,130345355733191,943
WinchesterWickham3,5511,33456250513245122,590
 Total72,73833,60210,1415,9002,7151,58125354,192

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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