Milton Keynes South: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Milton Keynes South: Overview

 Prediction: CON hold 

MP at 2017: Iain Stewart  (CON)
County/Area: Buckinghamshire (South East)
Electorate: 92,494
Turnout: 69.7%
2017
Votes
2017
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON30,65247.5%44.5%
LAB28,92744.9%43.8%
LIB1,8952.9%3.0%
UKIP1,8332.8%5.7%
Green1,1791.8%3.0%
CON Majority1,7252.7%Pred Maj 0.7%
Chance of
winning
CON
52%
LAB
48%
LIB
0%
UKIP
0%
Green
0%

Milton Keynes South : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Milton Keynes South constituency, the 'South East' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatSouth EastAll GB
Party WinnerCONCONCON
Economic Position5° Right4° Right
National Position6° Nat3° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %53%52%52%
British Identity30%29%29%
Good Health50%49%48%
UK Born82%88%88%
Good Education38%43%39%
Good Job55%56%51%
High SEC55%57%51%
Average Age45.949.248.5
ABC1 Class57%60%53%

Milton Keynes South ranks #349 for "Leave", #211 for "Right" and #233 for "National" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Milton Keynes South: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Milton Keynes South: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Milton Keynes South

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Milton Keynes South at the general election of 2017. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Milton Keynes South. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results. The final block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

Milton Keynes SouthActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Milton KeynesBletchley East20151,9502,1052391,2033040
Milton KeynesBletchley Park20152,8792,2913721,2313710
Milton KeynesBletchley West20152,6102,2463661,3544720
Milton KeynesBradwell20151,2621,7792,03280125364
Milton KeynesCampbell Park and Old Woughton20152,1471,3991,80159345441
Milton KeynesDanesborough and Walton20153,7191,56758704980
Milton KeynesLoughton and Shenley20153,2832,0264487213920
Milton KeynesMonkston20152,3731,3261,48603730
Milton KeynesShenley Brook End20152,0971,2621,7966723150
Milton KeynesStony Stratford20152,2081,5432267676690
Milton KeynesTattenhoe20152,6181,3383185222230
Milton KeynesWoughton and Fishermead20151,0593,0512361,0023220

Milton Keynes SouthTurnout-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
Milton KeynesBletchley East8,8792,1882,3622681,35034106,509
Milton KeynesBletchley Park9,8512,9102,3163761,24437507,221
Milton KeynesBletchley West10,1122,7452,3623851,42449607,412
Milton KeynesBradwell2,92243761670327788222,143
Milton KeynesCampbell Park and Old Woughton79119312616253414579
Milton KeynesDanesborough and Walton8,1903,5051,477553046906,004
Milton KeynesLoughton and Shenley9,8233,4412,12447075641107,202
Milton KeynesMonkston5,1141,6018941,002025203,749
Milton KeynesShenley Brook End9,4462,3641,4232,02575835506,925
Milton KeynesStony Stratford7,3952,2111,54522676867005,420
Milton KeynesTattenhoe7,2562,7751,41833755323605,319
Milton KeynesWoughton and Fishermead8,1891,1213,2302501,06134106,003
 Total87,96825,49119,8936,7578,2444,0752664,486

The turnout-adjusted results are now combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

Milton Keynes SouthEst. 2017 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
Milton KeynesBletchley East9,3362,6033,3841053477106,510
Milton KeynesBletchley Park10,3583,4363,2391103449307,222
Milton KeynesBletchley West10,6323,4683,26818138511107,413
Milton KeynesBradwell3,0728491,072112812902,143
Milton KeynesCampbell Park and Old Woughton832266263308130580
Milton KeynesDanesborough and Walton8,6113,6082,0382261511606,003
Milton KeynesLoughton and Shenley10,3283,8222,92418710516407,202
Milton KeynesMonkston5,3771,9531,546163216603,749
Milton KeynesShenley Brook End9,9323,4742,73546413312006,926
Milton KeynesStony Stratford7,7752,6052,32712513522905,421
Milton KeynesTattenhoe7,6293,0401,993135807005,318
Milton KeynesWoughton and Fishermead8,6101,5294,139581799906,004
 Total87,96830,65328,9281,8961,8331,181064,486

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Milton Keynes South

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Milton Keynes South.

Milton Keynes SouthPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
Milton KeynesBletchley East9,3362,4073,31510853614406,510
Milton KeynesBletchley Park10,3583,2183,16211455417407,222
Milton KeynesBletchley West10,6323,2453,18918560019407,413
Milton KeynesBradwell3,0727841,0491131435302,142
Milton KeynesCampbell Park and Old Woughton8322492573025200581
Milton KeynesDanesborough and Walton8,6113,4271,97422918918306,002
Milton KeynesLoughton and Shenley10,3283,6052,84819131424507,203
Milton KeynesMonkston5,3771,8401,50616513010803,749
Milton KeynesShenley Brook End9,9323,2652,66146833419806,926
Milton KeynesStony Stratford7,7752,4422,26912829229005,421
Milton KeynesTattenhoe7,6292,8801,93713823413005,319
Milton KeynesWoughton and Fishermead8,6101,3484,0756135316606,003
 Total87,96828,71028,2421,9303,7041,905064,491

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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