Montgomeryshire: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Montgomeryshire: Overview

 Prediction: CON hold 

MP at 2017: Glyn Davies  (CON)
County/Area: Powys (Wales)
Electorate: 50,755
Turnout: 68.7%
2017
Votes
2017
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON18,07551.8%48.0%
LIB8,79025.2%25.2%
LAB5,54215.9%16.3%
Plaid1,9605.6%5.6%
Green5241.5%2.0%
UKIP00.0%2.4%
OTH00.0%0.5%
CON Majority9,28526.6%Pred Maj 22.8%
Chance of
winning
CON
84%
LIB
6%
LAB
10%
Plaid
1%
Green
0%
UKIP
0%
OTH
0%

Montgomeryshire : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Montgomeryshire constituency, the 'Wales' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatWalesAll GB
Party WinnerCONLABCON
Economic Position7° Right10° Left
National Position2° Nat3° Int1° Int
EU Leave %57%53%52%
British Identity30%26%29%
Good Health45%47%48%
UK Born96%95%88%
Good Education36%36%39%
Good Job41%46%51%
High SEC44%46%51%
Average Age52.449.648.5
ABC1 Class42%47%53%

Montgomeryshire ranks #246 for "Leave", #171 for "Right" and #340 for "National" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Montgomeryshire: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Montgomeryshire: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Montgomeryshire

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Montgomeryshire at the general election of 2017. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Montgomeryshire. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results. The final block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

MontgomeryshireActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
Other
Votes
PowysBanwy2012000000-1
PowysBerriew2012000000-1
PowysBlaen Hafren2012-1000000
PowysCaersws201230900000528
PowysChurchstoke201200273000333
PowysDolforwyn201230800000468
PowysForden201225400000257
PowysGlantwymyn2012000000-1
PowysGuilsfield2012000000-1
PowysKerry201230800000334
PowysLlanbrynmair20128100000329
PowysLlandinam2012000000623
PowysLlandrinio2012000000-1
PowysLlandysilio20128700000404
PowysLlanfair Caereinion20120012210800300
PowysLlanfihangel2012000000-1
PowysLlanfyllin2012-1000000
PowysLlanidloes201230600000661
PowysLlanrhaeadr-ym-Mochnant / Llansilin2012-1000000
PowysLlansantffraid2012441006500244
PowysLlanwddyn2012000000-1
PowysMachynlleth2012000000-1
PowysMeifod2012000000-1
PowysMontgomery20127100000374
PowysNewtown Central2012-1000000
PowysNewtown East2012103026600870
PowysNewtown Llanllwchaiarn North201218905240000
PowysNewtown Llanllwchaiarn West2012-1000000
PowysNewtown South2012278542000177
PowysRhiwcynon2012000000934
PowysTrewern201215900000290
PowysWelshpool Castle20126100000290
PowysWelshpool Gungrog201224204450000
PowysWelshpool Llanerchyddol201200355000358

MontgomeryshireTurnout-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
PowysBanwy757000000545545
PowysBerriew1,047000000753753
PowysBlaen Hafren1,7891,2870000001,287
PowysCaersws1,777472000008071,279
PowysChurchstoke1,21100393000479872
PowysDolforwyn1,504430000006531,083
PowysForden1,10139400000398792
PowysGlantwymyn1,5500000001,1151,115
PowysGuilsfield1,7710000001,2741,274
PowysKerry1,563540000005851,125
PowysLlanbrynmair6979900000402501
PowysLlandinam1,068000000768768
PowysLlandrinio1,6500000001,1871,187
PowysLlandysilio1,33617000000791961
PowysLlanfair Caereinion1,3710022720100558986
PowysLlanfihangel814000000586586
PowysLlanfyllin1,165838000000838
PowysLlanidloes2,190499000001,0771,576
PowysLlanrhaeadr-ym-Mochnant / Llansilin1,6941,2190000001,219
PowysLlansantffraid1,4706220092003441,058
PowysLlanwddyn788000000567567
PowysMachynlleth1,7040000001,2261,226
PowysMeifod999000000719719
PowysMontgomery1,04612000000633753
PowysNewtown Central2,5011,8000000001,800
PowysNewtown East1,56625506570021501,127
PowysNewtown Llanllwchaiarn North1,718328090900001,237
PowysNewtown Llanllwchaiarn West1,377991000000991
PowysNewtown South1,440852661310005541,036
PowysRhiwcynon1,6630000001,1971,197
PowysTrewern1,08027500000502777
PowysWelshpool Castle1,19414900000710859
PowysWelshpool Gungrog2,15154501,00300001,548
PowysWelshpool Llanerchyddol1,738006230006281,251
 Total48,49011,1182663,943293021519,05834,893

