Mole Valley: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Mole Valley: Overview

 Prediction: CON hold 

MP at 2017: Paul Beresford  (CON)
County/Area: Surrey (South East)
Electorate: 74,545
Turnout: 76.1%
2017
Votes
2017
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON35,09261.9%58.1%
LIB10,95519.3%19.3%
LAB7,86413.9%14.3%
Green1,4632.6%3.1%
UKIP1,3522.4%4.7%
OTH00.0%0.5%
CON Majority24,13742.6%Pred Maj 38.8%
Chance of
winning
CON
97%
LIB
2%
LAB
2%
Green
0%
UKIP
0%
OTH
0%

Mole Valley : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Mole Valley constituency, the 'South East' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatSouth EastAll GB
Party WinnerCONCONCON
Economic Position7° Right4° Right
National Position1° Int3° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %46%52%52%
British Identity30%29%29%
Good Health52%49%48%
UK Born90%88%88%
Good Education50%43%39%
Good Job65%56%51%
High SEC69%57%51%
Average Age52.349.248.5
ABC1 Class70%60%53%

Mole Valley ranks #474 for "Leave", #157 for "Right" and #403 for "National" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Mole Valley: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Mole Valley: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Mole Valley

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Mole Valley at the general election of 2017. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Mole Valley. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results. The final block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

Mole ValleyActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
GuildfordClandon and Horsley20156,940536786006,833
GuildfordEffingham2015517099612000
GuildfordLovelace20152904673500303
GuildfordSend20151,721288177002,711
GuildfordTillingbourne20153,76660485900895
Mole ValleyBeare Green20154480363259740
Mole ValleyBookham North20151,92108734493220
Mole ValleyBookham South20151,79301,0833462490
Mole ValleyBox Hill and Headley20155310527186480
Mole ValleyBrockham, Betchworth and Buckland20151,2551061,0182341460
Mole ValleyCapel, Leigh and Newdigate20151,42004154592350
Mole ValleyCharlwood20157700143219780
Mole ValleyDorking North2014418846751762120
Mole ValleyDorking South20151,4813001,6443293830
Mole ValleyFetcham East2014732032331600
Mole ValleyFetcham West2014608087522800
Mole ValleyHolmwoods20145511335046081270
Mole ValleyLeatherhead North20151,0644559155711220
Mole ValleyLeatherhead South20147890327255091
Mole ValleyLeith Hill2015523048246480
Mole ValleyMickleham, Westhumble and Pixham2015558047481900
Mole ValleyOkewood201560201401911540
Mole ValleyWestcott20124683928519500

Mole ValleyTurnout-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
GuildfordClandon and Horsley6,8572,406186273002,3695,234
GuildfordEffingham2,1035080979118001,605
GuildfordLovelace2,02932752828003421,549
GuildfordSend3,35289915092001,4162,557
GuildfordTillingbourne4,2812,009322458004783,267
Mole ValleyBeare Green1,50545003652607401,149
Mole ValleyBookham North4,5001,851084143331003,435
Mole ValleyBookham South4,4051,73701,04933524103,362
Mole ValleyBox Hill and Headley1,56549104871724401,194
Mole ValleyBrockham, Betchworth and Buckland3,5101,21910398922714202,680
Mole ValleyCapel, Leigh and Newdigate3,3901,453042547024002,588
Mole ValleyCharlwood1,81188001632508901,382
Mole ValleyDorking North3,2606651341,07328033702,489
Mole ValleyDorking South5,4801,4973031,66233338704,182
Mole ValleyFetcham East3,0021,2230540528002,291
Mole ValleyFetcham West3,26088401,273332002,489
Mole ValleyHolmwoods4,9951,0922649991,20525203,812
Mole ValleyLeatherhead North5,5251,4356141,23477016504,218
Mole ValleyLeatherhead South3,3371,375057044401592,548
Mole ValleyLeith Hill1,305474043742440997
Mole ValleyMickleham, Westhumble and Pixham1,5745570473819001,201
Mole ValleyOkewood1,501635014820116201,146
Mole ValleyWestcott1,77064153390267001,351
 Total74,31724,7082,18115,7486,7482,5774,76456,726

The turnout-adjusted results are now combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

Mole ValleyEst. 2017 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
GuildfordClandon and Horsley6,8783,871774541133505,234
GuildfordEffingham2,10996012548235301,605
GuildfordLovelace2,035842236423361201,549
GuildfordSend3,3621,746493269381102,557
GuildfordTillingbourne4,2942,302481445112903,268
Mole ValleyBeare Green1,510677150217733101,148
Mole ValleyBookham North4,5142,3242516687012203,435
Mole ValleyBookham South4,4192,196302718499803,363
Mole ValleyBox Hill and Headley1,570745101265602301,194
Mole ValleyBrockham, Betchworth and Buckland3,5211,671324547647402,680
Mole ValleyCapel, Leigh and Newdigate3,4001,8102093878110102,588
Mole ValleyCharlwood1,817928190171405301,382
Mole ValleyDorking North3,2701,2064456183218602,487
Mole ValleyDorking South5,4972,0987911,0524220104,184
Mole ValleyFetcham East3,0111,552242380892802,291
Mole ValleyFetcham West3,2701,427279706591802,489
Mole ValleyHolmwoods5,0101,88974478624315003,812
Mole ValleyLeatherhead North5,5422,1489198881768704,218
Mole ValleyLeatherhead South3,3471,730291454492402,548
Mole ValleyLeith Hill1,3096081382126330997
Mole ValleyMickleham, Westhumble and Pixham1,57969596338165501,200
Mole ValleyOkewood1,506810113133266401,146
Mole ValleyWestcott1,775859171253422601,351
 Total74,31735,0947,86510,9531,3501,464056,726

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Mole Valley

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Mole Valley.

Mole ValleyPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
GuildfordClandon and Horsley6,8783,67679454113662245,233
GuildfordEffingham2,109900131482731171,604
GuildfordLovelace2,035784242423732071,549
GuildfordSend3,3621,6515032699824122,557
GuildfordTillingbourne4,2942,1804944458846153,268
Mole ValleyBeare Green1,5106341542171003751,147
Mole ValleyBookham North4,5142,196264668151140163,435
Mole ValleyBookham South4,4192,070315718128115163,362
Mole ValleyBox Hill and Headley1,570700106265882961,194
Mole ValleyBrockham, Betchworth and Buckland3,5211,57133454712788122,679
Mole ValleyCapel, Leigh and Newdigate3,4001,713219387142114122,587
Mole ValleyCharlwood1,817876195171736061,381
Mole ValleyDorking North3,2701,11345561891199122,488
Mole ValleyDorking South5,4971,9428071,052141223194,184
Mole ValleyFetcham East3,0111,46725138014340112,292
Mole ValleyFetcham West3,2701,33428970611831122,490
Mole ValleyHolmwoods5,0101,747759786333170183,813
Mole ValleyLeatherhead North5,5421,991935888276109204,219
Mole ValleyLeatherhead South3,3471,63530145410937122,548
Mole ValleyLeith Hill1,30957114221230385998
Mole ValleyMickleham, Westhumble and Pixham1,579650101338446161,200
Mole ValleyOkewood1,506767117133537051,145
Mole ValleyWestcott1,775809176253743361,351
 Total74,31732,9778,08410,9532,6891,75726456,724

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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