Monmouth: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Monmouth: Overview

 Prediction: CON hold 

MP at 2017: David Davies  (CON)
County/Area: Gwent (Wales)
Electorate: 64,909
Turnout: 76.6%
2017
Votes
2017
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON26,41153.1%50.0%
LAB18,20536.6%35.6%
LIB2,0644.2%4.2%
Plaid1,3382.7%2.7%
Green9541.9%3.0%
UKIP7621.5%4.5%
CON Majority8,20616.5%Pred Maj 14.4%
Chance of
winning
CON
75%
LAB
25%
LIB
0%
Plaid
0%
Green
0%
UKIP
0%

Monmouth : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Monmouth constituency, the 'Wales' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatWalesAll GB
Party WinnerCONLABCON
Economic Position1° Right10° Left
National Position3° Int3° Int1° Int
EU Leave %48%53%52%
British Identity34%26%29%
Good Health46%47%48%
UK Born95%95%88%
Good Education44%36%39%
Good Job55%46%51%
High SEC58%46%51%
Average Age53.049.648.5
ABC1 Class58%47%53%

Monmouth ranks #442 for "Leave", #319 for "Right" and #452 for "National" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Monmouth: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Monmouth: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Monmouth

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Monmouth at the general election of 2017. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Monmouth. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results. The final block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

MonmouthActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
Other
Votes
MonmouthshireCaerwent201234216100000
MonmouthshireCantref201241531600000
MonmouthshireCastle2012404203700000
MonmouthshireCroesonen201210145900000
MonmouthshireCrucorney201231100000507
MonmouthshireDevauden201235201540000
MonmouthshireDixton with Osbaston20121870198000477
MonmouthshireDrybridge2012260274003750310
MonmouthshireGoetre Fawr2012-1000000
MonmouthshireGrofield2012911442630000
MonmouthshireLansdown201210140400000
MonmouthshireLarkfield20122271642680000
MonmouthshireLlanbadoc201212500000388
MonmouthshireLlanelly Hill20126552780001691,464
MonmouthshireLlanfoist Fawr20123542700000
MonmouthshireLlangybi Fawr2012-1000000
MonmouthshireLlanover201248825200000
MonmouthshireLlantilio Crossenny2012-1000000
MonmouthshireLlanwenarth Ultra201216531800000
MonmouthshireMardy2012161030000292
MonmouthshireMitchel Troy2012-1000000
MonmouthshireOvermonnow2012230212000091
MonmouthshirePortskewett201235928400000
MonmouthshirePriory2012235224930000
MonmouthshireRaglan20122891700000280
MonmouthshireShirenewton2012279037000591
MonmouthshireSt Arvans2012-1000000
MonmouthshireSt Christopher's201220137800000
MonmouthshireSt Kingsmark201242202570000
MonmouthshireSt Mary's20121691871690000
MonmouthshireThornwell201224143800000
MonmouthshireTrellech United201236100000492
MonmouthshireUsk2012-1000000
MonmouthshireWyesham201225420000930103
TorfaenCroesyceiliog North20121751,1060000572
TorfaenCroesyceiliog South201287304054015135
TorfaenLlanyrafon North2012514340000139
TorfaenLlanyrafon South20124873500000144

MonmouthTurnout-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
MonmouthshireCaerwent1,421731344000001,075
MonmouthshireCantref1,593685521000001,206
MonmouthshireCastle1,54769935112100001,171
MonmouthshireCroesonen1,7652411,095000001,336
MonmouthshireCrucorney1,688486000007921,278
MonmouthshireDevauden1,17261702700000887
MonmouthshireDixton with Osbaston1,90231203310007971,440
MonmouthshireDrybridge2,77558761800831136992,100
MonmouthshireGoetre Fawr1,9041,4410000001,441
MonmouthshireGrofield1,46020232058400001,106
MonmouthshireLansdown1,7362631,051000001,314
MonmouthshireLarkfield1,52339728746900001,153
MonmouthshireLlanbadoc1,00818600000577763
MonmouthshireLlanelly Hill3,0665922510001531,3242,320
MonmouthshireLlanfoist Fawr1,5371,08182000001,163
MonmouthshireLlangybi Fawr1,4511,0980000001,098
MonmouthshireLlanover1,763880454000001,334
MonmouthshireLlantilio Crossenny1,3521,0230000001,023
MonmouthshireLlanwenarth Ultra1,07627853600000814
MonmouthshireMardy1,3303360630006091,008
MonmouthshireMitchel Troy994752000000752
MonmouthshireOvermonnow1,84360255500002381,395
MonmouthshirePortskewett1,663703556000001,259
MonmouthshirePriory1,57550848420100001,193
MonmouthshireRaglan1,52745226600004381,156
MonmouthshireShirenewton1,7364040540008561,314
MonmouthshireSt Arvans1,260954000000954
MonmouthshireSt Christopher's2,0625421,019000001,561
MonmouthshireSt Kingsmark2,3721,116068000001,796
MonmouthshireSt Mary's1,61239343539300001,221
MonmouthshireThornwell2,1325731,041000001,614
MonmouthshireTrellech United2,131683000009301,613
MonmouthshireUsk2,2231,6830000001,683
MonmouthshireWyesham1,6824973920018202021,273
TorfaenCroesyceiliog North2,6931931,21700006292,039
TorfaenCroesyceiliog South1,4211575500980272441,076
TorfaenLlanyrafon North1,5829883300002671,198
TorfaenLlanyrafon South2,13080057500002371,612
 Total65,70723,24513,8333,166982652938,83949,739