The turnout-adjusted results are now combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

MontgomeryshireEst. 2017 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
PowysBanwy792194117139016780544
PowysBerriew1,096382143166022400753
PowysBlaen Hafren1,8731,05922145025801,286
PowysCaersws1,8607051972810217401,278
PowysChurchstoke1,26836811635509240872
PowysDolforwyn1,5746221612140167101,084
PowysForden1,1525338812906360792
PowysGlantwymyn1,62245725225302912501,116
PowysGuilsfield1,8546412213100208201,274
PowysKerry1,6367271212280103901,125
PowysLlanbrynmair730268949907330501
PowysLlandinam1,118378130168025680769
PowysLlandrinio1,7275882632570235701,188
PowysLlandysilio1,398503202192026390962
PowysLlanfair Caereinion1,435422155320014750986
PowysLlanfihangel852271106135013610586
PowysLlanfyllin1,2195887010507680838
PowysLlanidloes2,2927942863830328201,577
PowysLlanrhaeadr-ym-Mochnant / Llansilin1,773919291960136101,218
PowysLlansantffraid1,539691972210133501,057
PowysLlanwddyn82523488164016660568
PowysMachynlleth1,78447430528303313201,227
PowysMeifod1,046334138167022570718
PowysMontgomery1,095354165175026340754
PowysNewtown Central2,6181,261277242031601,799
PowysNewtown East1,6393441564880713201,127
PowysNewtown Llanllwchaiarn North1,798445109642093201,237
PowysNewtown Llanllwchaiarn West1,4417567712909190990
PowysNewtown South1,5072954142730104501,037
PowysRhiwcynon1,7415761943030259901,197
PowysTrewern1,130450133151017250776
PowysWelshpool Castle1,250392209208011390859
PowysWelshpool Gungrog2,251642181705031601,547
PowysWelshpool Llanerchyddol1,8194082275640104201,251
 Total48,49018,0755,5438,79005251,960034,893

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Montgomeryshire

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Montgomeryshire.

MontgomeryshirePredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
PowysBanwy7921731191391319783544
PowysBerriew1,0963531461661826404753
PowysBlaen Hafren1,8731,010271453195861,286
PowysCaersws1,86065620228131287461,278
PowysChurchstoke1,2683351193552114244872
PowysDolforwyn1,57458016521426227151,083
PowysForden1,152503911291910364792
PowysGlantwymyn1,622414256253273512551,115
PowysGuilsfield1,85459222631031278261,274
PowysKerry1,63668412522827163951,124
PowysLlanbrynmair73024996991210332501
PowysLlandinam1,1183491331681929684770
PowysLlandrinio1,72754326825729295761,189
PowysLlandysilio1,3984662061922331395962
PowysLlanfair Caereinion1,4353841593202419755986
PowysLlanfihangel8522491081351416613586
PowysLlanfyllin1,219556731052011684837
PowysLlanidloes2,29273429238338408281,577
PowysLlanrhaeadr-ym-Mochnant / Llansilin1,7738723419629196161,217
PowysLlansantffraid1,53965110122126193551,058
PowysLlanwddyn825212901641419663568
PowysMachynlleth1,784427310283303913261,227
PowysMeifod1,0463071411671726573718
PowysMontgomery1,0953251681751830344754
PowysNewtown Central2,6181,19228424244121691,799
PowysNewtown East1,639301160488271313251,126
PowysNewtown Llanllwchaiarn North1,79839811464230163261,238
PowysNewtown Llanllwchaiarn West1,441718811292414195990
PowysNewtown South1,50725541827325154551,036
PowysRhiwcynon1,74153019930329319961,197
PowysTrewern1,1304201361511921254776
PowysWelshpool Castle1,2503592122082116394859
PowysWelshpool Gungrog2,25158318770537111671,546
PowysWelshpool Llanerchyddol1,81936023256430174261,251
 Total48,49016,7405,6788,7908437091,96016934,889

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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