The turnout-adjusted results are now combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

MonmouthEst. 2017 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
MonmouthshireCaerwent1,404682374562701,076
MonmouthshireCantref1,57471742637020601,206
MonmouthshireCastle1,528677386622515601,171
MonmouthshireCroesonen1,74436186149875001,336
MonmouthshireCrucorney1,6677563083446686501,277
MonmouthshireDevauden1,158611129116317110887
MonmouthshireDixton with Osbaston1,87974339516831525101,440
MonmouthshireDrybridge2,74199283254348210602,100
MonmouthshireGoetre Fawr1,8811,145243625101201,441
MonmouthshireGrofield1,4423194672368393601,105
MonmouthshireLansdown1,715339880142815201,314
MonmouthshireLarkfield1,5055224351571671501,152
MonmouthshireLlanbadoc996398264272022330764
MonmouthshireLlanelly Hill3,0291,05589841747118102,320
MonmouthshireLlanfoist Fawr1,518832275134231701,164
MonmouthshireLlangybi Fawr1,433952124819401,098
MonmouthshireLlanover1,742849403150224501,334
MonmouthshireLlantilio Crossenny1,33685511623082101,023
MonmouthshireLlanwenarth Ultra1,0633264263127230815
MonmouthshireMardy1,3144803656425324201,008
MonmouthshireMitchel Troy9826367511118110752
MonmouthshireOvermonnow1,8216046494031254701,396
MonmouthshirePortskewett1,6437205171034501,259
MonmouthshirePriory1,5565285101201412801,192
MonmouthshireRaglan1,5086733743415223801,156
MonmouthshireShirenewton1,7158043494029335901,314
MonmouthshireSt Arvans1,245817109801460954
MonmouthshireSt Christopher's2,03761290442831001,561
MonmouthshireSt Kingsmark2,3431,1603162749231301,795
MonmouthshireSt Mary's1,5924945071665282101,221
MonmouthshireThornwell2,10667686981244301,612
MonmouthshireTrellech United2,1059484674332685401,612
MonmouthshireUsk2,1961,383218212053501,682
MonmouthshireWyesham1,66263044746201052401,272
TorfaenCroesyceiliog North2,6605651,2275868437802,039
TorfaenCroesyceiliog South1,404340597981123701,076
TorfaenLlanyrafon North1,563326787222124801,197
TorfaenLlanyrafon South2,104881675111691801,610
 Total65,70726,40818,2042,0657629541,338049,739

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Monmouth

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Monmouth.

MonmouthPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
MonmouthshireCaerwent1,40464936263814701,076
MonmouthshireCantref1,574680413383634601,207
MonmouthshireCastle1,528641373636028601,171
MonmouthshireCroesonen1,7443208475048225001,337
MonmouthshireCrucorney1,6677172943584836501,278
MonmouthshireDevauden1,1585841221162726110886
MonmouthshireDixton with Osbaston1,87969838016974695101,441
MonmouthshireDrybridge2,741927809559610610602,099
MonmouthshireGoetre Fawr1,8811,100230766261201,441
MonmouthshireGrofield1,44228545523741523601,106
MonmouthshireLansdown1,7152988661567165201,314
MonmouthshireLarkfield1,50548642315850201501,152
MonmouthshireLlanbadoc996374256274331330764
MonmouthshireLlanelly Hill3,029983873421439818102,320
MonmouthshireLlanfoist Fawr1,5187962621439361701,164
MonmouthshireLlangybi Fawr1,43391811793020401,098
MonmouthshireLlanover1,7428083891640374501,335
MonmouthshireLlantilio Crossenny1,3368231102327182101,022
MonmouthshireLlanwenarth Ultra1,063301417312616230814
MonmouthshireMardy1,3144493546555444201,009
MonmouthshireMitchel Troy98261371112026110752
MonmouthshireOvermonnow1,8215616344172414701,396
MonmouthshirePortskewett1,643681503114018501,258
MonmouthshirePriory1,5564914971214926801,192
MonmouthshireRaglan1,5086373623549353801,156
MonmouthshireShirenewton1,7157633354168485901,314
MonmouthshireSt Arvans1,2457871038252460953
MonmouthshireSt Christopher's2,037564887574211001,561
MonmouthshireSt Kingsmark2,3431,10429927561431301,795
MonmouthshireSt Mary's1,59245649416741422101,221
MonmouthshireThornwell2,106626852960234301,613
MonmouthshireTrellech United2,1058984504480875401,613
MonmouthshireUsk2,1961,3312062265233501,682
MonmouthshireWyesham1,66259143347581202401,273
TorfaenCroesyceiliog North2,6605021,20559129667802,039
TorfaenCroesyceiliog South1,40430758510113243701,076
TorfaenLlanyrafon North1,563289774358264801,198
TorfaenLlanyrafon South2,1048316581264271801,610
 Total65,70724,86917,7002,0972,2161,5161,338049,736

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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